Ryan Wiser

Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections

LBNL-XXXX E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Photovoltaic (PV) Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections David Feldman 1 , Galen Barbose 2 , Robert Margolis 1 , Ryan Wiser 2 , Naim Darghouth 2 , and Alan Goodrich 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory November 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Contract No. DE-AC36- 08GO28308 LBNL’s work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot program under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 Technical Report DOE/GO-102012-3839 • November 2012 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West Parkway Golden, CO 80401 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 1 Cyclotron Road Berkeley, CA 94720 510-486-4000 • www.lbl.gov

Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends. Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections, 2015 Edition

This presentation, based on research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and projected near-term PV pricing trends in the United States focusing on the installed price of PV systems. It also attempts to provide clarity surrounding the wide variety of potentially conflicting data available about PV system prices. This PowerPoint is the third edition from this series.

Tracking the Sun VIII The Installed Price of Residential and Non-Residential Photovoltaic Systems in the United States

Author(s): Barbose, Galen; Darghouth, Naim; Millstein, Dev; Cates, Sarah; DiSanti, Nicholas; Widiss, Rebecca | Abstract: Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report series is dedicated to summarizing trends in the installed price of grid-connected, residential and non-residential systems solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The present report, the ninth edition in the series, focuses on systems installed through year-end 2015, with preliminary data for the first half of 2016. The report provides an overview of both long-term and more-recent trends, highlighting key drivers for installed price declines over different time horizons. The report also extensively characterizes the widespread variability in system pricing, comparing installed prices across states, market segments, installers, and various system and technology characteristics. The trends described in this report derive from project-level data collected by state agencies and utilities that administer PV incentive programs, solar renewable energy credit (SREC) registration systems, or interconnection processes. In total, data for this report were compiled and cleaned for more than 820,000 individual PV systems, though the analysis in the report is based on a subset of that sample, consisting of roughly 450,000 systems with available installed price data. For the first time, the full underlying dataset of project-level data (excluding any confidential information) is available in a public data file, for use by other researchers and analysts.

Mass Market Demand Response and Variable Generation Integration Issues: A Scoping Study

This scoping study focuses on the policy issues inherent in the claims made by some Smart Grid proponents that the demand response potential of mass market customers which is enabled by widespread implementation of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) through the Smart Grid could be the “silver bullet” for mitigating variable generation integration issues. In terms of approach, we will: identify key issues associated with integrating large amounts of variable generation into the bulk power system; identify demand response opportunities made more readily available to mass market customers through widespread deployment of AMI systems and how they can affect the bulk power system; assess the extent to which these mass market Demand Response (DR) opportunities can mitigate Variable Generation (VG) integration issues in the near-term and what electricity market structures and regulatory practices could be changed to further expand the ability for DR to mitigate VG integration issues over the long term; and provide a qualitative comparison of DR and other approaches to mitigate VG integration issues.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Executive Summary

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Financial impacts of net-metered PV on utilities and ratepayers: A scoping study of two prototypical U.S. utilities

Author(s): Satchwell, Andrew; Mills, Andrew; Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter; Darghouth, Naim

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Innovation, renewable energy, and state investment: Case studies of leading clean energy funds

Over the last several years, many U.S. states have established clean energy funds to help support the growth of renewable energy markets. Most often funded by system-benefits charges (SBC), the 15 states that have established such funds are slated to collect nearly

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk

3.5 billion from 1998 to 2012 for renewable energy investments. These clean energy funds are expected to have a sizable impact on the energy future of the states in which the funds are being collected and used. For many of the organizations tapped to administer these funds, however, this is a relatively new role that presents the challenge of using public funds in the most effective and innovative fashion possible. Fortunately, each state is not alone in its efforts; many other U.S. states and a number of countries are undertaking similar efforts. Early lessons are beginning to be learned by clean energy funds about how to effectively target public funds towards creating and building renewable energy markets. A number of innovative programs have already been developed that show significant leadership by U.S. states in supporting renewable energy. It is important that clean energy fund administrators learn from this emerging experience.

Selling Into the Sun: Price Premium Analysis of a Multi-State Dataset of Solar Homes

The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory Mark Bolinger and Ryan Wiser Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory* 1. Introduction 2 2. Renewable Energy Reduces Exposure to Natural Gas Price Risk 4 2.1 Methodology 5 2.2 Empirical Findings of a Premium 6 2.3 Potential Explanations for Empirical Premiums 7 2.3.1 The Forecasts May Be Out of Tune with Market Expectations 8 2.3.2 Hedging May Not Be Costless 9 Net Hedging Pressure in the Natural Gas Market 11 Systematic Risk in Natural Gas Prices 12 2.4 Implications 14 3. Renewable Energy Reduces Natural Gas Prices 15 3.1. A Cursory Review of Economic Theory 16 3.1.1 Natural Gas Supply and Demand Curves 16 3.1.2 Social Benefits, Consumer Benefits, and Wealth Transfers 16 3.2 Review of Previous Studies 17 3.2.1 National Gas Consumption and Price Impacts 18 3.2.2 Induced Natural Gas Price Reductions, in Context 20 3.3 Summary of Implied Inverse Price Elasticities of Supply 22 3.4 Benchmarking Elasticities Against Other Models and Empirical Estimates 23 4. Conclusions 24 References 25 * This work was funded by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Wind & Hydropower Technologies Program and the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Permitting, Siting and Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.