Roxanne Cooksey

Risk factors for childhood obesity at age 5: Analysis of the Millennium Cohort Study

BackgroundWeight at age 5 is a predictor for future health of the individual. This study examines risk factors for childhood obesity with a focus on ethnicity.MethodsData from the Millennium Cohort study were used. 17,561 singleton children of White/European (n = 15,062), Asian (n = 1,845) or African (n = 654) background were selected. Logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests were used to examine factors associated with obesity at age 5. All participants were interviewed in their own homes. The main exposures examined included; Birth weight, sedentary lifestyle, family health behaviours, ethnicity, education and income.ResultsChildren with a sedentary lifestyle, large at birth, with high risk family health behaviours (overweight mothers, smoking near the child, missing breakfast) and from a family with low income or low educational attainment, were more likely to be obese regardless of ethnicity. Feeding solid food before 3 months was associated with obesity in higher income White/European families. Even when controlling for socioeconomic status, ethnic background is an important independent risk factor for childhood obesity [Odds ratio of obesity; was 1.7 (95%CI: 1.2-2.3) for Asian and 2.7 (95%CI: 1.9-3.9) for African children, compared to White/European]. The final adjusted model suggests that increasing income does not have a great impact on lowering obesity levels, but that higher academic qualifications are associated with lower obesity levels [Odds of obesity: 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52-0.77) if primary carer leaves school after age 16 compared at age 16].ConclusionsEducation of the primary carer is an important modifiable factor which can be targeted to address rising obesity levels in children. Interventions should be family centred supporting and showing people how they can implement lifestyle changes in their family.

No Increased Rate of Acute Myocardial Infarction or Stroke Among Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis—A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Routine Data

OBJECTIVES To examine if people with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) are at higher risk of acute myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke compared to those without AS. METHODS Primary care records were linked with all hospital admissions and deaths caused by MI or stroke in Wales for the years 1999-2010. The linked data were then stratified by AS diagnosis and survival analysis was used to obtain the incidence rate of MI and separately cerebrovascular disease (CVD)/stroke. Cox regression was used to adjust for gender and age. Logistic regression was used to examine prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia for those with AS compared to those without. RESULTS There were 1686 AS patients (75.9% male, average age 46.1 years) compared to 1,206,621 controls (48.9% male, average age 35.9 years). Age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratios for MI were 1.28 (95% CI: 0.93 to 1.74) P = 0.12, and for CVD/stroke 1.0 (95% CI: 0.73 to 1.39) P = 0.9, in AS compared to controls. The prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, but not hyperlipidemia/hypercholesterolemia, was higher in AS. CONCLUSIONS There is no increase in the MI or CVD/stroke rates in patients with AS compared to those without AS, despite higher rates of hypertension, which may be related to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use.

The information needs of people living with ankylosing spondylitis: a questionnaire survey.

BackgroundToday, health care is patient-centred with patients more involved in medical decision making and taking an active role in managing their disease. It is important that patients are appropriately informed about their condition and that their health care needs are met. We examine the information utilisation, sources and needs of people with Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS).MethodsParticipants in an existing AS cohort study were asked to complete a postal or online questionnaire containing closed and open-ended questions, regarding their information access and needs. Participants were stratified by age and descriptive statistics were performed using STATA 11, while thematic analysis was performed on open-ended question narratives. Qualitative data was handled in Microsoft Access and explored for emerging themes and patterns of experiences.ResultsDespite 73% of respondents having internet access, only 49% used the internet to access information regarding AS. Even then, this was only infrequently. Only 50% of respondents reported accessing written information about AS, which was obtained mainly in specialist clinics. Women were more likely than men to access information (63% (women) 46% (men)) regardless of the source, while younger patients were more likely to use online sources. The main source of non-written information was the rheumatologist. Overall, the respondents felt there was sufficient information available, but there was a perception that the tone was often too negative. The majority (95%) of people would like to receive a regular newsletter about AS, containing positive practical and local information. Suggestions were also made for more information about AS to be made available to non-specialist medical professionals and the general public.ConclusionsThere appears to be sufficient information available for people with AS in the UK and this is mostly accessed by younger AS patients. Many patients, particularly men, choose not to access AS information and concerns were raised about its negative tone. Patients still rely on written and verbal information from their specialists. Future initiatives should focus on the delivery of more positive information, targeting younger participants in particular and increasing the awareness in the general population and wider non-specialist medical community.

Frequency and characteristics of disease flares in ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. To examine the characteristics and frequency of disease flares in a cohort of people with AS. Methods. A prospective data set from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a probiotic treatment/placebo was utilized to examine disease flares in 134 people with AS. Disease flares were defined as either minor/localized flares (pain/swelling localized to one area with fatigue and stiffness) or major/generalized flares (generalized pain, hot burning joints, muscle spasm, fever, sweating, extreme fatigue and stiffness). Results. One hundred and thirty-four people were followed up for 1216 person follow-up weeks and there were 71.4 flares per 100 person-weeks. Of these, 12 were major/generalized flares and 59.4 were minor/localized flares. People who experienced at least one major/generalized flare during the study period had worse disease during flare-free periods in terms of disease activity, impaired function, self-reported night pain and iritis compared with those who did not experience any major/generalized flares during the study. Major/generalized flares lasted for an average of 2.4 weeks (s.d. 2.7), and were preceded by and followed by a minor/localized flare in 92% (55/60) of cases. Conclusion. Seventy per cent of people with AS felt they had a flare in any given week. Those who experienced major/generalized flares appear to have more severe and active disease even during periods when not in flare, compared with those who do not experience major/generalized flares. These results have implications for the timing of assessments prior to starting anti-TNF therapy and suggest that the presence of major flares may be helpful in identifying patients with severe disease.

The effect of physical activity and motivation on function in ankylosing spondylitis: A cohort study

Objectives Exercise is reported to improve function for people with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) but it is not clear if this effect is causal or if patients with milder disease find it easier to exercise. This study examines the effect of exercise and motivation to exercise on function, while controlling for disease severity. Methods Participants who were members of an existing AS cohort were asked about physical activity, motivation to exercise, function, and disease severity. Path analysis on STATA was used to examine the correlation between factors associated with function at time of exercise and with function after 3 months of follow-up. Results The response rate to the questionnaire was 88% (326/371). Improvement in function was greatest for people with higher physical activity levels and those who were more motivated to exercise—this was especially the case for patients with the most severe disease activity. The effect of motivation to exercise not only had a direct effect on function, but also an indirect effect of improving activity levels thereby improving both current and future function. People with high intrinsic motivation (driven by pleasure) had the greatest benefit to activity and function. Conclusions Exercise does improve function, especially for those with severe disease. In addition, motivation alone improves function as much as exercising itself. Therefore, interventions targeting motivation to exercise would have as much effect on improving function as interventions offering exercise opportunities. In addition, any intervention that both improves motivation and increases opportunities to exercise would have a 2-fold influence on function.

Population based absolute and relative survival to 1 year of people with diabetes following a myocardial infarction: a cohort study using hospital admissions data.

BackgroundPeople with diabetes who experience an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have a higher risk of death and recurrence of AMI. This study was commissioned by the Department for Transport to develop survival tables for people with diabetes following an AMI in order to inform vehicle licensing.MethodsA cohort study using data obtained from national hospital admission datasets for England and Wales was carried out selecting all patients attending hospital with an MI for 2003-2006 (inclusion criteria: aged 30+ years, hospital admission for MI (defined using ICD 10 code I21-I22). STATA was used to create survival tables and factors associated with survival were examined using Cox regression.ResultsOf 157,142 people with an MI in England and Wales between 2003-2006, the relative risk of death or recurrence of MI for those with diabetes (n = 30,407) in the first 90 days was 1.3 (95%CI: 1.26-1.33) crude rates and 1.16 (95%CI: 1.1-1.2) when controlling for age, gender, heart failure and surgery for MI) compared with those without diabetes (n = 129,960). At 91-365 days post AMI the risk was 1.7 (95% CI 1.6-1.8) crude and 1.50 (95%CI: 1.4-1.6) adjusted. The relative risk of death or re-infarction was higher at younger ages for those with diabetes and directly after the AMI (Relative risk; RR: 62.1 for those with diabetes and 28.2 for those without diabetes aged 40-49 [compared with population risk]).ConclusionsThis is the first study to provide population based tables of age stratified risk of re-infarction or death for people with diabetes compared with those without diabetes. These tables can be used for giving advice to patients, developing a baseline to compare intervention studies or developing license or health insurance guidelines.

Defining Disease Phenotypes in Primary Care Electronic Health Records by a Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study in Identifying Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Objectives 1) To use data-driven method to examine clinical codes (risk factors) of a medical condition in primary care electronic health records (EHRs) that can accurately predict a diagnosis of the condition in secondary care EHRs. 2) To develop and validate a disease phenotyping algorithm for rheumatoid arthritis using primary care EHRs. Methods This study linked routine primary and secondary care EHRs in Wales, UK. A machine learning based scheme was used to identify patients with rheumatoid arthritis from primary care EHRs via the following steps: i) selection of variables by comparing relative frequencies of Read codes in the primary care dataset associated with disease case compared to non-disease control (disease/non-disease based on the secondary care diagnosis); ii) reduction of predictors/associated variables using a Random Forest method, iii) induction of decision rules from decision tree model. The proposed method was then extensively validated on an independent dataset, and compared for performance with two existing deterministic algorithms for RA which had been developed using expert clinical knowledge. Results Primary care EHRs were available for 2,238,360 patients over the age of 16 and of these 20,667 were also linked in the secondary care rheumatology clinical system. In the linked dataset, 900 predictors (out of a total of 43,100 variables) in the primary care record were discovered more frequently in those with versus those without RA. These variables were reduced to 37 groups of related clinical codes, which were used to develop a decision tree model. The final algorithm identified 8 predictors related to diagnostic codes for RA, medication codes, such as those for disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, and absence of alternative diagnoses such as psoriatic arthritis. The proposed data-driven method performed as well as the expert clinical knowledge based methods. Conclusion Data-driven scheme, such as ensemble machine learning methods, has the potential of identifying the most informative predictors in a cost-effective and rapid way to accurately and reliably classify rheumatoid arthritis or other complex medical conditions in primary care EHRs.

Patient perspectives of managing fatigue in Ankylosing Spondylitis, and views on potential interventions: a qualitative study

BackgroundFatigue is a major component of living with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), though it has been largely over-looked, and currently there are no specific agreed management strategies.MethodsThis qualitative exploratory study involved participants who are members of an existing population-based ankylosing spondylitis (PAS) cohort. Participants residing in South West Wales were invited to participate in a focus group to discuss; (1) effects of fatigue, (2) self-management strategies and (3) potential future interventions. The focus groups were audio-recorded and the transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis.ResultsParticipants consisted of 3 males/4 females (group 1) and 4 males/3 females (group 2), aged between 35 and 73 years (mean age 53 years). Three main themes were identified: (1) The effects of fatigue were multi-dimensional with participants expressing feelings of being ‘drained’ (physical), ‘upset’ (emotional) and experiencing ‘low-mood’ (psychological); (2) The most commonly reported self-management strategy for fatigue was a balanced combination of activity (exercise) and rest. Medication was reluctantly taken due to side-effects and worries over dependency; (3) Participants expressed a preference for psychological therapies rather than pharmacological for managing fatigue. Information on Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) was received with interest, with recommendations for delivery in a group format with the option of distance-based delivery for people who were not able to attend a group course.ConclusionsPatients frequently try and manage their fatigue without any formal guidance or support. Our research indicates there is a need for future research to focus on psychological interventions to address the multi-faceted aspects of fatigue in AS.

Severe flare as a predictor of poor outcome in ankylosing spondylitis: a cohort study using questionnaire and routine data linkage

OBJECTIVE To explore severe flare and constant disease pattern (no periods of remission) in AS as predictors of poor outcomes [impaired function, unemployment/early retirement, work impairment, anti-TNF, surgery, frequent general practitioner (GP) visits, depression and anxiety]. METHODS Three hundred and forty-eight AS patients completed questionnaires about their experience with disease flares. Questionnaire data were linked to electronic medical records to examine visits to GPs and hospital admission data. Outcomes were stratified in two ways: self-reported experience of severe flare and constant disease pattern using the flare illustration tool. RESULTS The majority of patients (72%, 208/289) experienced flare pre-diagnosis. Severe flares were reported by 58% (202/348) of participants (self-report); of these, 195 responded about earliest flares and 69% (135/195) of severe flare patients experienced flares pre-diagnosis. Patients who self-reported severe flares had worse function, disease activity, work impairment and symptoms of anxiety and depression, were less likely to be employed and had more GP encounters per year compared with those who never reported severe flares. Participants who reported constant unremitting disease on the flare illustration tool had worse disease activity, impaired function and work impairment and were more likely to smoke compared with those with intermittent disease. Analysis showed a relationship between self-report of severe flare and subsequent depression, impaired function, increased disease activity and work limitations. CONCLUSION Severe flare is associated with poor outcomes such as work impairment and impaired function. The onset of severe flare early in the disease course may be a risk factor for later poor outcome and this group could benefit from targeted early aggressive treatment to improve prognosis.

Cardiovascular risk factors predicting cardiac events are different in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, and psoriasis

OBJECTIVES Increased cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is well established. Examining traditional cardiovascular risk factors alone underestimates cardiovascular risk in RA. Systematic inflammation, measured by erythrocyte sedimentation rate or C-reactive protein is also a major risk factor. However, the contribution of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (such as obesity and hyperlipidaemia) compared to inflammation is uncertain in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and RA. We examine the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) among patients with RA, PsA psoriasis, and controls adjusting for risk factors, inflammation and disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment, to better define cardiovascular risk. METHODS Using the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank, comprising routinely collected Welsh health data from 1999 to 2013, the incidence and first occurrence of a MACE in individuals with RA (n = 8650), PsA (n = 2128) and psoriasis (n = 24,630) compared to controls (n = 11,87,706) was investigated. RESULTS Traditional cardiovascular risk factors are higher in RA, PsA and psoriasis than controls. After adjusting for these factors, additional cardiovascular risk was only significantly increased in female RA patients (HR = 1.3; 95% CI: 1.0-1.7; p = 0.05) and psoriasis (HR = 1.2; 95% CI: 1.0-1.4; p = 0.02) but not statistically significant for PsA (HR = 1.5; 95% CI: 0.9-2.5; p = 0.13). ESR and CRP were increased in patients with RA but not in patients with psoriasis. CONCLUSION Additional increased cardiovascular risk was observed in female RA and psoriasis but not PsA. Systematic inflammation is higher in RA but not psoriasis, indicating that there are varying mediators of cardiovascular risk across these conditions.