Russell W. Rumberger

Dropping Out of Middle School: A Multilevel Analysis of Students and Schools

Prior research on dropouts has often focused on high schools and examined the issue from either the individual perspective or the institutional perspective. Using data from the National Educational Longitudinal Survey of 1988 and a new form of hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), this study focuses on dropouts from middle school and examines the issue from both individual and institutional perspectives. At the individual level, the results identified a number of family and school experience factors that influence the decision to leave school, with grade retention being the single most powerful predictor. But disaggregating the analysis also revealed that there are widespread differences in the effects of these factors on White, Black, and Hispanic students. At the institutional level, the results revealed that mean dropout rates vary widely between schools and that most of the variation can be explained by differences in the background characteristics of students. But restricting the analysis to lower SES schools shows widespread differences in both mean dropout rates and social class differentiation among such schools. Moreover, much of the variation among those schools can be explained by social composition of students and by several structural features of schools and school climate.

High School Dropouts: A Review of Issues and Evidence

The problem of high school dropouts has generated increased interest among researchers, policymakers, and educators in recent years. This paper examines the many issues involved in trying to understand and solve this complex social and educational problem. The issues are grouped into four areas covering the incidence, causes, consequences, and solutions to the problem. Within each area, the discussion identifies the important issues involved, the current state of research on the issues, and considerations for future research.

Student Mobility and the Increased Risk of High School Dropout

A variety of evidence suggests that students in the United States change schools frequently. But there has been relatively little research that examines the educational consequences of student mobility. This study examined the incidence of student mobility between the eighth and twelfth grades and its effect on high school completion using the National Educational Longitudinal Survey third follow-up data. Three models were tested on two groups of students. For eighth-grade students in 1988, we predicted (1) whether students changed schools or dropped out between the eighth and twelfth grades and (2) high school completion status two years after twelfth grade. For twelfth-grade students in 1992 we predicted high school completion status two years after twelfth grade. The models were developed from a conceptual framework based on theories of dropping out, postsecondary institutional departure, and student transfer adjustment that suggest school mobility may represent a less severe form of educational disengagement similar to dropping out. The results generally support this idea. That is, measures of social and academic engagement, such as low grades, misbehavior, and high absenteeism, predicted both whether students changed schools or dropped out. The results further indicate that, controlling for other predictors, students who made even one nonpromotional school change between the eighth and twelfth grades were twice as likely to not complete high school as students who did not change schools. Together, the findings suggest that student mobility is both a symptom of disengagement and an important risk factor for high school dropout.

Dropping Out of High School: The Influence of Race, Sex, and Family Background

This paper examines the extent of the high school dropout problem in 1979 and investigates both the stated reasons students leave school and some of the underlying factors influencing their decision. Particular attention is focused on differences by sex, race, and family background. Data for this research come from a new, national sample of youth who were 14 to 21 years of age in 1979. A multivariate model is developed to estimate the effects of family background and other factors on the decision to drop out of school. Several results emerge from the study: The reasons students cite for leaving school vary widely, with women more likely to leave because of pregnancy or marriage and men more likely to leave to go to work; family background strongly influences the propensity to drop out of school and accounts for virtually all the racial differences in dropout rates; various other factors, including ability and aspirations, also influence this decision.

The Distribution of Dropout and Turnover Rates among Urban and Suburban High Schools.

Although school dropout remains an important policy issue and has generated considerable research, little of this research has examined dropout as a measure of school performance. Even less attention has been paid to student turnover, another, related measure of how well schools are keeping students enrolled. This study examined the distributions of both dropout and turnover rates among a large sample of U.S. high schools and tested a series of models to explain these differences, using data from the NELS High School Effectiveness Study and non linear multilevel modeling. The results revealed substantial variability in school dropout and turnover rates among the high schools. Moreover, consistent with other work in this area, much of the variation in school dropout and turnover rates could be attributed to differences in the background characteristics of the students. Yet student composition, school resources, and school processes-factors that policy makers and educators control-also influenced dropout and turnover rates

The economic returns to college major, quality and performance: A multilevel analysis of recent graduates

Abstract This paper estimates the impact of three types of qualitative differences in college experiences on the earnings of recent college graduates — college major, school quality and educational performance. The analysis is based on a new statistical technique, known as hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), which distinguishes more precisely between the effects of individual factors and institutional factors on earnings. The results show that all three types of qualitative factors influence initial earnings, but the effects of institutional quality and educational performance are not uniform for graduates with different college majors.

Test Scores, Dropout Rates, and Transfer Rates as Alternative Indicators of High School Performance

This study investigated the relationships among several different indicators of high school performance: test scores, dropout rates, transfer rates, and attrition rates. Hierarchical linear models were used to analyze panel data from a sample of 14,199 students who took part in the National Education Longitudinal Survey of 1988. The results generally support the notion of an alternative as opposed to a common view of school effectiveness: Schools that are effective in promoting student learning (growth in achievement) are not necessarily effective in reducing dropout or transfer rates. In fact, after control for student inputs, high schools exhibit relatively little variability in dropout rates but considerable variation in transfer rates. In addition, characteristics of schools that contributed to performance in one area often did not contribute to performance in another. Given these findings, the authors suggest that, along with test scores, dropout and transfer rates should be used to judge school performance.

Toward Explaining Differences in Educational Achievement among Mexican American Language-Minority Students.

One major question confronting educational researchers and practitioners is why some minority students are successful in school and others are not. This study documented the extent of differences in educational achievement among a cohort of Mexican American language-minority students in a large, urban middle school and assessed them using two theoretical perspectives - socioeconomic and sociocultural - and a conceptual framework of the roles of social and academic behavior on educational achievement. Bilingual students who were fluent English proficient (FEP) had better grades and a higher rate of educational stability and were more likely to complete a quarter of their high school credits by the end of ninth grade than were students who were limited English proficient or from English-only backgrounds. These differences appear to be attributable to the social behavior of FEP students and other, unmeasured characteristics, which supports a sociocultural perspective of educational achievement

Student Engagement, Peer Social Capital, and School Dropout Among Mexican American and Non-Latino White Students

Policy makers are especially concerned about persistently high dropout rates among U.S. Latinos, the largest minority population in the United States. This study used a national longitudinal database to show that the behavioral and social aspects of schooling are dynamically linked in the process of school completion and dropout among Mexican American and non-Latino white adolescents. In contrast to the tendency of academically disengaged students to develop street-oriented friendships, students who are involved in school tend to befriend others who also make schooling a priority. Thus, student engagement influences competing friendship networks in a manner that contributes to the completion of school. Furthermore, engagement behaviors and school-oriented friendship networks have the potential to reduce dropout rates. To their social and educational detriment, however, Mexican American students appear to be less engaged in unorganized academic endeavors and formally sponsored extracurricular activities than are white students. The results of this study support policies that combine targeted educational and social reforms to bolster school completion among Mexican origin youths.

Teacher Effectiveness in First Grade: The Importance of Background Qualifications, Attitudes, and Instructional Practices for Student Learning

This study uses Early Childhood Longitudinal Study data to investigate the importance of three general aspects of teacher effects—teacher background qualifications, attitudes, and instructional practices—to reading and math achievement gains in first grade. The results indicate that compared with instructional practices, background qualifications have less robust associations with achievement gains. These findings suggest that the No Child Left Behind Act’s “highly qualified teacher” provision, which screens teachers on the basis of their background qualifications, is insufficient for ensuring that classrooms are led by teachers who are effective in raising student achievement. To meet that objective, educational policy needs to be directed toward improving aspects of teaching, such as instructional practices and teacher attitudes.