Ronelle Burger

Trends in Poverty and Inequality since the Political Transition

Using a constructed data series and another data series based on the All Media and Products surveys (AMPS), this paper explores trends in poverty and income distribution over the post-transition period. To steer clear of an unduly optimistic conclusion, assumptions are chosen that would tend to show the least decline in poverty. Whilst there were no strong trends in poverty for the period 1995 to 2000, both data series show a considerable decline in poverty after 2000, particularly in the period 2002-2004. Poverty dominance testing shows that this decline is independent of the poverty line chosen or whether the poverty headcount, the poverty ratio or the poverty severity ratio are used as measure. We find likely explanations for this strong and robust decline in poverty in the massive expansion of the social grant system as well as possibly in improved job creation in recent years. Whilst the collective income of the poor (using our definition of poverty) was only R27 billion in 2000, the grants (in constant 2000 Rand values) have expanded by R22 billion since. Even if the grants were not well targeted at the poor (and in the past they have been), a large proportion of this spending must have reached the poor, thus leaving little doubt that poverty must have declined substantially. However, there are limits to the expansion of the grant system as a meaNS of poverty alleviation, pointing to the importance of economic growth with job creation for sustaining the decline in poverty The data also shows that there is substantial progress in economic terms amongst some Black, who have managed to join the middle class. This expansion was most rapid at the upper end of the income spectrum – Blacks constituted about half the growth of this segment of the consumer market in the period 1995-2004.

Low Quality Education as a Poverty Trap

The weak quality of education received by most poor children in South Africa places them in permanent disadvantage relative to those attending the mainly more affluent and better performing schools. This document draws from a large number of studies undertaken for a major project and summarises this evidence, which illustrating that low quality schools act as a poverty trap.

What we have learnt from post-1994 innovations in pro-poor service delivery in South Africa: a case study-based analysis

Service delivery is vital for alleviating poverty in South Africa. This paper contributes to the dialogue on how to maximise the impact of pro-poor service delivery by considering evidence from a wide selection of case studies to distinguish the successes and failures of post-1994 pro-poor service delivery. Case evidence brings to light four important points: that decentralisation and participation can reinforce historical distributions of privilege; that community ownership is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for effective service delivery to individuals in rural communities; that when managed well private outsourcing can benefit the poor; and that the abolition of user fees is often not the best way to ensure access to basic services. The paper cautions against overly ambitious and idealistic policy making. When a policy fails because of its lack of flexibility or its disregard for the constraints of the implementation context, this failure should be attributed to short-sighted policy making and not to implementation failure. This paper is based partly on consultation work done under Servaas van der Berg on the effectiveness of alternative social delivery mechanisms – as commissioned by the World Bank for its World Development Report 2004.

The emergent middle class in contemporary South Africa: Examining and comparing rival approaches

In light of the economic, political and social significance of the middle class for South Africas emerging democracy, we critically examine contrasting conceptualisations of social class. We compare four rival approaches to empirical estimation of class: an occupational skill measure, a vulnerability indictor, an income polarisation approach and subjective social status. There is considerable variation in who is classified as middle class based on the definition that is employed and, in particular, a marked difference between subjective and objective notions of social class. We caution against overoptimistic predictions based on the growth of the black middle class. While the surge in the black middle class is expected to help dismantle the association between race and class in South Africa, the analysis suggests that notions of identity may adjust more slowly to these new realities and consequently racial integration and social cohesion may emerge with a substantial lag.

Have public health spending and access in South Africa become more equitable since the end of apartheid

This study investigates whether health spending and access to services in South Africa have become more or less pro-poor over time. We find that over the post-apartheid period health spending has become significantly more pro-poor. In addition to the rising share of the health budget allocated to public clinics, there has been an increase in the share of public clinic and hospital spending going to the poor and a rising share of the health budget allocated to public clinics. In addition, between 1993 and 2008 there were improvements in both financial access to public health services – as measured by the incidence of catastrophic costs – and physical access to public health facilities – as measured by reduced travel time. Given that substantial progress has been made with fiscal equity and access to health, problems that users complain about – rude staff, long queues and lack of medicine – have moved higher on the policy agenda.

NGO Accountability in Africa

Because the accountability movement has largely been driven by donors and governments, the focus has often been on the responsibilities and obligations of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) toward donors and governments. This emphasis appears misplaced given that governments and donors already exert substantial influence over the NGO sector via funding and legislation. In contrast, NGO accountability toward community beneficiaries requires more attention and more advocacy because beneficiaries are often dependent on NGOs that have been contracted by third parties to serve them, but voiceless and powerless in this relationship. As a result, community beneficiaries frequently struggle to hold NGOs accountable. There have been calls for new ways of thinking about accountability and a focus on improving the quality and appropriateness of accountability mechanisms. In African countries especially, there is an additional motivation to rethink existing mechanisms because of concerns about the suitability of many of them to the context and circumstances of the continent. While there is a strong theoretical case for promoting accountability—especially within the African context—there is little evidence to suggest that the dominant models of accountability have been successful in promoting ethical behaviour, transparency, and effectiveness among African NGOs.

Receive Grants or Perish? The Survival Prospects of Ugandan Non-Governmental Organisations

Abstract This study examines survival patterns in a large, representative panel of Ugandan non-governmental organisations (NGOs) between 2002 and 2008. It finds no evidence that more effective or more altruistic NGOs have a greater likelihood of survival. The main determinant of survival appears to be access to grants, and NGOs without grants struggle to survive. An investigation of the grant allocation mechanism suggests that effectiveness does not increase an NGOs likelihood of receiving a grant. Grant allocation appears to be neither fair nor effective, but rather to be awarded on the basis of habit rather than merit: once a grant has been allocated there is a strong tendency for it to persist. The odds are stacked against small NGOs that have not previously received grants. A picture emerges of two parallel NGO worlds: one where revenues are small, variable and hard to come by and survival is not very likely, and the other where revenues are high, more stable and more accessible and survival is more likely. The study suggests it may be difficult for an NGO to move from the former to the latter.

School effectiveness in Zambia: The origins of differences between rural and urban outcomes

Surveys have shown that Zambian urban residents have significantly higher schooling attainment rates than rural residents and are more likely to be literate. To address this inequality in education outcomes it is important to understand to what extent this is a result of a resource gap (for example, differences in teachers or textbooks) or different returns on resources (for example, an additional teacher makes more of a difference in urban areas). To explore this idea this study performed an Oaxaca decomposition on the SACMEQ II data set for Zambia. The results showed that the rural–urban gap was attributable both to differences in the presence of resources (55% of the gap) and differences in the returns on resources (45% of the gap). Since returns on resources are considerably lower in rural areas, additional resource investment alone is unlikely to close the gap between rural and urban schooling outcomes.

The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis.

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently its total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition will be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improvements in education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to unobservables. These may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in both intra-household relationships and the social role of women.

Have Pro-Poor Health Policies Improved the Targeting of Spending and the Effective Delivery of Health Care in South Africa?

Abstract: Since 1994 there have been a number of radical changes in the public health care system in South Africa. Budgets have been reallocated, decision making was decentralised, the clinic network was expanded and user fees for primary health care were abolished. The paper examines how these recent changes have affected the incidence of spending and the accessibility and quality of health care. The paper finds that between 1995 and 2003 there have been advances in the pro-poor spending incidence of both clinics and hospitals. The increased share of the health budget allocated to the more pro-poor clinic services has contributed further to the improvement in the targeting of overall health spending. Also, it appears that the elimination of user fees for clinics and the expansion of the clinic network have helped to make health services more affordable and geographically accessible to the poor and were associated with a notable rise in health service utilisation for individuals in the bottom two expenditure quintiles.