S. E. Smirnov

Method for determining the geomagnetic activity index based on wavelet packets

A method for determining quiet daily variations (Sq curve) in automatic mode and calculating the K index of geomagnetic activity based on wavelet packets has been proposed. The method makes it possible to reproduce the Bartels technique and includes the separation of geomagnetic signal informative components, determination of geomagnetic field disturbances, and the formation of quiet daily variations. The method effectiveness was proved experimentally.

Variations in the quasi-static electric field in the near-Earth’s atmosphere during geomagnetic storms in November 2004

The effects of the geomagnetic storms of November 8 and 10, 2004, in variations in the strength and power spectra of the electric field in the near-Earth’s atmosphere in Kamchatka were studied, together with the meteorological and geophysical phenomena observed simultaneously. A sequence of strong solar flares was shown to cause an anomalous increase in air temperature and humidity. This resulted in the excitation of anomalously strong thunderstorm processes in the atmosphere during the storm of November 8 and made it impossible to distinguish the effects associated with cosmic rays on this background. During the storm of November 10, on the background of weak variations in meteorological parameters, an increase in the strength and intensity of power spectra of the electric field on the day before the storm of November 10 was detected; it was followed by an attenuation of these parameters on the date of the storm. These effects were supposed to be associated with the action of cosmic rays on currents of the global electric circuit. It was shown that the influence of the Forbush effect of galactic cosmic rays in the power spectrum of the electric field first of all shows as the amplification of the component with the period T ∼ 48 h; in variations in humidity, the effect shows as the amplification of the component with T ∼ 24 h. Cause-and-effect relationships between variations in the electric field strength and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field were shown to be absent both under the conditions of “fair weather” and during the storm of November 10. A diurnal negative-difference atmospheric pressure was detected on the second day after the geomagnetic storms of November 8 and 10.

Variations in electric and meteorological parameters in the near-Earth’s atmosphere at Kamchatka during the solar events in October 2003

The diurnal variations in the electric conductivity, electric-field strength, and meteorological parameters in the near-Earth’s atmosphere during the solar events in October 21–31, 2003, have been studied. It has been indicated that the conductivity and electric-field strength strongly depend on the air temperature and humidity. It has been found that the conductivity increased for 2 days before the geomagnetic storm on October 29–30 as a result of the effect of solar cosmic rays and decreased during a Forbush decrease in galactic cosmic rays, which was accompanied by a corresponding increase in the electric-field strength. It has been found that the air temperature and humidity anomalously increased in the process of solar activity, which resulted in the formation of different clouds, including thunderclouds accompanied by thunderstorm processes and showers. Simultaneous disturbances of the regular meteorological processes, solar flare series, and emission intensification in the near ultraviolet band, and visible and infrared spectral regions make it possible to consider these processes as a source of additional energy inflow into the lower atmosphere.

Influence of a convective generator on the diurnal behavior of the electric field strength in the near-Earth atmosphere in Kamchatka

Diurnal variations in the electric field strength, electrical conductivity, and temperature in the near-Earth atmosphere under “fair-weather” conditions at the Paratunka observatory (Kamchatka) are considered. It is shown that the morning maximum in the electric field diurnal behavior is caused by air convection in the near-surface layer. The difference in the atmospheric temperatures near the Earth’s surface and at an altitude of 25 m is chosen as a measure of the convective air flow. A high correlation of the values of the temperature difference for these altitudes with the diurnal behavior of the electric field strength is obtained.

Problem of the nature of the sunrise effect in diurnal variations in the electric field in Kamchatka: 1. Time variations in the electric field

The effect of sunrise in time variations in the electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere at the Kamchatka Paratunka observatory has been studied. Twenty-nine records under fair-weather conditions have been selected. It has been indicated that the estimated effect parameters—the times of the effect’s onset and field strength maximum relative to the sunrise time, as well as the ratio of the strength maximum to its value before sunrise and the effect duration—coincide with the previously published data. Thereby, the conclusion is confirmed that the sunrise effect in diurnal variations in the electric field in the near-Earth atmosphere is related to the turbulence and convection processes in the atmospheric boundary layer at a change in atmospheric temperature.

Effects of strong earthquakes in variations of electrical and meteorological parameters of the near-surface atmosphere in Kamchatka region

The diurnal variations in electrical (quasistatic electric field and electrical conductivity) and meteorological (temperature, pressure, relative humidity of the atmosphere, and wind speed) parameters, measured simultaneously before strong earthquakes in Kamchatka region (November 15, 2006, М = 8.3; January 13, 2007, М = 8.1; January 30, 2016, М = 7.2), are studied for the first time in detail. It is found that a successively anomalous increase in temperature, despite the negative regular trend in these winter months, was observed in the period of six–seven days before the occurrences of earthquakes. An anomalous temperature increase led to the formation of “winter thunderstorm” conditions in the near-surface atmosphere of Kamchatka region, which was manifested in the appearance of an anomalous, type 2 electrical signal, the amplification of and intensive variations in electrical conductivity, heavy precipitation (snow showers), high relative humidity of air, storm winds, and pressure changes. With the weak flow of natural heat radiation in this season, the observed dynamics of electric and meteorological processes can likely be explained by the appearance of an additional heat source of seismic nature.

Effects of solar and geomagnetic activities in variations of power spectra of electrical and meteorological parameters in the near-Earth atmosphere in Kamchatka during October 2003 solar events

We perform spectral analysis of records of meteorological (temperature, humidity, pressure of the atmosphere) and electrical (strength of quasi-static electric field and electric conductivity of air) parameters observed simultaneously at the Paratunka observatory during the solar events of October 21–31, 2003. Also, we use simultaneous records of X-ray fluxes of solar radiation, galactic cosmic rays, and the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field. We show that the power spectra of the meteorological parameters under fine weather conditions involve oscillations with a period of thermal tidal waves (T ∼ 12 and 24 h) caused by the influx of thermal radiation of the Sun. During strong solar flares and geomagnetic storm of October 29–31 with a prevailing component of T ∼ 24 h, their spectra involve an additional component of T ∼ 48 h (the period of planetary-scale waves). With the development of solar and geomagnetic activities, the power spectra of atmospheric electric conductivity and electric field stress involve components of both thermal tidal and planetary-scale waves, which vary highly by intensity. In the power spectra of galactic cosmic rays accompanying the strong solar flares, components with T ∼ 48 h were dominant with the appearance of additional (weaker by intensity) components with T ∼ 24 h. The simultaneous amplification of components with T ∼ 48 h in the power spectra of electric conductivity and electric field strength provides evidence of the fact that the lower troposphere is mainly ionized by galactic cosmic rays during strong solar flares and geomagnetic storms. The specified oscillation period with T ∼ 48 h in their spectra, as well as in the spectra of X-ray radiation of the sun, is apparently caused by the dynamics of solar and geomagnetic activities with this time scale.

Nature of the sunrise effect in daily electric field variations at Kamchatka: 2. Electric field frequency variations

The power spectra of time variations in the electric field strength in the near-Earth’s atmosphere and in the geomagnetic field horizontal component, which were simultaneously observed at the Paratunka observatory (φ = 52°58.3′ N; λ = 158°14.9′ E) in September 1999, have been studied. The periods of the day (including sunrise, sunset, and night) have been considered. It has been indicated that oscillations with periods T ∼ 2.0–2.5 h are present in the power spectra of these parameters during the day. The intensity of these oscillations increases noticeably and the oscillations in the band of periods T < 1 h increase simultaneously in the field strength power spectra at sunrise. The variations in the argument of the cross-spectrum of these parameters indicated that oscillations in the 2.0–2.5 h period band are caused by sources that are located above the ionospheric dynamo region; at the same time, oscillations in the 0.5–1 h period band are caused by sources in the lower atmosphere. A possible mechanism by which these oscillations are generated, related to the vortex motion of convective cells that originate at sunrise in the boundary atmospheric layer, is proposed.

“COMPASS 2” Satellite and Ground-Based Experiments

This review is devoted to modern methods of earthquake (EQ) prediction. Section 4.2 contains the first results of special satellite “COMPASS 2” destined for the detection of seism-electromagnetic (EM) effects. A whistler group in the higher-order guided mode was recorded. Probably it was propagating between two layers, caused by onion-like structure of inhomogeneities in the plasma sphere. In Section 4.3, ELF-VLF effects observed over seism-active regions by the satellite “INTERCOSMOS-24” are considered. It was revealed that the D-region conductivity decreases during the earthquake preparation at Kp < 3 and increases during geomagnetic disturbances. The seismic and geomagnetic effects are assumed to be attributable, respectively, to the increase in near-ground atmospheric conductivity caused by radon emanation during fissuring and to the precipitation of high-energy particles from the inner radiation belt. In Section 4.4, results of the earthquake precursor occurrence time analysis in quasi-static electric field of the surface atmosphere on the Kamchatka Peninsula are presented. The propagation velocity of the precursors and their occurrence time are estimated for different geophysical conditions. ULF-effects in magnetic fields as a result of aftershocks are considered. In Section 4.5, relation between precursors in quasistatic electric fields and in ionosphere parameters is analyzed. This relation reflects the processes of lithosphere–ionosphere interaction.

Atmospheric anomalies and anomalies of electricity in the near-surface atmosphere before the Kamchatka earthquake of January 30, 2016, based on the data from the Paratunka Observatory

The 15-min data of vertical ionosphere sounding and 10-min data from measurements of the vertical component (Ez) of the near-surface quasistatic atmospheric electrical field and the respective values of electrical conductance of near-surface air at the Paratunka complex geophysical observatory in the period from January 28 to January 30, 2016 have been analyzed to reveal the possible anomalies preceding the M = 7.2 earthquake that occurred on January 30, 2016, at 0325 UT. The distance between the observatory and epicenter was 117 km. These anomalies have been revealed, and the majority of them, in our opinion, may be related to the processes of earthquake preparation.