Ruth A. Harris

Introduction to Special Section: Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard

Many aspects of earthquake mechanics remain an enigma as we enter the closing years of the twentieth century. One potential bright spot is the realization that simple calculations of stress changes may explain some earthquake interactions, just as previous and on going studies of stress changes have begun to explain human-induced seismicity. This paper, which introduces the special section “Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard,” reviews many published works and presents a compilation of quantitative earthquake interaction studies from a stress change perspective. This synthesis supplies some clues about certain aspects of earthquake mechanics. It also demonstrates that much work remains before we can understand the complete story of how earthquakes work.

Dynamics of fault interaction: parallel strike‐slip faults

We use a two-dimensional finite difference computer program to study the effect of fault steps on dynamic ruptures. Our results indicate that a strike-slip earthquake is unlikely to jump a fault step wider than 5 km, in correlation with field observations of moderate to great-sized earthquakes. We also find that dynamically propagating ruptures can jump both compressional and dilational fault steps, although wider dilational fault steps can be jumped. Dilational steps tend to delay the rupture for a longer time than compressional steps do. This delay leads to a slower apparent rupture velocity in the vicinity of dilational steps. These “dry” cases assumed hydrostatic or greater pore-pressures but did not include the effects of changing pore pressures. In an additional study, we simulated the dynamic effects of a fault rupture on ‘undrained’ pore fluids to test Sibsons (1985, 1986) suggestion that “wet” dilational steps are a barrier to rupture propagation. Our numerical results validate Sibsons hypothesis by demonstrating that the effect of the rupture on the ‘undrained’ pore fluids is to inhibit the rupture from jumping dilational stepovers. The basis of our result differs from Sibsons hypothesis in that our model is purely elastic and does not necessitate the opening of extension fractures between the fault segments.

Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes

The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory ‘dynamic’ deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

Dynamic 3D simulations of earthquakes on En Echelon Faults

One of the mysteries of earthquake mechanics is why earthquakes stop. This process determines the difference between small and devastating ruptures. One possibility is that fault geometry controls earthquake size. We test this hypothesis using a numerical algorithm that simulates spontaneous rupture propagation in a three-dimensional medium and apply our knowledge to two California fault zones. We find that the size difference between the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquakes may be the product of a stepover at the southern end of the 1934 earthquake and show how the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake followed physically reasonable expectations when it jumped across en echelon faults to become a large event. If there are no linking structures, such as transfer faults, then strike-slip earthquakes are unlikely to propagate through stepover s >5 km wide.

Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure

Stress shadows generated by Californias two most recent great earthquakes (1857 Fort Tejon and 1906 San Francisco) substantially modified 19th and 20th century earthquake history in the Los Angeles basin and in the San Francisco Bay area. Simple Coulomb failure calculations, which assume that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, have done quite well at approximating how long the stress shadows, or relaxing effects, should last and at predicting where subsequent large earthquakes will not occur. There has, however, been at least one apparent exception to the predictions of such simple models. The 1911 M>6.0 earthquake near Morgan Hill, California, occurred at a relaxed site on the Calaveras fault. We examine how the more complex rate-and-state friction formalism based on laboratory experiments might have allowed the 1911 earthquake. Rate-and-state time-to-failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 event just 5 years after 1906 if the Calaveras fault was already close to failure before the effects of 1906. We also examine the likelihood that the entire 78 years of relative quiet (only four M≥6 earthquakes) in the bay area after 1906 is consistent with rate-and-state assumptions, given that the previous 7 decades produced 18 M≥6 earthquakes. Combinations of rate-and-state variables can be found that are consistent with this pattern of large bay area earthquakes, assuming that the rate of earthquakes in the 7 decades before 1906 would have continued had 1906 not occurred. These results demonstrate that rate-and-state offers a consistent explanation for the 78-year quiescence and the 1911 anomaly, although they do not rule out several alternate explanations.

In the shadow of 1857‐the effect of the Great Ft. Tejon Earthquake on subsequent earthquakes in southern California

The great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake is the largest earthquake to have hit southern California during the historic period. We investigated if seismicity patterns following 1857 could be due to static stress changes generated by the 1857 earthquake. When post-1857 earthquakes with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned strike-slip mechanisms with strike and rake determined by the nearest active fault, 13 of the 13 southern California M≥5.5 earthquakes between 1857 and 1907 were encouraged by the 1857 rupture. When post-1857 earthquakes in the Transverse Ranges with unknown focal mechanisms were assigned reverse mechanisms and all other events were assumed strike-slip, 11 of the 13 earthquakes were encouraged by the 1857 earthquake. These results show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity patterns. The correlation disappears around 1907, suggesting that tectonic loading began to overwhelm the effect of the 1857 earthquake early in the 20th century.

Fault steps and the dynamic rupture process: 2‐D numerical simulations of a spontaneously propagating shear fracture

Fault steps may have controlled the sizes of the 1966 Parkfield, 1968 Borrego Mountain, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1979 Coyote Lake and the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquakes. This project investigates the effect of fault steps of various geometries on the dynamic rupture process. We have used a finite difference code to simulate spontaneous rupture propagation in two dimensions. We employ a slip-weakening fracture criterion as the condition for rupture propagation and examine how rupture on one plane initiates rupture on parallel fault planes. The geometry of the two parallel fault planes allows for stepover widths of 0.5 to 10.0 km and overlaps of −5 to 5 km. Our results demonstrate that the spontaneous rupture on the first fault segment continues to propagate onto the second fault segment for a range of geometries for both compressional and dilational fault steps. A major difference between the compressional and dilational cases is, that a dilational step requires a longer time delay between the rupture front reaching the end of the first fault segment and initiating rupture on the second segment. Therefore our dynamic study implies that a compressional step will be jumped quickly, whereas a dilational step will cause a time delay leading to a lower apparent rupture velocity. We also find that the rupture is capable of jumping a wider dilational step than compressional step.

The 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake: A 3D dynamic stress transfer model of intraearthquake triggering

Before the August 1999 Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, earthquake, theoretical studies of earthquake ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an earthquake might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The Izmit earthquake appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large earthquake at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 Izmit earthquake provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the Izmit earthquake is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the earthquake. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future earthquakes. Manuscript received 30 August 2000.

Slip deficit on the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California, as revealed by inversion of geodetic data

A network of geodetic lines spanning the San Andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquake (magnitude M = 6) has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959. In the study reported here the average rates of line-length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault. These results indicate that the Parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966. Comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip-deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989, although this may not occur until 1995. These results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an M = 6 earthquake near Parkfield within 5 years of 1988.