Ryoshin Minami

China’s Turning Point from an East Asian Perspective: Prospective Recapitulation

Part I of this volume evaluated the turning point experiences in China’s neighboring countries of Japan and South Korea. Another fast-growing country outside the East Asian region, Indonesia, was included for added comparison. We then analyzed China’s labor market conditions to determine whether or not China has reached the Lewisian turning point. Other Asian neighbors provided us with useful benchmarks in determining China’s turning point in the context of the dualistic Lewisian model, that is whether its unlimited surplus labor has approached its end. While Japan, Taiwan 1 and South Korea have already passed the Lewisian turning point in 1960, 1967 and 1973 respectively, from a comparative East Asian perspective, there are good reasons to doubt that China has passed the turning point.