Ruth Mottram

Quantifying Energy and Mass Fluxes Controlling Godthåbsfjord Freshwater Input in a 5-km Simulation (1991–2012)*,+

AbstractFreshwater runoff to fjords with marine-terminating glaciers along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin has an impact on fjord circulation and potentially ice sheet mass balance through increasing heat transport to the glacier front. Here, the authors use the high-resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model, allowing high detail in topography and surface types, to estimate freshwater input to Godthabsfjord in southwest Greenland. Model output is compared to hydrometeorological observations and, while simulated daily variability in temperature and downwelling radiation shows high correlation with observations (typically >0.9), there are biases that impact the results. In particular, overestimated albedo leads to underestimation of melt and runoff at low elevations.In the model simulation (1991–2012), the ice sheet experiences increasing energy input from the surface turbulent heat flux (up to elevations of 2000 m) and shortwave radiation (at all elevations). Southerly wind anomalies and declining ...

The implication of nonradiative energy fluxes dominating Greenland ice sheet exceptional ablation area surface melt in 2012

During two exceptionally large July 2012 multiday Greenland ice sheet melt episodes, nonradiative energy fluxes (sensible, latent, rain, and subsurface collectively) dominated the ablation area surface energy budget of the southern and western ice sheet. On average the nonradiative energy fluxes contributed up to 76% of daily melt energy at nine automatic weather station sites in Greenland. Comprising 6% of the ablation period, these powerful melt episodes resulted in 12–15% of the south and west Greenland automatic weather station annual ablation totals. Analysis of high resolution (~5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model output indicates widespread dominance of nonradiative energy fluxes across the western ablation area during these episodes. Yet HIRHAM5 still underestimates melt by up to 56% during these episodes due to a systematic underestimation of turbulent energy fluxes typical of regional climate models. This has implications for underestimating future melt, when exceptional melt episodes are expected to occur more frequently.

Glacier crevasses: Observations, models, and mass balance implications

We review the findings of approximately 60 years of in situ and remote sensing studies of glacier crevasses, as well as the three broad classes of numerical models now employed to simulate crevasse fracture. The relatively new insight that mixed-mode fracture in local stress equilibrium, rather than downstream advection alone, can introduce nontrivial curvature to crevasse geometry may merit the reinterpretation of some key historical observation studies. In the past three decades, there have been tremendous advances in the spatial resolution of satellite imagery, as well as fully automated algorithms capable of tracking crevasse displacements between repeat images. Despite considerable advances in developing fully transient three-dimensional ice flow models over the past two decades, both the zero stress and linear elastic fracture mechanics crevasse models have remained fundamentally unchanged over this time. In the past decade, however, multidimensional and transient formulations of the continuum damage mechanics approach to simulating ice fracture have emerged. The combination of employing damage mechanics to represent slow upstream deterioration of ice strength and fracture mechanics to represent rapid failure at downstream termini holds promise for implementation in large-scale ice sheet models. Finally, given the broad interest in the sea level rise implications of recent and future cryospheric change, we provide a synthesis of 10 mechanisms by which crevasses can influence glacier mass balance.

Testing crevasse-depth models: a field study at Breiðamerkurjokull, Iceland

Interest in crevasses and associated ice-fracture processes has recently increased due to recognition of the importance of calving glaciers to the mass balance of the cryosphere, as well as the importance of fractures in glacier hydrology. Recently developed calving criteria make use of models which predict crevasse depth from surface strain rates, but these models have rarely been tested against observations. In this study, we present data on crevasse depth and surface strain rates, and compare the measured values with results of two crevasse-depth models: a simple function proposed by Nye and a linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) model developed by Van der Veen. Our results indicate that both models predict crevasse depths within the correct order of magnitude. The LEFM model, incorporating measured values of crevasse spacing and tuned for fracture toughness, performs better in predicting crevasse depths, but where lack of input data precludes such tuning, the results are similar to Nyes model predictions. We conclude that both models may be used to calculate crevasse depths in calving models, although the Nye function is undoubtedly much simpler to implement within an ice- dynamics model.

Liquid Water Flow and Retention on the Greenland Ice Sheet in the Regional Climate Model HIRHAM5: Local and Large-Scale Impacts

To improve Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance (SMB) simulation, the subsurface scheme of the HIRHAM5 regional climate model was extended to include snow densification, varying hydraulic conductivity, irreducible water saturation and other effects on snow liquid water percolation and retention. Sensitivity experiments to investigate the effects of the additions and the impact of different parameterization choices are presented. Compared with 68 accumulation area ice cores, the simulated mean annual net accumulation bias is -5% (correlation coefficient of 0.90). Modeled SMB in the ablation area compares favorably with 1041 PROMICE observations with regression slope of 0.95-0.97 (depending on model configuration), correlation coefficient of 0.75-0.86 and mean bias -3%. Weighting ablation area SMB biases at low- and high-elevation with the amount of runoff from these areas, we estimate ice sheet-wide mass loss biases in the ablation area at -5% and -7% using observed (MODIS-derived) and internally calculated albedo, respectively. Comparison with observed melt day counts shows that patterns of spatial (correlation ~0.9) and temporal (correlation coefficient of ~0.9) variability are realistically represented in the simulations. However, the model tends to underestimate the magnitude of inter-annual variability (regression slope ~0.7) and overestimate that of spatial variability (slope ~1.2). In terms of subsurface temperature structure and occurrence of perennial firn aquifers and perched ice layers, the most important model choices are the albedo implementation and irreducible water saturation parameterization. At one percolation area location, for instance, the internally calculated albedo yields too high subsurface temperatures below 5 m, but when using an implementation of irreducible saturation allowing higher values, an ice layer forms in 2011, reducing the deep warm bias in subsequent years. On the other hand, prior to the formation of the ice layer, observed albedos combined with lower irreducible saturation give the smallest bias. Perennial firn aquifers and perched ice layers occur in varying thickness and area for different model parameter choices. While the occurrence of these features has an influence on the local-scale subsurface temperature, snow, ice and water fields, the Greenland-wide runoff and SMB are - in the model’s current climate - dominated by the albedo implementation.

Algae Drive Enhanced Darkening of Bare Ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface ablation of the Greenland ice sheet is amplified by surface darkening caused by light-absorbing impurities such as mineral dust, black carbon, and pigmented microbial cells. We present the first quantitative assessment of the microbial contribution to the ice sheet surface darkening, based on field measurements of surface reflectance and concentrations of light-absorbing impurities, including pigmented algae, during the 2014 melt season in the southwestern part of the ice sheet. The impact of algae on bare ice darkening in the study area was greater than that of non-algal impurities and yielded a net albedo reduction of 0.038 ± 0.0035 for each algal population doubling. We argue that algal growth is a crucial control of bare ice darkening, and incorporating the algal darkening effect will improve mass balance and sea level projections of the Greenland ice sheet and ice masses elsewhere.

A new regional high-resolution map of basal and surface topography for the Greenland ice-sheet margin at Paakitsoq, West Greenland

Abstract In 2005 an airborne survey was carried out from a Twin Otter aircraft at Pâkitsup Akuliarusersua (Paakitsoq) near Ilulissat in West Greenland. The survey aimed to measure ice thickness with a 60 MHz coherent radar and surface elevation with a scanning laser altimeter. Positioning information came from multiple on-board differential GPS units and an inertial navigation system. The region surveyed covers >80km along the ice margin and has a total area of ~2700km2 with varying density of measurements: the between-track distance was ~1 km near the margin, increasing to ~3km away from the margin. Regional high-resolution maps of basal topography under the Greenland ice sheet are useful for resolving important glaciological and hydrological questions and for enhancing related process studies, such as the influence of basal meltwater on ice dynamics. The ice-sheet margin in this region is also currently under consideration for hydropower development and has a long and continuing history of glaciological investigations, lately with emphasis on the connection between surface meltwater formation and surface velocity of the ice sheet. Here we present a new regional map of the surface and basal topography of the ice-sheet margin and discuss some of the implications for reported observations at Swiss Camp.

21st-century climate change around Kangerlussuaq, west Greenland: From the ice sheet to the shores of Davis Strait

ABSTRACT Using regional climate-model runs with a horizontal resolution of 5.5 km for two future scenarios and two time slices (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5; 2031–2050 and 2081–2100) relative to a historical period (1991–2010), we study the climate change for the Qeqqata municipality in general and for Kangerlussuaq in particular. The climate-model runs are validated against observations of temperature and surface mass balance and a reanalysis simulation with the same model setup as the scenario runs, providing high confidence in the results. Clear increases in temperature and precipitation for the end of the 21st century are shown, both on and off the ice sheet, with an off–ice sheet mean annual temperature increase of 2.5–3°C for the RCP4.5 scenario and 4.8–6.0°C for the RCP8.5 scenario, and for precipitation an increase of 20–30% for the RCP4.5 scenario and 30–80% for the RCP8.5 scenario. Climate analogs for Kangerlussuaq for temperature and precipitation are provided, indicating that end-of-the-century Kangerlussuaq mean annual temperature is comparable with temperatures for the south of Greenland today. The extent of glacial retreat is also estimated for the Qeqqata municipality, suggesting that most of the ice caps south of the Kangerlussuaq fjord will be gone before the end of this century. Furthermore, the high-resolution runs are compared with an ensemble of six models run at a 50 km resolution, showing the need for high-resolution model simulations over Greenland.

Discussing Progress in Understanding Ice Sheet—Ocean Interactions: Advanced Climate Dynamics Course 2010: Ice Sheet—Ocean Interactions; Lyngen, Norway, 8–19 June 2010

Sea level rise is one of many expected consequences of climate change, with accompanying complex social and economic challenges. Major uncertainties in sea level rise projections relate to the response of ice sheets to sea level rise and the key role that interactions with the ocean may play. Recognizing that probably no comprehensive curriculum currently exists at any single university that covers this novel and interdisciplinary subject, the Advanced Climate Dynamics Courses (ACDC) team brought together a group of 40 international students, postdocs, and lecturers from diverse backgrounds to provide an overview and discussion of state-of-the-art research into ocean–ice sheet interactions and to propose research priorities for the next decade. [...] A course Web site is available at http://www.bccr.no/acdc/

Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)

The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables. (Less)