Rumi Ohgaito

Mid-Holocene NAO: A PMIP2 model intercomparison

[1] The mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from nine models in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 is studied, primarily through principal component analysis of winter time North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP). Modeled mid-Holocene NAO and mean SLP show small changes compared to pre-industrial control runs, with a shift in mean state towards a more positive NAO regime for three of the models. Modeled NAO variability shows little change, with a small increase for some models in the fraction of time spent in the NAO-negative phase during the mid-Holocene. Proxy based reconstructions of the NAO indicate a more positive NAO regime compared to present day during the mid- Holocene. We hypothesise that there was a small NAO+ like shift in mean state during the mid-Holocene.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

Global cooling in intermediate glacial climate with northern ice sheets preconditions climatic instability with bipolar seesaw. Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Global-Scale Energy and Freshwater Balance in Glacial Climate: A Comparison of Three PMIP2 LGM Simulations

Three coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (I-GM: about 21000 yr before present), conducted under the protocol of the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2), have been analyzed from a viewpoint of large-scale energy and freshwater balance. Atmospheric latent heat (LH) transport decreases at most latitudes due to reduced water vapour content in the lower troposphere. and dry static energy (DSE) transport in northern midlatitudes increases and changes the intensity contrast between the Pacific and Atlantic regions due to enhanced stationary waves over the North American ice Sheets. In low latitudes. even with an intensified Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), reduced DSE transport by the mean zonal circulation as well as a reduced equatorward LH transport is observed. The oceanic heat transport at NH midlatitudes increases owing to intensified subpolar gyres, and the Atlantic heat transport at low latitudes increases in all models whether or not meridional overturning circulation (MOC) intensifies. As a result, total poleward energy transport at the LGM increases in NH mid- and low latitudes in all models. Oceanic freshwater transport decreases. compensating for the response of the atmospheric water vapor transport. These responses in the atmosphere and ocean make the northern North Atlantic Ocean cold and relatively fresh. and the Southern Ocean relatively warm and saline. This is a common and robust feature in all odels. The resultant ocean densities and ocean MOC response. however. show model dependency.

Global deep ocean oxygenation by enhanced ventilation in the Southern Ocean under long‐term global warming

Global warming is expected to decrease ocean oxygen concentrations by less solubility of surface ocean and change in ocean circulation. The associated expansion of the oxygen minimum zone would have adverse impacts on marine organisms and ocean biogeochemical cycles. Oxygen reduction is expected to persist for a thousand years or more, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. However, long-term changes in ocean oxygen and circulation are still unclear. Here we simulate multimillennium changes in ocean circulation and oxygen under doubling and quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and an offline biogeochemical model. In the first 500 years, global oxygen concentration decreases, consistent with previous studies. Thereafter, however, the oxygen concentration in the deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots at the end of the simulations, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This is because, after the initial cessation, the recovery and overshooting of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea enhance ventilation and supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean. Another contributor to deep ocean oxygenation is seawater warming, which reduces the export production and shifts the organic matter remineralization to the upper water column. Our results indicate that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in deep ocean, which is opposite to the centennial-scale global oxygen reduction and general expectation.

A review of progress towards understanding the transient global mean surface temperature response to radiative perturbation

The correct understanding of the transient response to external radiative perturbation is important for the interpretation of observed climate change, the prediction of near-future climate change, and committed warming under climate stabilization scenarios, as well as the estimation of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on observation data. It has been known for some time that the radiative damping rate per unit of global mean surface temperature increase varies with time, and this inconstancy affects the transient response. Knowledge of the equilibrium response alone is insufficient, but understanding the transient response of the global mean surface temperature has made rapid progress. The recent progress accompanies the relatively new concept of the efficacies of ocean heat uptake and forcing. The ocean heat uptake efficacy associates the temperature response induced by ocean heat uptake with equilibrium temperature response, and the efficacy of forcing compares the temperature response caused by non-CO2 forcing with that by CO2 forcing.In this review article, recent studies on these efficacies are discussed, starting from the classical global feedback framework and basis of the transient response. An attempt is made to structure different studies that emphasize different aspects of the transient response and to stress the relevance of those individual studies. The implications on the definition and computation of forcing and on the estimation of the equilibrium response in climate models are also discussed. Along with these discussions, examples are provided with MIROC climate model multi-millennial simulations.

Arctic Oscillation during the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum from PMIP2 Coupled Model Simulations

Abstract Changes in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum were compared to preindustrial (PI) simulations using four coupled ocean–atmosphere models [i.e., Community Climate System Model (CCSM), third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3) Met Office Surface Exchanges Scheme, version 2 (MOSES2), L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC3.2)] from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. Results show that the amplitude of the simulated AO during the mid-Holocene is a little smaller than that of the preindustrial simulation. Although the AO pattern and vertical structures are similar to those in the preindustrial simulation, the polar westerlies are slightly weakened and displaced downward to the lower stratosphere, accompanied by weakening of the polar vortex and warming of the cold polar cap region. During the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Northern ...

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

AbstractBasal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions (i.e., to a doubling of CO2 and to the Last Glacial Maximum conditions). Sensitivity experiments were also conducted to investigate the roles of both surface atmospheric change and changes of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. It was found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than that due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat ...

Atmospheric Local Energetics and Energy Interactions between Mean and Eddy Fields. Part II: An Example for the Last Glacial Maximum Climate

Abstract The atmospheric local energy cycle in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate simulated by an atmosphere–ocean GCM (AOGCM) is investigated using a new diagnostic scheme. In contrast to existing ones, this scheme can represent the local features of the Lorenz energy cycle correctly, and it provides the complete information about the three-dimensional structure of the energy interactions between mean and eddy fields. The diagnosis reveals a significant enhancement of the energy interactions through the barotropic processes in the Atlantic sector at the LGM. Energy interactions through the baroclinic processes are also enhanced in the Atlantic sector, although those in the Pacific sector are rather weakened. These LGM responses, however, are not evident in the global energy cycle except for an enhancement of the energy flow through the stationary eddies.