Ruth Bonita

Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis

The UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in September, 2011, is an unprecedented opportunity to create a sustained global movement against premature death and preventable morbidity and disability from NCDs, mainly heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease. The increasing global crisis in NCDs is a barrier to development goals including poverty reduction, health equity, economic stability, and human security. The Lancet NCD Action Group and the NCD Alliance propose five overarching priority actions for the response to the crisis--leadership, prevention, treatment, international cooperation, and monitoring and accountability--and the delivery of five priority interventions--tobacco control, salt reduction, improved diets and physical activity, reduction in hazardous alcohol intake, and essential drugs and technologies. The priority interventions were chosen for their health effects, cost-effectiveness, low costs of implementation, and political and financial feasibility. The most urgent and immediate priority is tobacco control. We propose as a goal for 2040, a world essentially free from tobacco where less than 5% of people use tobacco. Implementation of the priority interventions, at an estimated global commitment of about US

Recovery of motor function after stroke.

9 billion per year, will bring enormous benefits to social and economic development and to the health sector. If widely adopted, these interventions will achieve the global goal of reducing NCD death rates by 2% per year, averting tens of millions of premature deaths in this decade.

Preventing stroke: saving lives around the world

The natural history of recovery of motor function after stroke is described using data from a 1-year community-based study in Auckland, New Zealand. Of 680 patients, 88% presented with a hemiparesis; the proportion of survivors with a persisting deficit declined to 71% at 1 month and 62% at 6 months after the onset of the stroke. At onset, there were equal proportions of people with mild, moderate, and severe motor deficits, but the majority (76%) of those who survived 6 months had either no or only a mild deficit. Recovery of motor function was associated with the stroke severity but not with age or sex; patients with a mild motor deficit at onset were 10 times more likely to recover their motor function than those with a severe stroke. Our results confirm the reasonably optimistic outcome for survivors of stroke and further suggest that recovery of motor function is confined to patients whose motor deficit at onset is either mild or moderate.

Stroke incidence and prevalence in Europe: a review of available data

Stroke caused an estimated 5.7 million deaths in 2005, and 87% of these deaths were in low-income and middle-income countries. Without intervention, the number of global deaths is projected to rise to 6.5 million in 2015 and to 7.8 million in 2030. The rising burden of stroke, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, leads us to propose a worldwide goal for stroke: a 2% reduction each year over and above that which may happen as a result of better case management and treatment. The experience of high-income countries indicates that sustained interventions can achieve at least the required 4% annual average decline in stroke mortality for people age 60-69 years. Achieving this goal for stroke would result in 6.4 million fewer deaths from stroke from 2005 to 2015. More of these deaths will be averted in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

A Multinational Comparison of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Epidemiology in the WHO MONICA Stroke Study

Reliable data on stroke incidence and prevalence are essential for calculating the burden of stroke and the planning of prevention and treatment of stroke patients. In the current study we have reviewed the published data from EU countries, Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland, and provide WHO estimates for stroke incidence and prevalence in these countries. Studies on stroke epidemiology published in peer‐reviewed journals during the past 10 years were identified using Medline/PubMed searches, and reviewed using the structure of WHOs stroke component of the WHO InfoBase. WHO estimates for stroke incidence and prevalence for each country were calculated from routine mortality statistics. Rates from studies that met the ‘ideal’ criteria were compared with WHOs estimates. Forty‐four incidence studies and 12 prevalence studies were identified. There were several methodological differences that hampered comparisons of data. WHO stroke estimates were in good agreement with results from ‘ideal’ stroke population studies. According to the WHO estimates the number of stroke events in these selected countries is likely to increase from 1.1 million per year in 2000 to more than 1.5 million per year in 2025 solely because of the demographic changes. Until better and more stroke studies are available, the WHO stroke estimates may provide the best data for understanding the stroke burden in countries where no stroke data currently exists. A standardized protocol for stroke surveillance is recommended.

Passive smoking as well as active smoking increases the risk of acute stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE By official, mostly unvalidated statistics, mortality from subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) show large variations between countries. Using uniform criteria for case ascertainment and diagnosis, a multinational comparison of attack rates and case fatality rates of SAH has been performed within the framework of the WHO MONICA Project. METHODS In 25- to 64-year-old men and women, a total of 3368 SAH events were recorded during 35.9 million person-years of observation in 11 populations in Europe and China. Strict MONICA criteria were used for case ascertainment and diagnosis of stroke subtype. Case fatality was based on follow-up at 28 days after onset. RESULTS Age-adjusted average annual SAH attack rates varied 10-fold among the 11 populations studied, from 2.0 (95% CI 1.6 to 2.4) per 100 000 population per year in China-Beijing to 22.5 (95% CI 20.9 to 24.1) per 100 000 population per year in Finland. No consistent pattern was observed in the sex ratio of attack rates in the different populations. The overall 28-day case fatality rate was 42%, with 2-fold differences in age-adjusted rates between populations but little difference between men and women. Case fatality rates were consistently higher in Eastern than in Western Europe. CONCLUSIONS Using a uniform methodology, the WHO MONICA Project has shown very large variations in attack rates of SAH across 11 populations in Europe and China. The generally accepted view that women have a higher risk of SAH than men does not apply to all populations. Marked differences in outcome of SAH add to the wide gap in the burden of stroke between East and West Europe.

UN High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases: addressing four questions

OBJECTIVE To estimate the relative risk of stroke associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS, passive smoking) and to estimate the risk of stroke associated with current smoking (active smoking) using the traditional baseline group (never-smokers) and a baseline group that includes lifelong non-smokers and long-term (>10 years) ex-smokers who have not been exposed to ETS. DESIGN AND SETTING Population-based case-control study in residents of Auckland, New Zealand. SUBJECTS Cases were obtained from the Auckland stroke study, a population-based register of acute stroke. Controls were obtained from a cross-sectional survey of major cardiovascular risk factors measured in the same population. A standard questionaire was administered to patients and controls by trained nurse interviewers. RESULTS Information was available for 521 patients with first-ever acute stroke and 1851 community controls aged 35–74 years. After adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, history of hypertension, heart disease, and diabetes) using logistic regression, exposure to ETS among non-smokers and long-term ex-smokers was associated with a significantly increased risk of stroke (odds ratio (OR) = 1.82; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.34 to 2.49). The risk was significant in men (OR = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.33 to 3.32) and women (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.57). Active smokers had a fourfold risk of stroke compared with people who reported they had never smoked cigarettes (OR = 4.14; 95% CI = 3.04 to 5.63); the risk increased when active smokers were compared with people who had never smoked or had quit smoking more than 10 years earlier and who were not exposed to ETS (OR = 6.33; 95% CI = 4.50 to 8.91). CONCLUSIONS This study is one of the few to investigate the association between passive smoking and the risk of acute stroke. We found a significantly increased risk of stroke in men and in women. This study also confirms the higher risk of stroke in men and women who smoke cigarettes compared with non-smokers. The stroke risk increases further when those who have been exposed to ETS are excluded from the non-smoking reference group. These findings also suggest that studies investigating the adverse effects of smoking will underestimate the risk if exposure to ETS is not taken into account.

International trends in stroke mortality: 1970-1985.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), principally heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases, are a global crisis and require a global response. Despite the threat to human development, and the availability of affordable, cost-effective, and feasible interventions, most countries, development agencies, and foundations neglect the crisis. The UN High-Level Meeting (UN HLM) on NCDs in September, 2011, is an opportunity to stimulate a coordinated global response to NCDs that is commensurate with their health and economic burdens. To achieve the promise of the UN HLM, several questions must be addressed. In this report, we present the realities of the situation by answering four questions: is there really a global crisis of NCDs; how is NCD a development issue; are affordable and cost-effective interventions available; and do we really need high-level leadership and accountability? Action against NCDs will support other global health and development priorities. A successful outcome of the UN HLM depends on the heads of states and governments attending the meeting, and endorsing and implementing the commitments to action. Long-term success requires inspired and committed national and international leadership.

Subarachnoid hemorrhage: epidemiology, diagnosis, management, and outcome.

We compared the pattern of cerebrovascular disease (stroke) mortality in men and women aged 40-69 years in 27 countries during 1970-1985 with the decline in coronary heart disease mortality during the same period. Stroke mortality rates declined in 21 and 25 countries for men and women, respectively. In 23 countries the decline in stroke mortality in women was greater than that in men. Countries with the highest rates of stroke mortality are also those with the least favorable secular trend. The rate of decline for stroke mortality is greater than that for coronary heart disease mortality in those countries that experienced a decline in both categories. International comparisons of risk factor levels over time are required to explain the striking differences between countries.

Health-Related Quality of Life Among Long-Term Survivors of Stroke: Results From the Auckland Stroke Study, 1991–1992

A population-based study of primary subarachnoid hemorrhage in Auckland (population 829,454), New Zealand, identified 180 cases in a two-year period. This represented an age adjusted incidence rate of 10.5 and 18.3 per 100,000 for men and women respectively. Sixty-eight percent of all cases had a proven intracranial aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation, 15% had negative angiographic findings and in the remaining 17%, the presence or absence of a localized lesion was unknown since neither angiography nor autopsy were performed. Twenty-six patients (15%) died before hospitalization and a further 36 patients (20%) died within 48 hours of onset. Only 94 patients (53% of all patients registered) were fit enough to undergo angiography. A surgical operation was carried out on 60 of the 68 patients in whom an aneurysm was confirmed at angiography. The overall case fatality rate was 36% within the first 48 hours, 43% in the first week and 57% at both six months and one year. The high early case fatality rates are similar to those found in previous population-based studies, suggesting that despite the major advances to individual patients from technological advances, the potential contribution of hospital management to the reduction of subarachnoid haemorrhage mortality rates is likely to be limited.