Ruth Aralí Martínez-Vega

Zika Virus Infection as a Cause of Congenital Brain Abnormalities and Guillain-Barré Syndrome: Systematic Review.

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) stated in March 2016 that there was scientific consensus that the mosquito-borne Zika virus was a cause of the neurological disorder Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) and of microcephaly and other congenital brain abnormalities based on rapid evidence assessments. Decisions about causality require systematic assessment to guide public health actions. The objectives of this study were to update and reassess the evidence for causality through a rapid and systematic review about links between Zika virus infection and (a) congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, in the foetuses and offspring of pregnant women and (b) GBS in any population, and to describe the process and outcomes of an expert assessment of the evidence about causality. Methods and Findings The study had three linked components. First, in February 2016, we developed a causality framework that defined questions about the relationship between Zika virus infection and each of the two clinical outcomes in ten dimensions: temporality, biological plausibility, strength of association, alternative explanations, cessation, dose–response relationship, animal experiments, analogy, specificity, and consistency. Second, we did a systematic review (protocol number CRD42016036693). We searched multiple online sources up to May 30, 2016 to find studies that directly addressed either outcome and any causality dimension, used methods to expedite study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment, and summarised evidence descriptively. Third, WHO convened a multidisciplinary panel of experts who assessed the review findings and reached consensus statements to update the WHO position on causality. We found 1,091 unique items up to May 30, 2016. For congenital brain abnormalities, including microcephaly, we included 72 items; for eight of ten causality dimensions (all except dose–response relationship and specificity), we found that more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association with Zika virus infection. For GBS, we included 36 items, of which more than half the relevant studies supported a causal association in seven of ten dimensions (all except dose–response relationship, specificity, and animal experimental evidence). Articles identified nonsystematically from May 30 to July 29, 2016 strengthened the review findings. The expert panel concluded that (a) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and clusters of microcephaly is that Zika virus infection during pregnancy is a cause of congenital brain abnormalities including microcephaly, and (b) the most likely explanation of available evidence from outbreaks of Zika virus infection and GBS is that Zika virus infection is a trigger of GBS. The expert panel recognised that Zika virus alone may not be sufficient to cause either congenital brain abnormalities or GBS but agreed that the evidence was sufficient to recommend increased public health measures. Weaknesses are the limited assessment of the role of dengue virus and other possible cofactors, the small number of comparative epidemiological studies, and the difficulty in keeping the review up to date with the pace of publication of new research. Conclusions Rapid and systematic reviews with frequent updating and open dissemination are now needed both for appraisal of the evidence about Zika virus infection and for the next public health threats that will emerge. This systematic review found sufficient evidence to say that Zika virus is a cause of congenital abnormalities and is a trigger of GBS.

Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Mexico

Background Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies. Methods and Findings We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010–2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000–253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75–171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010–2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US

Dificultad para el diagnóstico clínico temprano del dengue en un área endémica y su impacto sobre el manejo médico inicial

170 (95%CL: 151–292) million, or

Complicaciones asociadas a la trombocitopenia profunda en pacientes con dengue

1.56 (95%CL: 1.38–2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this,

Contrasting associations of polymorphisms in FcγRIIa and DC-SIGN with the clinical presentation of dengue infection in a Mexican population.

87 (95%CL: 87–209) million or

Seroprevalence of Neutralizing Antibodies Against Dengue Virus in Two Localities in the State of Morelos, Mexico

0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62–1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36–99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden. Conclusion With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico’s potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

Predictors of spontaneous bleeding in patients with acute febrile syndrome from a dengue endemic area

BACKGROUND Early detection of dengue could help to prevent its complications. The usefulness of clinical criteria for diagnosis of the disease must be ascertained. AIMS To assess the correlation between laboratory and clinical diagnosis of dengue, done during the first consultation in the emergency room. To estimate the impact of clinical diagnosis on the initial medical treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients older than 5 years with an acute febrile syndrome that consulted during the first 72 hours of disease, during 2004, at an emergency room in Bucaramanga, Colombia, were studied. Symptoms and the clinical diagnosis of the initial evaluation were registered. Paired serum samples for dengue specific ELISA-IgM test and viral isolation were obtained. The association of the initial clinical diagnosis with early symptoms, initial medical treatment and laboratory diagnosis was evaluated. RESULTS One hundred sixty eight patients were enrolled (54 with confirmed dengue infection). Clinical diagnosis of dengue was associated to a higher request of complete blood counts (p = 0.01) and greater use of intravenous fluids (p = 0.02). However, clinical diagnosis was not correlated with the laboratory diagnosis (p = 0.15). The percentage of agreement was less than would be expected by chance (Kappa = -0.1). Headache was associated to the initial clinical diagnosis of dengue (p = 0.03), and only metrorrhagia was associated with confirmed dengue infection (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS The early clinical suspicion of dengue has a low concordance with the laboratory confirmation of the disease.

Indicadores tempranos de infección por dengue en niños

Patients with clinical andserologic (positive IgM) diagnosis of dengue, consulting at hospitals located in Santander,Colombia, during the period 1993-1998, were studied. Clinical findings and laboratory tests(including hematocrit and platelets counts) were registered. The association between severethrombocytopenia and the presence of complications, such as hemorrhagic manifestations(positive tourniquet test, petechiae, ecchymoses, bleeding from gums, epistaxis, hematemesis,hematuria and metrorrhagia) and signs of plasma leakage (pleural effusions andhaemoconcentration), were evaluated using a univariate and multivariate analysis.

Dengue in Latin America: Systematic Review of Molecular Epidemiological Trends

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a spectrum of illness from asymptomatic infection, to a mild febrile illness, to occasional more severe complications including hemorrhage and shock. Dengue is endemic in the state of Morelos, Mexico. Two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs1801274 of FcγRIIa and rs4804803 of DC-SIGN, have been associated with protection from or susceptibility to severe dengue infection. Both of these polymorphisms are located in genes for receptors with important roles in dengue pathogenesis, and their relationship with the clinical presentation of dengue infection in Mexican populations is unknown. In this study, real-time PCR was used to characterize the distribution of rs1801274 and rs4804803 in subjects with asymptomatic dengue infection (n=145), uncomplicated dengue (n=67), and severe dengue (n=36) in Morelos. In contrast with previous studies, the histidine (A) variant of rs1801274 was associated with more mild infection: carrying the histidine allele (either homozygous or heterozygous) was associated with protection from symptomatic infection compared with asymptomatic (OR 0.51, p=0.038). Histidine homozygotes were also less likely to present severe dengue (OR 0.34, p=0.05). Logistic regression models confirm this association (OR 0.48, p=0.04) and also indicate that the G allele of rs4804803 is associated with symptomatic dengue (OR 2.3, p=0.08), after accounting for other biological factors including history of infection. This variant was rare in this study population, with a frequency of 5.4%. These findings reflect the complexity of influences on the development of severe dengue infection. The inclusion of asymptomatic infections and adjusted case definitions likely do not explain the entire disparity with previous findings. Interactions with other polymorphisms may explain why the association of rs1801274 is reversed in this population compared to others. This study demonstrates the importance of genetic association studies in multiple genetically distinct populations.

Pluviosidad como Predictor de Consulta por Síndrome Febril Agudo en un Área Endémica de Dengue

Humoral immune response against dengue virus (DENV) is an important component in dengue-endemic transmission. We conducted a cross-sectional nested cohort study to determine the seroprevalence and frequency of neutralizing antibodies against DENV serotypes in two endemic localities in the state of Morelos, Mexico. The cohort participants (N = 1,196) were screened to determine previous exposure to DENV. Overall seroprevalence was 76.6% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 73.6-79.2), and prevalence of neutralizing antibodies in the 5- to 9-year-old group was 82.5% (95% CI = 67.2-92.7), 45% (95% CI = 29.3-61.5), and 65% (95% CI = 48.3-79.4) for DENV-1, DENV-2, and DENV-3, respectively. For participants older than 10 years, the observed seroprevalence was above 60% for each serotype, except DENV-4 in the 10- to 25-year-old group (42.9%); 81% of humoral responses were multitypic. The outcomes of our study contribute to understanding the immune component of dengue transmission and provide focal information for the evaluation of vaccine candidates under development.