Russell Lee

U.S. airport entry screening in response to pandemic influenza: modeling and analysis.

Summary Background A stochastic discrete event simulation model was developed to assess the effectiveness of passenger screening for Pandemic Influenza (PI) at U.S. airport foreign entry. Methods International passengers arriving at 18 U.S. airports from Asia, Europe, South America, and Canada were assigned to one of three states: not infected, infected with PI, infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers passed through layered screening then exited the model. 80% screening effectiveness was assumed for symptomatic passengers; 6% asymptomatic passengers. Results In the first 100 days of a global pandemic, U.S. airport screening would evaluate over 17M passengers with 800K secondary screenings. 11,570 PI infected passengers (majority asymptomatic) would enter the U.S. undetected from all 18 airports. Foreign airport departure screening significantly decreased the false negative (infected/undetected) passengers. U.S. attack rates: no screening (26.9%–30.9%); screening (26.4%–30.6%); however airport screening results in 800K–1.8M less U.S. PI cases; 16K–35K less deaths (2% fatality rate). Antiviral medications for travel contact prophylaxis (10 contacts/PI passenger) were high – 8.8M. False positives from all 18 airports: 100–200/day. Conclusions Foreign shore exit screening greatly reduces numbers of PI infected passengers. U.S. airport screening identifies 50% infected individuals; efficacy is limited by the asymptomatic PI infected. Screening will not significantly delay arrival of PI via international air transport, but will reduce the rate of new US cases and subsequent deaths.

Externalities Studies: Why are the Numbers Different?

This paper summarizes important differences among a number of studies that estimate the externalities of fuel cycles1. All of these studies essentially define externalities to be health, environmental, or other damages (or benefits) that affect the well being of third parties. Table 1 lists the studies that this paper reviews. The paper focuses on the first seven; and alludes briefly to the last two of these studies (California Energy Commission and Northern States Power).

Estimating the benefits of government-sponsored energy R&D

A National Research Council (NRC) committee recently conducted a retrospective study of the benefits of some of the energy efficiency and fossil energy programs in the US Department of Energy (US DOE). A subsequent conference discussed ways of adapting and refining the NRC framework for possible use by US DOE offices to help plan and manage their R&D. A framework that emerged from the conference is depicted by a matrix that categorizes different types of benefits. The rows of the matrix reflect the goals of the department, and the columns reflect the time-frame and level of certainty. The conference suggested many approaches for estimating the benefits within each category and also noted many challenges in making these estimates. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.

Estimating the Impacts, Damages and Benefits of Fuel Cycles: Insights from an Ongoing Study

The purpose of this paper is to share some insights from an ongoing study of fuel cycle externalities. The fuel cycles being studied involve the use of coal, biomass, oil, hydro, natural gas, uranium, wind, and photovoltaic sources to generate electric power. Conservation options are also to be addressed.

Oil markets under political and military stress

Abstract Econometric and linear programming models were used to evaluate petroleum markets during a politically based disruption and, alternatively, during a military confrontation in 1995. The market scenarios were characterized by a substantial loss of exports from the Persian Gulf region. The hypothetical disruptions resulted in substantially higher prices and reduced supply and demand of refined products, especially fuels for transportation. Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve mitigated the impacts, though the International Energy Agencys oil sharing agreement was not a factor.

Changes in business-as-usual forecasts in a petroleum trade model

Abstract This paper studies the changes in petroleum trade forecasts that were made in 1986 and in 1987 for 1990 business-as-usual conditions. The forecasts were from a large econometric-linear programming formulation that models crude oil trade between producing and refining regions in the world. The results confirm that not only do oil price forecasts change dramatically from year to year, but that sizeable changes in the forecasted geographical distributions of supply, demand, and trade should also be expected. For planning and policy analysis, it is important to consider this uncertainty in anticipated business-as-usual conditions.

Navy jet fuel production Strategies for a Persian Gulf crisis

Abstract Regional refinery linear programming models have been used to estimate the availability of US Navy jet fuel during petroleum disruption scenarios characterized by the loss of 11 million bbl/ day of Persian Gulf crude oil production for 90 days. In one scenario, the disruption impacts were mitigated by use of two million bbl/day of Strategic Petroleum Reserves and by invoking the sharing agreements of the international Energy Agency. The analysis suggested that use of the reserves and international sharing increases Navy jet fuel availability by 25%. The analysis also indicated that Navy jet fuel availability could be further enhanced by increasing the price offered to refiners or by accepting a poorer quality fuel. Estimates of the Navy jet fuel production response to price change and specification relaxation are presented.

A computerized system to estimate potential uranium resources

Abstract The URAD system is the only comprehensive computerized database for information and estimates of the quantity of undiscovered uranium resources in the United States. The database includes subjective estimates of uranium endowment and geographic and geologic descriptions for approximately 700 area-specific assessments. The estimated quantity of undiscovered resources are represented in the form of probability distributions. This probabilistic approach makes the uncertainty about these resources explicit.

Current Renewable Energy Technologies and Future Projections

The generally acknowledged sources of renewable energy are wind, geothermal, biomass, solar, hydropower, and hydrogen. Renewable energy technologies are crucial to the production and utilization of energy from these regenerative and virtually inexhaustible sources. Furthermore, renewable energy technologies provide benefits beyond the establishment of sustainable energy resources. For example, these technologies produce negligible amounts of greenhouse gases and other pollutants in providing energy, and they exploit domestically available energy sources, thereby reducing our dependence on both the importation of fossil fuels and the use of nuclear fuels. The market price of renewable energy technologies does not reflect the economic value of these added benefits.

Ultra low sulphur diesel fuel impacts on availability of other fuels

Abstract Legislation for ultra low sulphur (ULS) diesel fuel, with a greatly reduced allowable sulphur content and a new limit on aromatics content, is expected to be in place in the USA by 1995. The ULS diesel fuel has been specified to satisfy US standards for particulate emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines. The Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of ULS diesel fuel production on other refined petroleum products. The study predicts that to produce ULS diesel fuel, US Gulf and west coast refiners will have to invest about