Rubao Ji

Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: current research and future directions

Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.

A model study of the coupled biological and physical dynamics in Lake Michigan

A coupled physical and biological model was developed for Lake Michigan. The physical model was the Princeton ocean model (POM) driven directly by observed winds and net surface heat flux. The biological model was an eight-component, phosphorus-limited, lower trophic level food web model, which included phosphate and silicate for nutrients, diatoms and non-diatoms for dominant phytoplankton species, copepods and protozoa for dominant zooplankton species, bacteria and detritus. Driven by observed meteorological forcings, a 1-D modeling experiment showed a controlling of physical processes on the seasonal variation of biological variables in Lake Michigan: diatoms grew significantly in the subsurface region in early summer as stratification developed and then decayed rapidly in the surface mixed layer when silicate supplied from the deep stratified region was reduced as a result of the formation of the thermocline. The non-diatoms subsequently grew in mid and late summer under a limited-phosphate environment and then declined in the fall and winter as a result of the nutrient consumption in the upper eutrophic layer, limitation of nutrients supplied from the deep region and meteorological cooling and wind mixing. The flux estimates suggested that the microbial loop had a significant contribution in the growth of microzooplankton and hence, to the lower-trophic level food web system. The model results agreed with observations, suggesting that the

Influence of ocean freshening on shelf phytoplankton dynamics

[1] Climate change-induced freshening of the ocean can enhance vertical stratification and alter circulation patterns in ways that influence phytoplankton dynamics. We examined the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms and the magnitude of net primary productivity in the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS) - Gulf of Maine (GoM) region with respect to seasonal and interannual changes in surface water freshening from 1998 to 2006. The general pattern of temporal westward progression of the phytoplankton bloom corresponds with the gradient of increasing sea surface salinity from the NSS in the east to the western GoM. Increased freshening enhances the spatial gradients in bloom timing by stimulating earlier blooms upstream (NSS), but it has less impact downstream (the western GoM). Strong spatial gradients (increasing westward) of mean chlorophyll concentration and net primary productivity during post-bloom months (May-June) indicate that lower sea surface salinity upstream can likely impede nutrient fluxes from deep water and therefore affect overall productivity.

Influences of suspended sediments on the ecosystem in Lake Michigan: a 3-D coupled bio-physical modeling experiment

The influence of suspended sediments on the Lake Michigan ecosystem was examined using a 3-dimensional (3-D) coupled biological and physical model developed by Chen et al. (part I). The model was driven by the realistic meteorological forces observed in March 1998, with daily inputs of suspended sediment concentration that were derived from temporally and spatially interpolated satellite imagery. The model results show the significant impact of a seasonally recurring coastal resuspension plume on the spatial and temporal variation of the nutrients and plankton in southern Lake Michigan. The plume-released nutrients played an essential role in maintaining the nutrient level in the lake. Although the growth of phytoplankton in the plume depended on the availability of nutrients and light, the offshore decrease in phytoplankton biomass still satisfied the Sverdrup’s relationship. Cross-shore fluxes of nutrients and phytoplankton were controlled by episodic wind events with a period of 5–7 days: offshore during southward winds and onshore during northward winds. The flux estimates for biological variables suggest that the microbial food web is a key contributor to secondary production in southern Lake Michigan and the lower trophic level food web system could be dynamically divided into two decoupled loops: (1) detritus–bacteria–microzooplankton–large zooplankton; and (2) nutrient–phytoplankton–detritus. The model-predicted spatial distributions of nutrients and phytoplankton were in reasonable agreement with observations taken during the 1998 EEGLE interdisciplinary cruises, suggesting that the model was sufficiently robust to capture the basic characteristics of the Lake Michigan ecosystem during the plume event.

Influences of physical processes on the ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay: A coupled physical and biological model experiment

In this paper we have used a three-dimensional coupled physical and biological model to examine the marine ecosystem of Jiaozhou Bay. Physical processes included (1) the M2 tide, (2) river discharges, and (3) winds. The biological model described a simple, phosphorous-based, lower trophic food web system. The model results showed that tidal mixing had a direct impact on temporal and spatial distributions of nutrients and phytoplankton as well as on shellfish aquaculture. Nutrients and phytoplankton were well mixed vertically by tidal motion. Their concentrations were highest around northwestern and northern regions of the bay near river sources and decreased with water depth from the inner bay to the outer bay. A phytoplankton bloom can occur around the northwestern coast due to the “accumulation” of nutrients under southeasterly wind conditions. The flux analysis suggests that in summer the nutrients in Jiaozhou Bay was directly supplied and maintained by physical processes, but the temporal variation of phytoplankton was controlled dominantly by biological processes associated with nutrient uptake, grazing by zooplankton, and consumption by shellfish. Shellfish aquaculture can modify the bay-scale balance of the ecosystem in Jiaozhou Bay. The loss of phytoplankton in shellfish aquaculture sites tended to be compensated by advection and diffusion from the surrounding waters. A large consumption of phytoplankton by shellfish can cause a net flux of phytoplankton from the Yellow Sea to Jiaozhou Bay, although there was a net nutrient flux flowing out of the bay. The physical mechanism for the water exchange between Jiaozhou Bay and the Yellow Sea was controlled mainly by a chaotic process associated with nonlinear interactions between oscillating tidal currents and double residual eddies.

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean

Previous observational studies have found increasing primary production (PP) in response to declining sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, under-ice PP was assessed based on three coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem models participating in the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. All models showed good agreement with under-ice measurements of surface chlorophyll-a concentration and vertically integrated PP rates during the main under-ice production period, from mid-May to September. Further, modeled 30-year (1980–2009) mean values and spatial patterns of sea ice concentration compared well with remote sensing data. Under-ice PP was higher in the Arctic shelf seas than in the Arctic Basin, but ratios of under-ice PP over total PP were spatially correlated with annual mean sea ice concentration, with higher ratios in higher ice concentration regions. Decreases in sea ice from 1980 to 2009 were correlated significantly with increases in total PP and decreases in the under-ice PP/total PP ratio for most of the Arctic, but nonsignificantly related to under-ice PP, especially in marginal ice zones. Total PP within the Arctic Circle increased at an annual rate of between 3.2 and 8.0 Tg C/yr from 1980 to 2009. This increase in total PP was due mainly to a PP increase in open water, including increases in both open water area and PP rate per unit area, and therefore much stronger than the changes in under-ice PP. All models suggested that, on a pan-Arctic scale, the fraction of under-ice PP declined with declining sea ice cover over the last three decades.

Understanding the interaction of extractive and fed aquaculture using ecosystem modelling.

One of the most difficult tasks resource managers face is understanding the carrying capacity of coastal waters for aquaculture. Aquaculture, like many other human activities, can threaten coastal waters. Understanding eutrophication and the interaction of two different types of aquaculture is very important to the safe and effective management of coastal aquaculture. The first type of aquaculture, producing shrimp CAB International 2002. Responsible Marine Aquaculture (eds R.R. Stickney and J.P. McVey) 263 and finfish, depends on supplemental feeding and can contribute to eutrophication. The second type, involving bivalve molluscs and macroalgae, extracts plankton and nutrients from surrounding waters and can have a significant positive impact on moderately eutrophic waters. These species depend on the water’s basic productivity and will not grow effectively in water with low nutrient levels. Balancing extractive and fed aquaculture is of obvious importance to maximizing the safety and optimizing the carrying capacity of an embayment. Ecosystem modelling offers a three-dimensional physical, chemical and biological simulation that can help scientists and managers understand and predict the eutrophic impact of aquaculture for a specific embayment. Such a model is being explored in China in research sponsored by the Sino-US Living Marine Resources Panel. In this study, two projects are using the model to simulate the impact of aquaculture on Jiaozhou Bay, Shangdong Province, and on Xincun Lagoon, Hainan Province. Jiaozhou Bay is in the temperate zone adjacent to the Yellow Sea. There, a major port and industrial city, Qingdao, and scallop and shrimp aquaculture interact with the physical and biological components of the bay. The other modelled environment is very different. Xincun Lagoon is a small embayment (~22 km2) in southeastern Hainan Island adjacent to the South China Sea. Aquaculture in Xincun Bay includes 6500 fish pens (3 m × 3 m), 100 ha of shrimp ponds, pearl culture rafts and a new macroalgae culture operation that produced 3500 tonnes of Eucheuma in 1998–1999. The surrounding area has ~15,000 people and Xincun City is a major offshore fishing port (~500 vessels, > 10 m length) and Monkey Island Wildlife area with > 400,000 visitors annually. Extractive and fed aquaculture, along with the external activities, all have an impact on the carrying capacity of the bay for aquaculture. These two models show much promise for simulating local eutrophic conditions and for increasing the general understanding of the complex interactions of aquaculture and other human activities. Models that simulate the impact of aquaculture and other human activities and eventually predict carrying capacity should become useful tools for resource managers.

Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products

Recent years have seen a rapid expansion in the ability of earth system models to describe and predict the physical state of the ocean. Skilful forecasts ranging from seasonal (3 months) to decadal (5-10 years) time scales are now a reality. With the advance of these forecasts of ocean physics, the first generation of marine ecological forecasts has started to emerge. Such forecasts are potentially of great value in the management of living marine resources and for all of those who are dependent on the ocean for both nutrition and their livelihood; however, this is still a field in its infancy. We review the state of the art in this emerging field and identify the lessons that can be learnt and carried forward from these pioneering efforts. The majority of this first wave of products are forecasts of spatial distributions, possibly reflecting the inherent suitability of this response variable to the task of forecasting. Promising developments are also seen in forecasting fish-stock recruitment where, despite well-recognised challenges in understanding and predicting this response, new process knowledge and model approaches that could form a basis for forecasting are becoming available. Forecasts of phenology and coral-bleaching events are also being applied to monitoring and industry decisions. Moving marine ecological forecasting forward will require striking a balance between what is feasible and what is useful. We propose here a set of criteria to quickly identify “low-hanging fruit” that can potentially be predicted; however, ensuring the usefulness of forecast products also requires close collaboration with actively engaged end-users. Realising the full potential of marine ecological forecasting will require bridging the gaps between marine ecology and climatology on the one-hand, and between science and end-users on the other. Nevertheless, the successes seen thus far and the potential to develop further products suggest that the field of marine ecological forecasting can be expected to flourish in the coming years.

Decadal Changes in Zooplankton of the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

The abundance of the subarctic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, and temperate, shelf copepod, Centropages typicus, was estimated from samples collected bi-monthly over the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NEUS) from 1977–2010. Latitudinal variation in long term trends and seasonal patterns for the two copepod species were examined for four sub-regions: the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Georges Bank (GB), Southern New England (SNE), and Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). Results suggested that there was significant difference in long term variation between northern region (GOM and GB), and the MAB for both species. C. finmarchicus generally peaked in May – June throughout the entire study region and Cen. typicus had a more complex seasonal pattern. Time series analysis revealed that the peak time for Cen. typicus switched from November – December to January - March after 1985 in the MAB. The long term abundance of C. finmarchicus showed more fluctuation in the MAB than the GOM and GB, whereas the long term abundance of Cen. typicus was more variable in the GB than other sub-regions. Alongshore transport was significantly correlated with the abundance of C. finmarchicus, i.e., more water from north, higher abundance for C. finmarchicus. The abundance of Cen. typicus showed positive relationship with the Gulf Stream north wall index (GSNWI) in the GOM and GB, but the GSNWI only explained 12–15% of variation in Cen. typicus abundance. In general, the alongshore current was negatively correlated with the GSNWI, suggesting that Cen. typicus is more abundant when advection from the north is less. However, the relationship between Cen. typicus and alongshore transport was not significant. The present study highlights the importance of spatial scales in the study of marine populations: observed long term changes in the northern region were different from the south for both species.