Ruth G. Curry

Oceanic transport of subpolar climate signals to mid-depth subtropical waters

The spatial distributions of certain sea-surface properties, such as temperature, fluctuate on timescales from months to decades and in synchrony with the main regional atmospheric patterns comprising the global climate system. Although it has long been assumed that the ocean is submissive to the dictates of the atmosphere, recent studies raise the possibility of an assertive, not merely passive, oceanic role in which water-mass circulation controls the timescales of climate fluctuations. Previously held notions of the immutability of the physical and chemical characteristics of deep water masses are changing as longer time series of ocean measurements indicate that the signatures of varying sea-surface conditions are translated to deep waters,. Here we use such time-series measurements to track signals ‘imprinted’ at the sea surface in the North Atlantic Oceans subpolar Labrador Basin into the deep water of the subtropical basins near Bermuda, and infer an approximately 6-year transit time. We establish a geographic and temporal context for a portion of the long-term warming trend reported for mid-depth subtropical waters over the past 40 or so years,, and we predict that waters at these depths will continue to cool well into the next decade.

Trajectory shifts in the Arctic and subarctic freshwater cycle.

Manifold changes in the freshwater cycle of high-latitude lands and oceans have been reported in the past few years. A synthesis of these changes in freshwater sources and in ocean freshwater storage illustrates the complementary and synoptic temporal pattern and magnitude of these changes over the past 50 years. Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net precipitation on the ocean contributed ∼20,000 cubic kilometers of fresh water to the Arctic and high-latitude North Atlantic oceans from lows in the 1960s to highs in the 1990s. Sea ice attrition provided another ∼15,000 cubic kilometers, and glacial melt added ∼2000 cubic kilometers. The sum of anomalous inputs from these freshwater sources matched the amount and rate at which fresh water accumulated in the North Atlantic during much of the period from 1965 through 1995. The changes in freshwater inputs and ocean storage occurred in conjunction with the amplifying North Atlantic Oscillation and rising air temperatures. Fresh water may now be accumulating in the Arctic Ocean and will likely be exported southward if and when the North Atlantic Oscillation enters into a new high phase.

Ocean Gyre Circulation Changes Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Observational evidence is presented for interannual to interdecadal variability in the intensity of the North Atlantic gyre circulation related to the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. A two-point baroclinic pressure difference between the subtropical and subpolar gyre centers—an oceanic analogue to the much-used sea level pressure (SLP)-based atmospheric NAO indices—is constructed from time series of potential energy anomaly (PEA) derived from hydrographic measurements in the Labrador Basin and at Station S near Bermuda. Representing the upper 2000-db eastward baroclinic mass transport between the two centers, the transport index indicates a Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current that gradually weakened during the low NAO period of the 1960s and then intensified in the subsequent 25 years of persistently high NAO to a record peak in the 1990s. The peak-to-peak amplitude difference was 15–20 megatons per second (MT s−1) with a 43-yr mean of about 60 MT s−1 a change of 25%–33%...

The Ocean's Response to North Atlantic Oscillation Variability

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic Sector. Basin scale changes in the atmospheric forcing significantly affect properties and circulation of the ocean. Part of the response is local and rapid (surface temperature, mixed-layer depth, upper ocean heat content, surface Ekman transport, sea ice cover). However, the geostrophically balanced large-scale horizontal and overturning circulation can take several years to adjust to changes in the forcing. The delayed response is non-local in the sense that waves and the mean circulation communicate perturbations at the air-sea interface to other parts of the Atlantic basin. A delayed and non-local response can potentially give rise to oscillatory behavior if there is significant feedback from the ocean to the atmosphere. We conjecture that, on decadal and longer time scales, changes in the oceans heat storage and transport should have an increasingly important impact on the climate. Finally, changes in the ocean circulation and distribution of heat and freshwater will also alter ventilation rates and pathways. Thus we expect a change in the net uptake of gases (e.g., O 2 , CO 2 ), altered nutrient balance, and changes in the dispersion of marine life. We review what is known about the oceanic response to changes in NAO-induced forcing from combined theoretical, numerical experimentation and observational perspectives.

Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5°N

Continuous estimates of the oceanic meridional heat transport in the Atlantic are derived from the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) observing system deployed along 26.5°N, for the period from April 2004 to October 2007. The basinwide meridional heat transport (MHT) is derived by combining temperature transports (relative to a common reference) from 1) the Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida; 2) the western boundary region offshore of Abaco, Bahamas; 3) the Ekman layer [derived from Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stresses]; and 4) the interior ocean monitored by “endpoint” dynamic height moorings. The interior eddy heat transport arising from spatial covariance of the velocity and temperature fields is estimated independently from repeat hydrographic and expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections and can also be approximated by the array. The results for the 3.5 yr of data thus far available show a mean MHT of 1.33 ± 0.40 PW for 10-day-averaged estimates, on which time scale a basinwide mass balance can be reasonably assumed. The associated MOC strength and variability is 18.5 ± 4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The continuous heat transport estimates range from a minimum of 0.2 to a maximum of 2.5 PW, with approximately half of the variance caused by Ekman transport changes and half caused by changes in the geostrophic circulation. The data suggest a seasonal cycle of the MHT with a maximum in summer (July–September) and minimum in late winter (March–April), with an annual range of 0.6 PW. A breakdown of the MHT into “overturning” and “gyre” components shows that the overturning component carries 88% of the total heat transport. The overall uncertainty of the annual mean MHT for the 3.5-yr record is 0.14 PW or about 10% of the mean value.

The arrival of recently formed Labrador Sea Water in the deep western boundary current at 26.5 °N

The Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) of the North Atlantic is a principal conduit between the formation region for Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and the oceanic interior to the south. Time series (1985–1997) of hydrographic properties obtained in the DWBC at 26.5°N show that prior to 1994, temperature, salinity, and transient tracer properties within the LSW density range showed little indication of recently formed parcels. Properties characteristic of a newer version of LSW (cooler, fresher, and higher tracer concentrations) were observed beginning in 1994 and continuing through 1997. Longer time series of temperature and salinity, developed from a regional data base, show both the 1994 and a 1980–1981 event in the Abaco region. Both events are consistent with anomalies in the Labrador Sea that occurred some 10 years earlier. The 10-year transit time from the Labrador Sea to 26.5°N is less than the 18-year transit time inferred from earlier studies.

An Isopycnally Averaged North Pacific Climatology

Abstract Approximately a quarter of a million hydrographic stations extracted from the North Pacific World Ocean Atlas 1994 have been subjected to a statistical quality control to produce a Pacific climatology in the spirit of the Atlantic hydrobase. The CTD casts from the publicly available World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and pre-WOCE cruises have also been included, and where available, nutrient data have been retained. Particular attention has been paid to the quality control of the 200 000 stations that lie within the region surrounding Japan as it was determined that much of these data contained suspicious salinity values. A comparison with the gridded World Ocean Atlas 1994 confirms expectations that within deep waters over much of the North Pacific the relatively flat isopycnal surfaces produce only small differences between the two climatologies. Closer to surface, however, the differences between the datasets are far more apparent. The major differences (as large as 1.3°C and 0.2 psu at...

Recent changes in the North Atlantic.

It has long been recognized that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is potentially sensitive to greenhouse–gas and other climate forcing, and that changes in the MOC have the potential to cause abrupt climate change. However, the mechanisms remain poorly understood and our ability to detect these changes remains incomplete. Four main (interrelated) types of ocean change in particular are associated in the literature with greenhouse–gas forcing. These are: a slowing of MOC overturning rate; changes in northern seas which might effect a change in Atlantic overturning, including changes in the freshwater flux from the Arctic, and changes in the transport and/or hydrographic character of the northern overflows which ventilate the deep Atlantic; a change in the trans–ocean gradients of steric height (both zonal and meridional) which might accompany a change in the MOC; and an intensification of the global water cycle. Though as yet we have no direct measure of the freshwater flux passing from the Arctic to the Atlantic either via the Canadian Arctic Archipelago or along the East Greenland Shelf, and no direct measure yet of the Atlantic overturning rate, we examine a wide range of time–series from the existing hydrographic record for oceanic evidence of the other anticipated responses. Large amplitude and sustained changes are found (or indicated by proxy) over the past three to four decades in the southward transport of fresh waters along the Labrador shelf and slope, in the hydrography of the deep dense overflows from Nordic seas, in the transport of the eastern overflow through Faroe Bank Channel, and in the global hydrologic cycle. Though the type and scale of changes in ocean salinity are consistent with an amplification of the water cycle, we find no convincing evidence of any significant, concerted slowdown in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

CMIP5 Model Intercomparison of Freshwater Budget and Circulation in the North Atlantic

The subpolar North Atlantic is a center of variability of ocean properties, wind stress curl, and air‐sea exchanges. Observations and hindcast simulations suggest that from the early 1970s to the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre became fresher while the gyre and meridional circulations intensified. This is opposite to the relationship of freshening causing a weakened circulation, most often reproduced by climate models. The authors hypothesize that both these configurations exist but dominate on different time scales: a fresher subpolar gyre when the circulation is more intense, at interannual frequencies (configuration A), and a saltier subpolargyrewhenthecirculationismoreintense,atlongerperiods(configurationB).Ratherthangoinginto the detail of the mechanisms sustaining each configuration, the authors’ objective is to identify which configuration dominates and to test whether this depends on frequency, in preindustrial control runs of five climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To this end, the authors have developed a novel intercomparison method that enables analysis of freshwater budget and circulation changes in a physical perspective that overcomes model specificities. Lag correlations and a crossspectral analysis between freshwater content changes and circulation indices validate the authors’ hypothesis, as configuration A is only visible at interannual frequencies while configuration B is mostly visible at decadal and longer periods, suggesting that the driving role of salinity on the circulation depends on frequency. Overall, this analysis underscores the large differences among state-of-the-art climate models in their representations of the North Atlantic freshwater budget.

Time series measurements of transient tracers and tracer derived transport in the deep western boundary current between the Labrador Sea and the subtropical Atlantic Ocean at Line W

Time series measurements of the nuclear fuel reprocessing tracer, 129I and the gas ventilation tracer, CFC-11 were undertaken on the AR7W section in the Labrador Sea (1997-2014) and on Line W (2004-2014), located over the US continental slope off Cape Cod, to determine advection and mixing time scales for the transport of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Tracer measurements were also conducted in 2010 over the continental rise southeast of Bermuda to intercept the equator-ward flow of DSOW by interior pathways. The Labrador Sea tracer and hydrographic time series data were used as input functions in a boundary current model that employs transit time distributions to simulate the effects of mixing and advection on downstream tracer distributions. Model simulations of tracer levels in the boundary current core and adjacent interior (shoulder) region with which mixing occurs were compared with the Line W time series measurements to determine boundary current model parameters. These results indicate that DSOW is transported from the Labrador Sea to Line W via the DWBC on a time scale of 5-6 y corresponding to a mean flow velocity of 2.7 cm/s while mixing between the core and interior regions occurs with a time constant of 2.6 y. A tracer section over the southern flank of the Bermuda rise indicates that the flow of DSOW that separated from the DWBC had undergone transport through interior pathways on a time scale of 9 y with a mixing time constant of 4 y. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.