Rut Sánchez de Dios

Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species

ABSTRACT Question: Will the predicted climate changes affect species distribution in the Iberian Peninsula? Location: Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal). Methods: We modelled current and future tree distributions as a function of climate, using a computational framework that made use of one machine learning technique, the random forest (RF) algorithm. This algorithm provided good predictions of the current distribution of each species, as shown by the area under the corresponding receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Species turnover, richness and the change in distributions over time to 2080 under four Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) scenarios were calculated using the species map outputs. Results and Conclusions: The results show a notable reduction in the potential distribution of the studied species under all the IPCC scenarios, particularly so for mountain conifer species such as Pinus sylvestris, P. uncinata and Abies alba. Temperate species, especially Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, were also predicted to suffer a reduction in their range; also submediterranean species, especially Q. pyrenaica, were predicted to undergo notable decline. In contrast, typically Mediterranean species appeared to be generally more capable of migration, and are therefore likely to be less affected. Nomenclature:Amaral Franco (1990), Govaerts & Avishai (2002) for Quercus pubescens.

Hybrid Zones Between Two European Oaks: a Plant Community Approach

Phenomena of hybridization can affect the ecology and evolution of the species involved in the process, as well as their communities. Although numerous papers focus upon the problem of taxonomy, few of these have attempted to study hybrid zones in relation to the analysis of their communities. On the Iberian Peninsula, hybridization phenomena among different oak species are frequent. It is, however, between Quercus faginea Lam. and Quercus pubescens Willd. where the most noteworthy hybridization phenomenon occurs. In this respect, we are familiar with the existence of different introgression levels but we are unaware of whether these hybrids are the transitory result of the interspecific genetic flow or whether these are maintained by means of extrinsic selection processes. Study of plant communities’ flora and environment might shed light upon this issue. Comparison between plant communities dominated by one of the parental species and those dominated by individuals of hybrid origin might enable us to establish the presence or absence of an environment that is potentially selective in favour of the hybrids. Thus the possible existence of extrinsic selection. Furthermore, this information will help us to understand plant community distribution in an area␣that is difficult to interpret. To this purpose, we used multivariate ordination techniques (DCA and CCA) based upon a total of 395 floristic releves covering the whole range of the parental species on the Iberian Peninsula and upon climatic and edaphic variables for each of these releves. We also compared the groups obtained in relation to floristic similarity (Jaccard index), richness and diversity (Shannon–Weaver index). Forests associated with Quercus pubescens are related to heavy summer precipitation, whereas Quercus faginea forests correspond to lower values of this variable and higher ones for continentality. Between both formations, there is a broad hybrid zone, with diffused borders that are related to an environmental gradient of Mediterranean influence. In this region, two types of forest communities were distinguished, which enabled us to divide the hybrid zones into two territories. Our results allowed us to locate the hybrid zone in an ecotone. The differentiation between habitats appears to indicate models of ecological selection. These models require, by definition, the presence of an environmental gradient between the parental zones. We are, however, aware of the need for future experiments in order to establish whether the hybrids are better adapted than the parental species. Only with availability of all this information can intrinsic selection be rejected.

Exploring range shifts of contrasting tree species across a bioclimatic transition zone

Bioclimatic transition zones are supposed to encompass sensitive areas to global change effects on forest ecosystems. In this study, we attempt to detect shifts in the ranges of contrasting Iberian tree species in the submediterranean transition zone in Navarra, northern Spain. These shifts are analysed in the context of a significant increase in temperature over recent decades along with moderate land use changes. Data from national forest inventories (1971 and 2010) are compared through universal kriging (UK) and block kriging models to assess the shifts in the ranges of Quercus subpyrenaica, Quercus ilex, Pinus sylvestris and Fagus sylvatica. UK results predicted an increase in the presence probability of the four target species for the whole Navarra region. However, in the submediterranean zone, the presence probability of Q. subpyrenaica, P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica shows a shrinking trend, whereas Q. ilex is expanding its range, supporting a previous hypothesis of a “mediterranization” of this bioclimatic transition region. These trends are concomitant with recent elevational shift patterns towards higher elevations in the case of Q. subpyrenaica, P. sylvestris and F. sylvatica in the transition zone. Moreover, the expected increase in species richness as a consequence of geographical shifts and vegetation recovery is identified. The moderate human influence detected in the study area confirms the major role of climate warming as driver of species range shifts over the period. The results of this study highlight the suitability of bioclimatic transition zones for monitoring the effects of global change on natural ecosystems, providing evidences of the complex mechanisms affecting the distribution of forests.