Ronald E. Weber

COMPUTER SIMULATION OF STATE ELECTORATES

Development of a model for estimating public opinion in the fifty states can have a major impact on research in comparative American state politics. Until now the major studies in this field of political science have generally used aggregate electoral data, demographic data, fiscal data, or elite attitudinal studies to analyze state politics and policymaking. The research reported here was designed to give impetus to attempts to use national surveys in such comparative research. With a technique for estimating public opinion from national data, political scientists can begin to examine empirically the relationslhip between public policy preferences and policymaking at subnational levels. Ronald Weber is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Indiana University; Anne Hopkins is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Hobart and William Smith Colleges; Michael Mezey is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaii; and Frank Munger is Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina.

State Legislative Election Outcomes: Contextual Effects and Legislative Performance Effects

This paper adds to the growing literature on state legislative election outcomes. The empirical focus is on Washington state house elections for 1976 through 1984. Explanatory variables include measures of partisan strength, campaign expenditures, incumbency, and legislative performance. Separate models are developed for contests between Democrats and Republicans and for incumbents and challengers. As has been reported for other states, partisan strength, campaign expenditures, and incumbency are strongly related to outcomes in Washington state legislative elections. Legislative performance variables are weak and inconsistent correlates of election outcomes. The power and consistency of empirical relations over numerous elections and different districting schemes is impressive.

Public support for pro-choice abortion policies in the nation and states: changes and stability after the Roe and Doe decisions.

In 1973 the United States Supreme Court ruled that abortion could be had practically on request during the first 3 months of pregnancy. This article discusses whether the decision led to more public support for that position, and where in the U.S. the increase in support has been most drastic. The most recent public opinion polls indicate about 60% public support legalized abortion, while it was only 45% before 1973. Support has also increased even if pregnancy is not judged to be detrimental to the mothers health, or if it is not the result of rape and/or incest, but even if it is simply requested for economic or purely personal reasons. People under 30, with college education, men and Protestants, seem to be the staunchest supporters of abortion on demand. There has also been an increase in the number of Catholics supporting abortion. Support for abortion increased in most states between 1969-1973, particularly in the West and in the Northwest. The fight to deny federal funds for abortion is still raging in Congress; some studies indicate that the religion of the legislators is the most powerful predictor of voting on abortion, and that the decision is a very personal one, and not easily altered by the lobbying of groups on either side.