Ryan Bosworth

Is an Ounce of Prevention Worth a Pound of Cure? Comparing Demand for Public Prevention and Treatment Policies

Background. Public policy can affect the allocation of resources between programs designed to prevent illnesses or injuries and programs designed to treat those who are already sick or injured. Information about preferences for treatment and prevention policies can help policy makers more effectively allocate public health resources among alternative uses. Our objective is to assess preferences for publicly funded health policies designed to prevent or treat major health threats. We use national surveys that employ discrete choice experiment formats. The surveys allow respondents to make trade-offs between policies designed to prevent or treat most major health threats. The surveys were administered to a nationally representative sample of over 3000 respondents. Methods. We estimate a random utility model of preferences for treatment and prevention policies and explore sources of systematic heterogeneity in preferences. Results. We estimate marginal utility associated with avoided deaths to be about twice as high for prevention policies as for treatment policies and find statistically significant heterogeneity with respect to disease type, the group targeted by the policy, and respondent characteristics. Conclusions. Preferences for public health policies vary markedly with policy attributes and with individual characteristics. Benefits measurements for welfare assessments of public health policies should be tailored to the type of health threat and the characteristics of the affected population.

Hypothetical Bias in Choice Experiments: Is Cheap Talk Effective at Eliminating Bias on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Choice?

Abstract We use an experimental approach to evaluate the effectiveness of the most commonly employed bias-mitigation tool in nonmarket valuation surveys: the cheap talk script. Our experimental design allows us to estimate treatment effects on two margins of choice separately: the decision to enter the market at all (the extensive margin) and the choices among alternatives offered (the intensive margin). The key result of this study is to show that a cheap talk script appears to affect both margins in ways distinctly different than when choices involve actual payments. Specifically, participants in hypothetical choice experiments including cheap talk are more inclined to enter the market but are also more price-sensitive as compared to when payments are real. Interestingly, the average influence of cheap talk on market participation and price-sensitiveness could result in total willingness to pay (WTP) estimates that are similar to real payment treatments since the two effects identified act in opposite directions when computing WTP. However, they may do so by inducing behavior that is distinctly different than those of consumers facing real choices. Our results highlight that future reliance on cheap talk as a bias mitigation tool requires extensive testing for empirical regularities to gain any confidence that the tool can be effective, and under what circumstances.

Class size, class composition, and the distribution of student achievement

Using richly detailed data on fourth‐ and fifth‐grade students in the North Carolina public school system, I find evidence that students are assigned to classrooms in a non‐random manner based on observable characteristics for a substantial portion of classrooms. Moreover, I find that this non‐random assignment is statistically related to class size for a number of student characteristics and that failure to control for classroom composition can severely bias traditionally estimated class size effects. Teacher‐fixed effects and classroom composition controls appear to be effective at addressing selection related to classroom composition. I find heterogeneity in class size effects by student characteristics – students who struggle in school appear to benefit more from class size reductions than students in the top of the achievement distribution. I find that smaller classes have smaller achievement gaps on average and that class size reductions may be relatively more effective at closing achievement gaps than raising average achievement; however, class size effects on both average achievement and achievement gaps are small.

Willingness to pay for public health policies to treat illnesses

As the US pursues health care reform, it is important to understand the patterns in demand for, and opposition to, public provision of medical treatments. Using data from a nationally representative survey, we develop and estimate a utility-theoretic choice model to quantify demand for publicly provided medical treatment policies. We find diminishing marginal utility for increased recoveries and avoided premature deaths. We also show how the utility associated with different types of treatment policies varies with the socio-demographic group that would benefit (e.g. men, women, children, and seniors) and the programs duration and scope. Our model further permits utility, and hence willingness to pay, to vary with each respondents own gender, age, race, income, community ethnic fractionalization and immigrant composition, as well as the respondents expected private benefits from the policy and attitude toward government interventions and overall health care funding allocations. Self-interest is a prevailing finding.

Effect of Improving Vehicle Fuel Efficiency on Fuel Tax Revenue and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Vehicle fuel economy improvement has proved to be one of the most effective policies in controlling gasoline demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. However, such improvement also results in the decrease of fuel tax revenue, the main funding source for building and maintaining the U.S. transportation infrastructure. Conversely, fuel efficiency improvement reduces the marginal and average cost of travel, thus encouraging drivers to drive more, and that in turn increases gasoline consumption. The objective of this study was to estimate the potential loss of fuel tax revenue and greenhouse gas emissions, dependents of fuel consumption, that resulted from the fuel efficiency improvement. Accordingly, fuel consumption was modeled as a system of equations consisting of vehicle miles traveled and fuel efficiency (in mpg) as two explanatory variables. The model was estimated by the three-stage least squares method, with annual time-series data for Washington State over the period from 1976 to 2011. According to the results, Washington State will have a

Consumer Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Bundled Fresh Produce Claims at Farmers’ Markets

106 million loss in revenue and an 8.7% reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2031.

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Local Designations: Brand Effects and Heterogeneity at the Retail Level

ABSTRACT This study uses a conditional logit with systematically varying parameters model to analyze consumer survey data collected at farmers’ markets in Utah. The purpose of this study is to examine consumption preferences and willingness to pay for differentiated fresh produce among farmers’ market shoppers in Utah. Three primary differentiating claims, namely conventionally grown of unknown origin, conventionally grown local (in-state), and organically grown of unknown origin, are investigated. Results indicate that consumer preferences and willingness to pay are higher for the conventionally grown local origin claim, emphasizing the importance of local origin labeling for directed marketed fresh produce. This claim was especially preferred among frequent farmers’ market shoppers and those who spend above average. Those who receive WIC and/or food stamp benefits show lower preferences for fresh produce. The shoppers are significantly sensitive to price increases. This study implies that marketing strategies and policy regulations aiming at promoting local, organic, labeling, and reinforcing repeated farmers’ market customers can positively impact purchasing preferences and willingness to pay for production-method-based and origin labeled products.

Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles: Financially Viable Option?

This study examines consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for packaged ice cream with local, private label, and national brands at the retail level. Data were collected through in-person surveys conducted at retail grocery outlets in Utah in 2012. Study results suggest that shoppers are willing to pay significantly more for the national and local brands over the retailer’s private label brand. In fact, the local brand with the state-sponsored designation (Utah’s Own) had a WTP equal to that of the national brand. The use of local designations or labels is important as shoppers were not willing to pay a premium for the local brands in absence of the locally produced or state-sponsored designation label. Additionally, consumer WTP for different brands and the degree of response to local designations varies substantially by consumer attributes. These differences suggest that locally designated products do not compete directly with private label products in the market. This study provides clear evidence of the value of state-sponsored designations, as well as locally produced labeling for food products marketed in a traditional retail setting.

Measuring the value of plastic and reusable grocery bags

Natural gas vehicles are being developed because of increasing concerns about energy dependence, air quality and emissions, and, more recently, climate change. The major advantage of natural gas vehicles is their lower fuel cost. Several economic and technical factors such as limited range and availability of relevant infrastructure prevent widespread adoption of natural gas vehicles. A model for the financial analysis of the possibility of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles being competitive with gasoline-powered vehicles is offered. The model evaluates the extent to which commuters find adoption of CNG vehicles to be economically viable in the United States. The results indicate that the percentage of commuters who would adopt CNG vehicles is small, even if fueling infrastructure were fully developed and CNG vehicles were widely available for purchase. A larger number of vehicle miles traveled and increased gasoline prices encourage commuters to adopt CNG vehicles, while higher fuel economy and purchase price differentials result in lower adoption rates. In some cases, which vary in accordance with the values of the model’s parameters, commuters purchase a CNG vehicle as their second car and keep a gasoline-powered car as their first.

What sort of school sorts students

Using data from an online survey of grocery store customers in Logan, Utah, we estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for continued use of plastic grocery bags, and willingness to accept (WTA) for switching to reusable grocery bags. We find evidence to suggest that, on average, individuals have a greater aversion to plastic-bag taxes than an affinity for reusable-bag subsidies. All else equal, older and lower-to-middle-income individuals, as well as larger-sized households, are more likely to switch to using reusable bags exclusively when faced with a tax on plastic bags. Lower-to-middle-income individuals, as well as women in general, are more likely to switch away from using plastic bags when provided with a subsidy for reusable bags. Our results help quantify the extent to which plastic-bag taxation and reusable-bag subsidisation might induce shoppers to switch from plastic to reusable bags for their grocery trips.