Ruth M. Pfeiffer

Human Papillomavirus and Rising Oropharyngeal Cancer Incidence in the United States

PURPOSE Recent increases in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but empirical evidence is lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS HPV status was determined for all 271 oropharyngeal cancers (1984-2004) collected by the three population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Residual Tissue Repositories Program by using polymerase chain reaction and genotyping (Inno-LiPA), HPV16 viral load, and HPV16 mRNA expression. Trends in HPV prevalence across four calendar periods were estimated by using logistic regression. Observed HPV prevalence was reweighted to all oropharyngeal cancers within the cancer registries to account for nonrandom selection and to calculate incidence trends. Survival of HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients was compared by using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS HPV prevalence in oropharyngeal cancers significantly increased over calendar time regardless of HPV detection assay (P trend < .05). For example, HPV prevalence by Inno-LiPA increased from 16.3% during 1984 to 1989 to 71.7% during 2000 to 2004. Median survival was significantly longer for HPV-positive than for HPV-negative patients (131 v 20 months; log-rank P < .001; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.46). Survival significantly increased across calendar periods for HPV-positive (P = .003) but not for HPV-negative patients (P = .18). Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers increased by 225% (95% CI, 208% to 242%) from 1988 to 2004 (from 0.8 per 100,000 to 2.6 per 100,000), and incidence for HPV-negative cancers declined by 50% (95% CI, 47% to 53%; from 2.0 per 100,000 to 1.0 per 100,000). If recent incidence trends continue, the annual number of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers is expected to surpass the annual number of cervical cancers by the year 2020. CONCLUSION Increases in the population-level incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States since 1984 are caused by HPV infection.

Spectrum of Cancer Risk Among US Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

CONTEXT Solid organ transplant recipients have elevated cancer risk due to immunosuppression and oncogenic viral infections. Because most prior research has concerned kidney recipients, large studies that include recipients of differing organs can inform cancer etiology. OBJECTIVE To describe the overall pattern of cancer following solid organ transplantation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cohort study using linked data on solid organ transplant recipients from the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (1987-2008) and 13 state and regional cancer registries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) assessing relative and absolute cancer risk in transplant recipients compared with the general population. RESULTS The registry linkages yielded data on 175,732 solid organ transplants (58.4% for kidney, 21.6% for liver, 10.0% for heart, and 4.0% for lung). The overall cancer risk was elevated with 10,656 cases and an incidence of 1375 per 100,000 person-years (SIR, 2.10 [95% CI, 2.06-2.14]; EAR, 719.3 [95% CI, 693.3-745.6] per 100,000 person-years). Risk was increased for 32 different malignancies, some related to known infections (eg, anal cancer, Kaposi sarcoma) and others unrelated (eg, melanoma, thyroid and lip cancers). The most common malignancies with elevated risk were non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 1504; incidence: 194.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 7.54 [95% CI, 7.17-7.93]; EAR, 168.3 [95% CI, 158.6-178.4] per 100,000 person-years) and cancers of the lung (n = 1344; incidence: 173.4 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.86-2.08]; EAR, 85.3 [95% CI, 76.2-94.8] per 100,000 person-years), liver (n = 930; incidence: 120.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 11.56 [95% CI, 10.83-12.33]; EAR, 109.6 [95% CI, 102.0-117.6] per 100,000 person-years), and kidney (n = 752; incidence: 97.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 4.65 [95% CI, 4.32-4.99]; EAR, 76.1 [95% CI, 69.3-83.3] per 100,000 person-years). Lung cancer risk was most elevated in lung recipients (SIR, 6.13 [95% CI, 5.18-7.21]) but also increased among other recipients (kidney: SIR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.34-1.59]; liver: SIR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.74-2.19]; and heart: SIR, 2.67 [95% CI, 2.40-2.95]). Liver cancer risk was elevated only among liver recipients (SIR, 43.83 [95% CI, 40.90-46.91]), who manifested exceptional risk in the first 6 months (SIR, 508.97 [95% CI, 474.16-545.66]) and a 2-fold excess risk for 10 to 15 years thereafter (SIR, 2.22 [95% CI, 1.57-3.04]). Among kidney recipients, kidney cancer risk was elevated (SIR, 6.66 [95% CI, 6.12-7.23]) and bimodal in onset time. Kidney cancer risk also was increased in liver recipients (SIR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.40-2.29]) and heart recipients (SIR, 2.90 [95% CI, 2.32-3.59]). CONCLUSION Compared with the general population, recipients of a kidney, liver, heart, or lung transplant have an increased risk for diverse infection-related and unrelated cancers.

Trends in cancer risk among people with AIDS in the United States 1980-2002.

Background:People with AIDS have heightened cancer risk from immunosuppression. HAART has been available since 1996 and has reduced AIDS-related mortality, but there are few large-scale studies on cancer trends. Methods:AIDS and cancer registries in 11 US regions (1980–2002) were used to identify cancers in 375 933 people with AIDS. Cancer risk relative to the general population was measured using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR), focusing on the 2 years after AIDS onset for those with AIDS in 1990–1995 and 1996–2002 (HAART era). Time trends were assessed with Poisson regression. Results:Between 1990–1995 and 1996–2002, risk declined for the two major AIDS-defining cancers: Kaposi sarcoma [(KS) n = 5131; SIR, 22 100 and 3640, respectively; P < 0.0001] and non-Hodgkin lymphoma [(NHL) n = 3412; SIR, 53.2 and 22.6, respectively; P < 0.0001]. Declines began in the 1980s, but risk fell sharply in 1996 and was stable thereafter. Risk of cervical cancer did not change (n = 64; SIR, 4.2 and 5.3, respectively; P = 0.33). Among non-AIDS malignancies, lung cancer was most common, but risk declined between 1990–1995 and 1996–2002 (n = 344; SIR, 3.3 and 2.6, respectively; P = 0.02). Risk of Hodgkin lymphoma increased substantially over the 1990–2002 period (n = 149; SIR, 8.1 and 13.6, respectively; P = 0.003). Conclusions:Dramatic declines in KS and NHL were temporally related to improving therapies, especially introduction of HAART, but those with AIDS remain at marked risk. Among non-AIDS-related cancers, a recent increase in Hodgkin lymphoma was observed.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) consistently precedes multiple myeloma: a prospective study.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant plasma-cell proliferative disorder associated with a life-long risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM). It is not known whether MM is always preceded by a premalignant asymptomatic MGUS stage. Among 77,469 healthy adults enrolled in the nationwide population-based prospective Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, we identified 71 subjects who developed MM during the course of the study in whom serially collected (up to 6) prediagnostic serum samples obtained 2 to 9.8 years prior to MM diagnosis were available. Using assays for monoclonal (M)-proteins (electrophoresis/immunofixation) and kappa-lambda free light chains (FLCs), we determined longitudinally the prevalence of MGUS and characterized patterns of monoclonal immunoglobulin abnormalities prior to MM diagnosis. MGUS was present in 100.0% (87.2%-100.0%), 98.3% (90.8%-100.0%), 97.9% (88.9%-100.0%), 94.6% (81.8%-99.3%), 100.0% (86.3%-100.0%), 93.3% (68.1%-99.8%), and 82.4% (56.6%-96.2%) at 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8+ years prior to MM diagnosis, respectively. In approximately half the study population, the M-protein concentration and involved FLC-ratio levels showed a yearly increase prior to MM diagnosis. In the present study, an asymptomatic MGUS stage consistently preceded MM. Novel molecular markers are needed to better predict progression to MM in patients with MGUS.

A variant upstream of IFNL3 ( IL28B ) creating a new interferon gene IFNL4 is associated with impaired clearance of hepatitis C virus

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a common cause of liver cirrhosis and cancer. We performed RNA sequencing in primary human hepatocytes activated with synthetic double-stranded RNA to mimic HCV infection. Upstream of IFNL3 (IL28B) on chromosome 19q13.13, we discovered a new transiently induced region that harbors a dinucleotide variant ss469415590 (TT or ΔG), which is in high linkage disequilibrium with rs12979860, a genetic marker strongly associated with HCV clearance. ss469415590[ΔG] is a frameshift variant that creates a novel gene, designated IFNL4, encoding the interferon-λ4 protein (IFNL4), which is moderately similar to IFNL3. Compared to rs12979860, ss469415590 is more strongly associated with HCV clearance in individuals of African ancestry, although it provides comparable information in Europeans and Asians. Transient overexpression of IFNL4 in a hepatoma cell line induced STAT1 and STAT2 phosphorylation and the expression of interferon-stimulated genes. Our findings provide new insights into the genetic regulation of HCV clearance and its clinical management.

Cancer Burden in the HIV-Infected Population in the United States

BACKGROUND Effective antiretroviral therapy has reduced the risk of AIDS and dramatically prolonged the survival of HIV-infected people in the United States. Consequently, an increasing number of HIV-infected people are at risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers that typically occur at older ages. We estimated the annual number of cancers in the HIV-infected population, both with and without AIDS, in the United States. METHODS Incidence rates for individual cancer types were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study by linking 15 HIV and cancer registries in the United States. Estimated counts of the US HIV-infected and AIDS populations were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data. We obtained estimated counts of AIDS-defining (ie, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers in the US AIDS population during 1991-2005 by multiplying cancer incidence rates and AIDS population counts, stratified by year, age, sex, race and ethnicity, transmission category, and AIDS-relative time. We tested trends in counts and standardized incidence rates using linear regression models. We multiplied overall cancer rates and HIV-only (HIV infected, without AIDS) population counts, available from 34 US states during 2004-2007, to estimate cancers in the HIV-only population. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The US AIDS population expanded fourfold from 1991 to 2005 (96,179 to 413,080) largely because of an increase in the number of people aged 40 years or older. During 1991-2005, an estimated 79 656 cancers occurred in the AIDS population. From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, the estimated number of AIDS-defining cancers decreased by greater than threefold (34,587 to 10,325 cancers; P(trend) < .001), whereas non-AIDS-defining cancers increased by approximately threefold (3193 to 10,059 cancers; P(trend) < .001). From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, estimated counts increased for anal (206 to 1564 cancers), liver (116 to 583 cancers), prostate (87 to 759 cancers), and lung cancers (875 to 1882 cancers), and Hodgkin lymphoma (426 to 897 cancers). In the HIV-only population in 34 US states, an estimated 2191 non-AIDS-defining cancers occurred during 2004-2007, including 454 lung, 166 breast, and 154 anal cancers. CONCLUSIONS Over a 15-year period (1991-2005), increases in non-AIDS-defining cancers were mainly driven by growth and aging of the AIDS population. This growing burden requires targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies.

Performance of common genetic variants in breast-cancer risk models.

BACKGROUND Genomewide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with breast cancer. The extent to which these variants add to existing risk-assessment models is unknown. METHODS We used information on traditional risk factors and 10 common genetic variants associated with breast cancer in 5590 case subjects and 5998 control subjects, 50 to 79 years of age, from four U.S. cohort studies and one case-control study from Poland to fit models of the absolute risk of breast cancer. With the use of receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis, we calculated the area under the curve (AUC) as a measure of discrimination. By definition, random classification of case and control subjects provides an AUC of 50%; perfect classification provides an AUC of 100%. We calculated the fraction of case subjects in quintiles of estimated absolute risk after the addition of genetic variants to the traditional risk model. RESULTS The AUC for a risk model with age, study and entry year, and four traditional risk factors was 58.0%; with the addition of 10 genetic variants, the AUC was 61.8%. About half the case subjects (47.2%) were in the same quintile of risk as in a model without genetic variants; 32.5% were in a higher quintile, and 20.4% were in a lower quintile. CONCLUSIONS The inclusion of newly discovered genetic factors modestly improved the performance of risk models for breast cancer. The level of predicted breast-cancer risk among most women changed little after the addition of currently available genetic information.

Malignant thymoma in the United States: demographic patterns in incidence and associations with subsequent malignancies.

The cause of thymoma is unknown. No population‐based study has described demographic patterns of thymoma incidence. Previous reports have linked thymoma with diverse subsequent malignancies, but these associations are uncertain. We used Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data to study the incidence of malignant thymoma by sex, age and race in the United States (1973–1998). Incidence was modeled with joinpoint regression (for age) and Poisson regression. We also used SEER data to compare malignancies following thymoma diagnosis with those expected from general population rates, calculating the standardized incidence ratio (SIR, observed/expected cases) to measure risk. The overall incidence of malignant thymoma was 0.15 per 100,000 person‐years (849 cases). Thymoma incidence increased into the 8th decade of age and then decreased. Incidence was higher in males than females (p=0.007) and was highest among Asians/Pacific Islanders (0.49 per 100,000 person‐years). Following thymoma, there were 66 malignancies (SIR 1.5, 95%CI 1.2–1.9). The most notable excess risk for subsequent malignancy was for non‐Hodgkins lymphoma (B immunophenotype) where the SIR was 4.7 (95%CI 1.9–9.6, 7 cases). There were also excess digestive system cancers (SIR 1.8, 95%CI 1.1–2.9) and soft tissue sarcomas (SIR 11.1, 1.3–40.1). No other cancers were increased after thymoma. In conclusion, malignant thymoma is extremely rare. The peak in late adulthood deserves further study. Variation in incidence by race suggests a role for genetic factors. Our study did not demonstrate broadly increased risk for malignancies following thymoma.

The Association of Telomere Length and Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

Background: Telomeres shorten with each cell division and are essential for chromosomal stability. Short telomeres in surrogate tissues (e.g., blood cells) are associated with increased cancer risk in several case–control studies, but findings are inconsistent in prospective studies. Methods: We systematically reviewed studies published prior to August 30, 2010, on the association between telomere length (TL) in surrogate tissues and cancer. There were 27 reports on 13 cancers and/or incident cancer investigating this association. The majority, 16, were retrospective case–control studies, 11 were prospective studies. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine ORs and 95% CIs for these studies. Results: Studies on bladder, esophageal, gastric, head and neck, ovarian, renal, and overall incident cancer found associations between short telomeres and these cancers. Non–Hodgkin lymphoma, breast, lung, and colorectal cancer reports were inconsistent. Single studies on endometrial, prostate, and skin cancers were null. In a random-effects meta-analysis, short TL was significantly associated with cancer in retrospective studies (pooled OR for the shortest TL quartile compared with the longest: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.75–4.8, P < 0.0001). The pooled OR for prospective studies was 1.16 (95% CI: 0.87–1.54, P = 0.32). All studies combined yielded a pooled OR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.37–2.81, P = 0.0001) for the association of short TL and cancer. Conclusion and Impact: There is suggestive evidence that short surrogate tissue TL is associated with cancer; the strongest evidence exists for bladder, esophageal, gastric, and renal cancers. Additional prospective studies with consistent methodology are needed to confirm this hypothesis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 20(6); 1238–50. ©2011 AACR.

Adverse Health Outcomes in Women Exposed In Utero to Diethylstilbestrol

BACKGROUND Before 1971, several million women were exposed in utero to diethylstilbestrol (DES) given to their mothers to prevent pregnancy complications. Several adverse outcomes have been linked to such exposure, but their cumulative effects are not well understood. METHODS We combined data from three studies initiated in the 1970s with continued long-term follow-up of 4653 women exposed in utero to DES and 1927 unexposed controls. We assessed the risks of 12 adverse outcomes linked to DES exposure, including cumulative risks to 45 years of age for reproductive outcomes and to 55 years of age for other outcomes, and their relationships to the baseline presence or absence of vaginal epithelial changes, which are correlated with a higher dose of, and earlier exposure to, DES in utero. RESULTS Cumulative risks in women exposed to DES, as compared with those not exposed, were as follows: for infertility, 33.3% vs. 15.5% (hazard ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.05 to 2.75); spontaneous abortion, 50.3% vs. 38.6% (hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.42 to 1.88); preterm delivery, 53.3% vs. 17.8% (hazard ratio, 4.68; 95% CI, 3.74 to 5.86); loss of second-trimester pregnancy, 16.4% vs. 1.7% (hazard ratio, 3.77; 95% CI, 2.56 to 5.54); ectopic pregnancy, 14.6% vs. 2.9% (hazard ratio, 3.72; 95% CI, 2.58 to 5.38); preeclampsia, 26.4% vs. 13.7% (hazard ratio 1.42; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.89); stillbirth, 8.9% vs. 2.6% (hazard ratio, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.33 to 4.54); early menopause, 5.1% vs. 1.7% (hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.67 to 3.31); grade 2 or higher cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, 6.9% vs. 3.4% (hazard ratio, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.59 to 3.27); and breast cancer at 40 years of age or older, 3.9% vs. 2.2% (hazard ratio, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.18). For most outcomes, the risks among exposed women were higher for those with vaginal epithelial changes than for those without such changes. CONCLUSIONS In utero exposure of women to DES is associated with a high lifetime risk of a broad spectrum of adverse health outcomes. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).