Rui Fragoso

A competitividade do regadio em Portugal no contexto da Nova Política Agrícola Comum: o caso de uma exploração agrícola no Alentejo

The 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform consti-tutes a reinforcement of the main objectives of the previous reforms of 1992 and of 2000, namely the promotion of the agricultural competitive-ness, the multiple functions of the rural and agricultural areas and the sustainable resource exploitation. The direct production aids in the most Common Market Organizations are replaced by an only payment for each farm, subject to echo-conditionality and limits on the agricultural systems changes. This article evaluates the impacts of 2003 CAP reform on the Portugal irrigation competitiveness in the Alentejo region farms. The effects of the only payment in the agricultural returns, the main changes in the crop patterns and in the agricultural incomes were studied. They are also appraised direct social economic and environmental impacts of the adjustments produced with the 2003 CAP reform. The followed methodology is a discreet stochastic programming model. This model maximizes the expected income and minimizes the risk at the farm level. It was used to assess the crop patterns and the farm inco-me in the short and in the long term, in the scenarios of the 2000 CAP and the of the 2003 CAP.

Avaliação económica de tarifas de água no uso agrícola: um estudo de caso no Sul de Portugal

This paper evaluates the effects of water tariffs in irrigation, in terms of water consumption, land irrigated, farm income, water cost recovery and agricultural investment. The methodology is based on a multiperiod mathematical programming model, which was applied to the specific characteristics of a representative farm in southern Portugal. The main aspects analyzed were: the fix tariff per area benefited, the volumetric tariff per cubic meter of water consumed, the mix tariff and the increasing block tariff. For the simulations, it was considered a traditional productive scenario and an alternative scenario, which include value added crops.

Redistributing Agricultural Data by a Dasymetric Mapping Methodology

This paper examines the adaptation of dasymetric mapping methodologies to agricultural data, including their testing and transposition, in order to recover the underlying statistical surface (i.e., an approximation of the real distribution of data). A methodology based on the ideas of Gallego and Peedell (2001) and on the binary method is proposed. It has several steps: (i) the exclusion of target zones for which no observations exist (binary method), (ii) the application of an iterative process to define the most precise densities for data distribution, and (iii) the stratification/definition of sub-units with homogenous characteristics if the results of the previous step are not satisfactory, and the subsequent application of step two. // The methodology was applied in the Alentejo region of Portugal, using data from the 1999 Agricultural Census. Several counties are used as source zones. The aim was to generate a distribution of agro-forestry occupations as close as possible to reality. Two lines of analysis were followed: (i) application of the methodology simultaneously to all counties (definition of regional densities), and (ii) application of the methodology separately to the different sub-areas with similar characteristics (definition of sub-regional densities). For an easy application of the methodology, a computer tool was created, which allowed the easy optimization, validation, and exportation of the data into a Geographic Information System (GIS). // The results were validated using several error indicators at the county level, as well as in a sample of parishes. We show that the second variant of the methodology yielded more precise results, and is superior for the types of data available. This method yielded maps in which the distribution of the most relevant agro-forestry occupations is closest to reality.This paper examines the adaptation of dasymetric mapping methodologies to agricultural data, including their testing and transposition, in order to recover the underlying statistical surface (i.e., an approximation of the real distribution of data). A methodology based on the ideas of Gallego and Peedell (2001) and on the binary method is proposed. It has several steps: (i) the exclusion of target zones for which no observations exist (binary method), (ii) the application of an iterative process to define the most precise densities for data distribution, and (iii) the stratification/definition of sub-units with homogenous characteristics if the results of the previous step are not satisfactory, and the subsequent application of step two. The methodology was applied in the Alentejo region of Portugal, using data from the 1999 Agricultural Census. Several counties are used as source zones. The aim was to generate a distribution of agro-forestry occupations as close as possible to reality. Two lines of analysis were followed: (i) application of the methodology simultaneously to all counties (definition of regional densities), and (ii) application of the methodology separately to the different subareas with similar characteristics (definition of sub-regional densities). For an easy application of the methodology, a computer tool was created, which allowed the easy optimization, validation, and exportation of the data into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results were validated using several error indicators at the county level, as well as in a sample of parishes. We show that the second variant of the methodology yielded more precise results, and is superior for the types of data available. This method yielded maps in which the distribution of the most relevant agro-forestry occupations is closest to reality.

Estimation of cost allocation coefficients at the farm level using an entropy approach

This paper aims to estimate the farm cost allocation coefficients from whole-farm input costs. An entropy approach was developed under a Tobit formulation and was applied to a sample of farms from the 2004 Farm Accountancy Data Network data base for Alentejo region, Southern Portugal. A Generalized Maximum Entropy model and Cross Generalized Entropy model were developed to the sample conditions and were tested. Model results were assessed in terms of their precision and estimation power and were compared with the observed data. The entropy approach showed to be a flexible and valid tool to estimate incomplete information, namely regarding farm costs.

As Atitudes dos Agricultores Face à Política Agrícola Comum e ao Projecto de Regadio de Alqueva

The main purpose of this paper is to know farmer’s attitudes face to the agricultural production, the political support and the irrigation project of Alqueva in the context of the 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and the Health-Check, in a micro-region located near the Mediterranean Sea, in the Southern region of Portugal. At the same time, this paper also aims to understand the behavioural intentions of farmers face to the technological innovation and the future of the irrigation project in this political context. Results show that the majority of farmers are a relatively homogeneous cluster about their attitudes and behavioural intentions. These farmers still maintain a productivist mindset, a strong wish to maintain an agricultural focus and they strongly reject the notions of policy liberalisation. Although they have a great potential of innovation and being aware of the importance of their contribution in the protection of the rural environment, they recognize that the future CAP, the water supply irrigation price and the conditions of access to agricultural credit, could compromise their innovation capacity in the future. The conclusions suggest that it is necessary to understand the particularities of a regional agriculture in different countries in the European Union so the policies can take place successfully. In the Portuguese case, more comprehensive studies are necessary in order to find more consistent results.

Avaliação da competitividade da agricultura do Alentejo no âmbito do ecossistema montado

This paper makes a socio-economic evaluation of the “Montado†ecosystem in Alentejo. It is study the viability of the agricultural systems and the effects of agricultural policy in their competitiveness and sustainability. It is used a Policy Analysis Matrix to evaluate the agricultural systems competitiveness and their economic efficiency. The agricultural systems are classified concerning their contribution for the economic growth, in function of income levels and policy effects.

Disaggregation of Statistical Livestock Data Using the Entropy Approach

A process of agricultural data disaggregation is developed to address the lack of updated disaggregated data concerning main livestock categories at subregional and county level in the Alentejo Region, southern Portugal. The model developed considers that the number of livestock units is a function of the agricultural and forest occupation, and data concerning the existing agricultural and forest occupation, as well as the conversion of livestock numbers into normal heads, are needed in order to find this relation. The weight of each livestock class is estimated using a dynamic process based on a generalized maximum entropy model and on a crossentropy minimization model, which comprises two stages. The model was applied to the county of Castelo de Vide and their results were validated in cross reference to real data from different sources.

Planning Marketing Channels: Case of the Olive Oil Agribusiness in Portugal

Marketing channels play an important role in the competitiveness of agribusiness value chains. Thus, this paper proposes a model for planning marketing channels in agribusiness that also considers transaction costs. This model is developed in two steps, diagnostic and decision, and is applied to the olive oil agribusiness in Portugal. The diagnostic step includes analysis of the agribusiness chain value, marketing channels, transaction characteristics, and institutional environment. The decision step fits the information from the diagnostic into a qualitative cost–benefit analysis, based on a multi-criteria problem of ordering preferences.

Economic effects of climate change on the Mediterranean’s irrigated agriculture

This paper aims to assess the economic effects of climate change on the Mediterranean’s irrigated agriculture and how the adoption of alternative crop varieties adapted to the expected length of the growing season can be an effective adaptation measure.,A case study of two irrigation areas in Southern Portugal is used to assess the response to climate change impacts on crop yields and irrigation requirements, and an agricultural supply model is calibrated using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach was developed.,Climate change reduces crop yields and causes a slight decrease in irrigation requirements, which could allow an increase in the irrigated area. However, positive impacts on rural areas regarding employment and investment are not expected. The adoption of adaptation measures based on alternative crop varieties, which could maintain crop yields at current levels, increases dramatically the economic value of water and mitigates losses in farm income.,The impacts on output and input market prices, as well as other biophysical impacts (for instance, CO2 and water availability), are important in understanding the effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture, but they were not considered in this study. While this may be a limitation, it can also be a stimulus for further research.,This is an empirical paper, whose results contribute to improving knowledge about the effects of climate change on irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas, namely, its economic impacts on returns and the use of agricultural resources (land, water, labour and capital). Other practical implications of the paper are associated with the methodological approach, which provides a framework able to deal with the complexity and multidimensional effects of climate change.,The results of the paper provide important information for scientists, politicians and other stakeholders about the design of more effective adaptation measures able to mitigate the effects of climate change.,Crop yields and irrigation requirements were previously calculated based on data generated by the regional climate models. This is the first time that an application is developed for Portugal. Two distinct profiles of irrigation areas were studied and a large set of crops was considered, which is not common in the existing studies. To specify the PMP approach used to calibrate the agricultural supply model, exogenous crop-specific supply elasticities were estimated through a least square model, which is not common in previous studies.

A Multi-objective Approach for Supply Chain Network Design: Tilapia Pisciculture in Paraná State - Brazil

Nowadays, efficient supply chain network design is a major issue, which becomes a greater challenge with the need to consider environmental and social concerns in decisions, besides economic issues. This paper develops a supply chain planning model based on a multi-objective framework that considers economic, social and environmental issues. The model is applied to the tilapia pisciculture supply chain in Brazil. A pay-off matrix is derived and an approximation of the Pareto frontier is built using the augmented ε-constraint method. Several non-dominated solutions are generated and analyzed in order to propose the preferable scenarios of supply chain network design.