Russell Walker

Partnerships in Training

Capital One Financial Corporation supplies credit products in the US. Since 1995, it has followed an information-based strategy, collecting and analyzing data to improve its business decisions. To continue this successful strategy, it must train its analysts in analytical techniques. In a partnership between Capital One and the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University, we developed three training courses in forecasting, optimization, and simulation. These courses have been well received by the analysts and have led to considerable early return on investment with one class project forecasted to reduce costs at the firms Richmond, Virginia mail center by more than

Conseco: Market Assumptions and Risk

2 million annually.

Arbor City Community Foundation (B): Managing Good Fortune

In March 2007 C. James Prieur, CEO of insurance provider Conseco, was faced with a crisis. The front page of the New York Times featured a story on the grieving family of an elderly woman who had faithfully paid for her Conseco long-term care (LTC) policy, only to find that it would not pay her claims. Her family had to pay for her care (until her recent death), which unfortunately resulted in the loss of the family business. The family was now very publicly pursuing litigation. For a company that depended on thousands of employees, investors, and independent agents who sold the insurance plans, this reputational risk was a serious threat. On top of this immediate crisis, all signs in the industry were pointing to the fact that the LTC business itself was not viable, yet over the years Conseco had acquired a number of LTC insurance providers. Students are asked to analyze not only what Prieur’s priorities should be in addressing the immediate crisis but also the risks inherent in the LTC industry and how this might affect Conseco’s success as a business moving forward After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to: Analyze the risks in the long-term care insurance industry Distinguish the various types of risk that caused a company’s crisis and recognize the potential for contagion Brainstorm how the risks faced by Conseco could have been avoided or better contained Recommend the first steps C. James Prieur and the Conseco leadership team should take to rectify the New York Times article crisis

Winning With Risk Management

The Arbor City Community Foundation (ACCF) was a medium-sized endowment established in Illinois in the late 1970s through the hard work of several local families. The vision of the ACCF was to be a comprehensive center for philanthropy in the greater Arbor City region. ACCF had a fund balance (known collectively as “the fund”) of just under

Long-term Variability in the Arrival Rate of Flood Events as Evidenced by Flood Clustering

240 million. The ACCF board of trustees had appointed a committee to oversee investment decisions relating to the foundation assets. The investment committee, under the guidance of the board, pursued an active risk-management policy for the fund. The committee members were primarily concerned with the volatility and distribution of portfolio returns. They relied on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology as a measurement of the risk of both short- and mid-term investment losses. The questions in Part (A) of the case direct the students to analyze the risk inherent in both one particular asset and the entire ACCF portfolio. For this analysis the students need to calculate daily VaR and monthly VaR values and interpret these figures in the context of ACCFs risk management. In Part (B) the foundation receives a major donation. As a result, the risk inherent in its portfolio changes considerably. The students are asked to evaluate the risk of the funds new portfolio and to perform a portfolio rebalancing analysis. Understanding the concept of value at risk (VaR); Calculating daily and monthly VaR by two different methods, the historical and the parametric approach; Interpreting the results of VaR calculations; Understanding the role of diversification for managing risk; Evaluating the impact of portfolio rebalancing on the overall risk of a portfolio.