Ronit Nirel

Advocacy Activities in Nonprofit Human Service Organizations Implications for Policy

The article describes political and advocacy activity in nonprofit human service organizations for children, elderly people, women, and people with disabilities. On the whole, the level of their political activity was found to be moderate, as perceived by the directors of the organizations. The main findings reveal a significant positive correlation between advocacy and political activity in nonprofit organizations and their perceived influence on setting the public agenda. Analysis of the findings indicates that the larger the number of volunteers in the organization, the greater the organizations political influence. In addition, it was found that the more dependent the organizations were on funding from local authorities, the lower the level of advocacy and political activity. The effectiveness of strategies used to attain political influence was also analyzed. The most effective strategy was exerting pressure on decision makers, both on the national and local levels.

SPATIOTEMPORAL PREDICTIVE MODELS OF MEDITERRANEAN VEGETATION DYNAMICS

Empirical modeling of vegetation dynamics can be used for predictive pur- poses. The goal of the present study is to construct and evaluate possible approaches for empirical modeling of vegetation dynamics, and to investigate their potential use in planning and management. An empirical model of mediterranean vegetation dynamics was constructed using a case study of vegetation change in an area in the Galilee mountains, northern Israel, between 1964 and 1992. Present vegetation in any location was modeled as a function of past vegetation and environmental factors (e.g., topography and various disturbances); future vegetation was then modeled as a function of current vegetation and effects of environmental factors. In order to assess model performance, we compared the actual vegetation map with maps representing model realizations for the study area and for an external validation area. Three types of measures were used to compare the predicted and actual vegetation maps: overall vegetation composition, pattern indices, and cell-by-cell match. We compared the performance of logistic vs. linear models and of stochastic vs. deterministic realizations of a logistic model. Our results indicate that landscape-scale vegetation dynamics can be fairly well modeled using a few biologically important variables. The logistic and linear models had similar performance, in spite of the reduced information on which the logistic models were based. The use of only a 4% sample of the database resulted in a negligible reduction in model performance. Model performance was reduced, but was still fair, when applied to an external area. The merits and limitations of this modeling approach are discussed in comparison with other approaches for modeling vegetation dynamics.

Seeding EffectivenessThe Interaction of Desert Dust and the Southern Margins of Rain Cloud Systems in Israel

Abstract Statistical analyses suggest that cloud seeding has caused a net increase of rainfall only in northern Israel. These analyses also identify the reported desert dust as a detrimental factor for the seeding effectiveness. This paper deals with the question of what role the interaction of desert dust and the dynamic properties of the clouds plays in the determination of divergent seeding effects in Israel. This question is investigated through analyses of the cloud seeding effectiveness in northern Israel (Israel-2 experiment and the operational seeding) stratified into days when the southern margins of the rain cloud system (SMR) locations were in the north or in the south and into “dust” and “no-dust” days. The results indicate that the SMR plays an important role on dust days, where a seeding effect of 11% is indicated an days with the SMR in the south, and an effect of −11% is indicated on days with the SMR in the north. On no-dust days positive effects were indicated regardless of the location ...

Long-term results of the Israeli National Studies in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: INS 84, 89 and 98

Long-term results of the Israeli National Studies in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: INS 84, 89 and 98

The Effectiveness of Service Work: An Analysis of Recidivism

The Israeli “service work” law of 1987 enables a court to commute prison sentences of up to 6 months to service work in the community. This paper examines the correctional effectiveness of this new sanction by comparing the rate of recidivism (over a period of 14 months) among 407 offenders sentenced to service work to that of 950 comparable offenders sentenced to imprisonment. As the research design is quasi-experimental, an adjustment for confounders is carried out using the propensity score (PS) methodology. The estimation of the odds ratio of recidivism with respect to sanction comprises two steps: (a) the PS, which is the conditional probability of assignment to a particular sanction given a set of confounders, is estimated by a logistic model; and (b) the conditional probability of recidivism, given the PS and other covariates, is estimated by a second model. The findings indicate that before an adjustment for the systematic differences between the two sanctions was carried out, the odds for recidivism among prisoners were 2.4 times higher than the odds for service workers. After the adjustment, the odds ratio was reduced to 1.7. This estimate indicates that the service work sanction has a considerable correctional effect. The need to address additional criteria for the effectiveness of service work (e.g., net-widening) is emphasized.

Estimation of the Effect of Operational Seeding on Rain Amounts in Israel

Abstract During the period 1961x9675, two cloud seeding experiments were carried out in Israel. The first Israeli experiment had a two-target crossover design. The results indicated a positive seeding effect of 15%, significant at 0.9%. The second experiment indicated an enhancement of 13%, significant at 2.8%, in rain amounts in the northern part of Israel. Since November 1975, seeding in the north has been operational. The objective of this paper is to develop a method for estimating the seeding effect of the operational seeding. The proposed method is based on a historical logarithmic model of target precipitation on control precipitation. It is argued that the validity of the proposed approach stems from the stability of the relation between target and control precipitation over time, and the robustness of the meteorological system in the region. The seeding effect in the operational period 1976x9690, on the annual rainfall, is estimated by a 6% increase in rain amounts, with a 95% confidence interval of ...

On the Ratio of Sulfur Dioxide to Nitrogen Oxides as an Indicator of Air Pollution Sources

Abstract The ratio of sulfur dioxide to nitrogen oxides (RSN = SO2/NOx) is one indicator of air pollution sources. The role of this ratio in source attribution is illustrated here for the Ashdod area, located in the southern coastal plain of Israel. The main sources of pollution in the area are the tall stacks of the Eshkol power plant, the stacks of oil refineries, and areal sources (stationary and mobile). The factors that affect RSN are studied using four regression models: a binary regression tree in original scale, a tree in logarithmic scale, a data partition produced by a combination of the two trees, and a linear regression model. All models have similar relative prediction error, with the combined partition best highlighting the sources of variability in RSN: (a) very low values (interquartile range of [0.12, 0.48]) are associated with traffic, (b) low values ([0.43, 1.00]) are attributed to the power plant and to daytime emissions of local industry, (c) medium values ([0.74, 1.90]) are associate...

The Regression-Based Discrepancy Definition of Learning Disability: A Critical Appraisal

The regression-based discrepancy definition of learning disabilities has been suggested by Rutter and Yule as an improvement of the well-known and much criticized achievement–intelligence discrepancy definition, whereby the examinee’s predicted reading attainment is substituted for the intelligence score in the discrepancy expression. Even though the regression-based discrepancy definition has been with us for more than 30 years, critical examination of this approach is scarce. This article fills this lacuna by examining the implications of two variables in the model on the diagnosis of learning disabilities: (a) the effect of predictive validity on the proportion of examinees identified as learning disabled, and (b) the effect of the predictor’s identity on the identity of the examinees diagnosed with learning disabilities. Implications of these effects concerning the validity of the regression-based discrepancy model and of the results of its implementation are discussed.

Respiratory hospitalizations of children living near a hazardous industrial site adjusted for prevalent dust: A case–control study

The Neot Hovav Industrial Park (IP), located in southern Israel, hosts 23 chemical industry facilities and the national site for treatment of hazardous waste. Yet, information about its impact on the health of local population has been mostly ecological, focused on Bedouins and did not control for possible confounding effect of prevalent dust storms. This case-control study examined whether living near the IP could lead to increased risk of pediatric hospitalization for respiratory diseases. Cases (n=3608) were residents of the Beer Sheva sub-district aged 0-14 years who were admitted for respiratory illnesses between 2004 and 2009. These were compared to children admitted for non-respiratory conditions (n=3058). Home addresses were geocoded and the distances from the IP to the childs residence were calculated. The association between hospitalization and residential distance from the IP was examined for three age groups (0-1, 2-6, 7-14) by logistic regressions adjusting for gender, socioeconomic status, urbanity and temperature. We found that infants in the first year of life who lived within 10 km of the IP had increased risk of respiratory hospitalization when compared with those living >20 km from the IP (adjusted odds ratio, OR=2.07, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.19-3.59). In models with both distance from the IP and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM(10)) the estimated risk was modestly attenuated (OR=1.96, 95% CI: 1.09-3.51). Elevated risk was also observed for children 2-5 years of age but with no statistical significance (OR=1.16, 95% CI: 0.76-1.76). Our findings suggest that residential proximity to a hazardous industrial site may contribute to early life respiratory admissions, beyond that of prevailing PM(10).

Respiratory hospitalizations of children and residential exposure to traffic air pollution in Jerusalem

Although exposure to traffic-related air pollution has been reported to be associated with respiratory morbidity in children, this association has not been examined in Israel. Jerusalem is ranked among the leading Israeli cities in transport-related air pollution. This case-control study examined whether pediatric hospitalization for respiratory diseases in Jerusalem is related to residential exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Cases (n=4844) were Jerusalem residents aged 0-14 years hospitalized for respiratory illnesses between 2000 and 2006. These were compared to children admitted electively (n=2161) or urgently (n=3085) for non-respiratory conditions. Individual measures of exposure included distance from residence to nearest main road, the total length of main roads, traffic volume, and bus load within buffers of 50, 150, and 300m around each address. Cases were more likely to have any diesel buses passing within 50m of their home (adjusted odds ratios=1.16 and 1.10, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-1.30 and 1.01-1.20 for elective and emergency controls, respectively). Our findings indicated that older girls (5-14) and younger boys (0-4) had increased risks of respiratory hospitalization, albeit with generally widened confidence intervals due to small sample sizes. Our results add to the limited body of evidence regarding associations between diesel exhaust particles and respiratory morbidity. The findings also point to possible differential associations between traffic-related air pollution and pediatric hospitalization among boys and girls in different age groups.