Roumeen Islam

Does More Transparency Go Along with Better Governance

This paper explores the link between information flows and governance. It develops a new indicator, the transparency index, which measures the frequency with which governments update economic data that they make available to the public. The paper also uses the existence of a Freedom of Information Act and the length of time for which it has been in existence as an indicator reflecting the overall legislative environment for transparency. Measures of the type developed in this paper have hitherto not been used in the cross-country literature on governance and growth. Cross-country regression estimation shows that countries with better information flows as measured by these indices also govern better.

Does Aid Help Improve Economic Institutions

Aid is expected to promote better living standards by raising investment and growth. But aid may also affect institutions directly. In theory, these effects may or may not work in the same direction as those on investment. The authors examine the effect of aid on economic institutions and find that aid has neither a positive nor a negative impact on existing measures of economic institutions. They find the results using pooled data for non-overlapping five-year periods, confirmed by pooled annual regressions for a large panel of countries and by pure cross-section regressions. The authors explicitly allow for time invariant effects that are country specific and find the results to be robust to model specifications, estimation methods, and different data sets.

Institutional reform and the judiciary: which way forward?

The author presents some general lessons in institution-building that has relevance for judiciary reform. She emphasizes the value of simplicity in design commensurate with country capacity, the importance of innovation and experimentation, and of economic openness in effective institution-building. The author underscores how the incentives of individuals depend on both the details of institutional design within the judiciary and also some critical institutions external to the judiciary. Finally she argues for the need to ground reform initiatives on a solid empirical and comparative approach. The author illustrates some of these issues by drawing on a recent project conducted by the World Bank and other institutions.

Trade and Harmonization: If Your Institutions Are Good, Does it Matter If They Are Different?

Good institutional quality (function) and similar institutional design (form) can promote international trade by reducing transactions costs. The authors evaluate the relative importance of function versus form in a gravity model, using an indicator of different legal systems as a proxy for differences in form, together with indicators of overall institutional quality. They find that good institutions promote trade much more than similar legal systems and have much more explanatory power. This effect is economically large-up to 10 times the effect of different legal systems. Moreover, better infrastructure matters as much as good institutions.

Volatility and Macroeconomic Paradigms for Rich and Poor

Michael Bruno has left us with legacies that include an empiricism free of ideology, a curiosity about what the real facts are, a scepticism about the conventional wisdom, and a willingness to listen to a wide range of opinions. His interest in macroeconomics resulted in one of the most influential books of the 1980s, The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation, which examined why the conventional Phillips curve had been turned on its head by institutional mechanisms. His interest in macroeconomic policy was applied to real life when he led the successful Israeli heterodox inflation stabilization effort of 1985, first as adviser and then as central bank governor. As Chief Economist of the World Bank, he emphasized research and economic and sector work relative to lending activities and external relations. In research, while Chief Economist, he showed how high inflation was robustly and negatively related to economic growth, while there was little evidence of a robust relationship between inflation and growth at low rates of inflation (say below 40 per cent a year). Michael Bruno’s legacy lives on in the many people whom he inspired by being a good and curious listener and a thoughtful and non-ideological researcher. While inflation was the central macroeconomic issue of the 1980s,

Devaluation, Asymmetric Money Demand, and Investment in a Small Open Economy

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and investment when cash is required to purchase some consumption goods in a small open economy while others are purchased with foreign currency or on credit. Devaluation acts as a differential tax on the good that must be purchased with domestic money and lowers the return to the factor used intensively in this sector. If this sector is relatively labor intensive, the steady-state capital stock will increase in response to higher inflation. Nonneutrality of inflation exists even though money is only held for consumption purposes. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

One more time : what are institutions and how do they change?

This paper defines institutions, presents their basic characteristics, and discusses forces for institutional change. It draws on a wealth of research and study by scholars in different fields and follows from the flagship 2002 World Development Report on this topic, including relevant new research since then that illuminates key issues. The definition of institutions includes rules and organizations (specifically rules guiding peoples’ actions). The paper emphasizes the diversity of institutions that can effectively perform similar functions, the arguments for and against standardization of institutions across specific transactions or groups, and the implications of these choices. It highlights the relationship between informal and formal institutions. It discusses forces for institutional change influencing all economies, ranging from external shocks (whether they be economic or weather-related shocks or driven by wars) to internal dynamics, such as those following population growth or compositional changes, and those following technological innovations. Many of these forces have a two-way relationship with institutions: they are affected by them and, in turn, influence whether and when they change. A special section is devoted to institutional transplants and their effectiveness. The paper concludes with a discussion of whether and under what conditions institutional change can be externally directed and the lessons for aid donors.

Credit composition, output composition, and external balances

This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on economic outcomes. Specifically, it asks whether credit extended to households and firms has an impact on the share of exports in gross domestic product and on the trade balance. The analysis finds that although household credit is not positively related to export shares or trade balances, firm credit is significantly related to both. The relationship with export shares is particularly strong and robust. Higher shares of credit going to firms means a higher export share in gross domestic product and stronger trade balances (any effect of credit on imports is subsumed by the larger effect on exports). Household credit has a negative or insignificant relationship with the trade balance and the share of exports in gross domestic product. Credit may also affect the choice between types of goods produced domestically, not just whether they are produced for export or domestic consumption. The paper finds that household credit has a negative relationship with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product. Firm credit is positively associated with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product, while the share of services does not seem to be affected by either.

Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility: Searching for the Perfect Fit

This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on growth, looking at the effect of the financial system on volatility in gross domestic product per capita and consumption per capita growth. It also examines the impact of credit on the composition of growth. The findings show that financial development smooths growth in gross domestic product and consumption per capita, but only up to a point. At high levels of credit, further credit is positively associated with volatility even after controlling for the quality of institutions and periods of financial crises. In large financial systems, finance may not help individuals smooth consumption volatility. The threshold at which finances effect may be volatility enhancing may be lower than previously thought. In terms of the impact on growth, total credit (and credit to firms) has a nonlinear relationship, with rising credit supporting higher growth up to a point, beyond which the additional impact of finance on growth is negative. This can be explained by finance flowing into less productive activities (or drawing other resources into less productive activities). In addition, household credit is negatively related to manufacturing sector growth, although credit to firms has a positive relationship to manufacturing growth. This may be explained by the fact that much of household credit is used to finance the consumption (including imports) of goods and services broadly (not just manufacturing sector goods) or investment in housing.

Growth recovery in southern Europe : a dozen lessons, old and new

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain entered a period of severe economic and financial stress in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. Their collective experience confirmed the primacy of total debt, private or public, in affecting the onset of, depth of, and recovery from economic crises. The year 2010 and the years following have demonstrated the ways in which policy responses to crisis-related downturns must be adapted when major international partners experience simultaneous growth slowdowns and markets exhibit increased risk aversion. This paper compares the recovery experience of these countries in light of recent policy debates and research on the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms. It highlights that (a) the quality of the policies adopted to stabilize economies in the short run affects growth recovery in the long run; and (b) macroeconomic policies (fiscal and monetary) are most effective in supporting growth when they take into account structural differences between countries and when policies complement each other. The country experiences indicate that a holistic view of factors affecting investment, exports, and employment is needed to understand the impact of macroeconomic and structural reforms on output. In the absence of such a holistic view, policy may neglect to influence the binding constraints to growth.