S. G. Narkhedkar

On the impact of divergent part of the wind computed from INSAT OLR data on global analysis and forecast fields

SummaryIn this paper, a procedure for the computation of the divergent part of wind from Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data is described. This divergent part is included in the global analysis scheme and its impact is studied by computing the vertical velocity, velocity potential etc., using the analysed fields with and without modifying the divergent part and also making 24 hr and 48 hr rainfall forecasts.Results show that magnitudes of vertical velocity were increased when the divergent part was modified in the wind analysis. There were also changes observed in the analysed wind field over convective regions and the changes over the oceanic regions were higher, suggesting that the impact of divergent part is more pronounced over data sparse regions. Marginal increase was observed in 24 hr and 48 hr rainfall forecast over the Indian region. The area averaged rainfall forecast at each time step in the first 6 hours of model integration was also higher in the case when the wind field contained the divergent part.To sum up, it can be stated that the inclusion of the divergent part from OLR data in the initial wind field has brought out positive impact on the wind analyses and rainfall forecast.

Some experiments with multivariate objective analysis scheme of heights and winds using optimum interpolation

A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976–1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum interpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE analyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.

A Scheme for Objective Analysis of Wind Field Incorporating Multi—Weighting Functions in the Optimum Interpolation Method

A method of objective analysis scheme having three different weighting functions for different conditions of the wind flow has been developed for the Indian region, two of which are anisotropic and third one is isotropic. Basically Gandin’s Optimum Interpolation method is used. The “effective” distance between a grid point and observation point used for the anisotropic functions, has been applied to calculate weighting functions following Benjamin and Seaman (1985) and objective analyses were made at the 700 hPa level for three consecutive days from 6 July to 8 July 1979. The quantitative evaluation of the objectively analysed fields have been made by computing the R.M.S. erros. Analyses obtained using multi-weighting functions (anisotropic) and those obtained using ordinary circular functions (isotropic-Gandin, 1963) have been compared. Also, the centres of the monsoon depressions obtained by this method have been compared with those of subjective analyses.

Unprecedented hailstorms over north peninsular India during February–March 2014

Unprecedented, widespread, and devastating hailstorms occurred during February and March 2014 over north peninsular India (study area). A diagnostic study has been carried out to understand the causes for the same. Over the study area the atmosphere was convectively unstable due to the incursion of warm and moist air from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea which was overlaid by cold and dry midlatitude westerlies caused due to the unusual upper oceanic heat content of the Pacific Ocean. At the surface and lower levels, anticyclonic flow over the central India produced easterly winds and cyclonic circulation over Arabian Sea at 850 hPa level produced westerly winds over the peninsular India. Meeting of these winds caused convergence of moist air in the lower levels. The troughs in the upper level westerlies provided the divergence in the upper levels. As a consequence of this convergence/divergence structure, synoptic-scale slow rising motion occurred over the study region. This released the convective instability to cause deep and wide convection with cloud bases at ~1500 m above mean sea level and tops well above the freezing level. Release of latent heat of deposition of water vapor provided extra buoyancy and produced strong updrafts causing explosive growth of the clouds reaching to very high levels and formation of large hails in the clouds. This atmospheric setup was a result of combined effect of planetary and synoptic forcings which persisted for ~3 weeks.

Proper depiction of monsoon depression through IRS-P4 MSMR

In this paper, daily variations of satellite-derived geophysical parameters such as integrated water vapour (IWV), cloud liquid water content (CLW), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface wind speed (SSW) have been studied for a case of monsoon depression that formed over the Bay of Bengal during 19th-24th August 2000. For this purpose, IRS P4 MSMR satellite data have been utilized over the domain equator — 25‡N and 40‡-100‡E. An integrated approach of satellite data obtained from IRS-P4, METEOSAT-5 and INSAT was made for getting a signal for the development of monsoon depression over the Indian region. Variations in deep convective activity obtained through visible, infrared and OLR data at 06 UTC was thoroughly analyzed for the complete life cycle of monsoon depression. Geophysical parameters obtained through IRS-P4 satellite data were compared with vorticity, convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa levels generated through cloud motion vectors (CMVs) and water vapour wind vectors (WVWVs) obtained from METEOSAT-5 satellite. This comparison was made for finding proper consistency of geophysical parameters with dynamical aspects of major convective activity of the depression.From the results of this study it is revealed that there was strengthening of sea surface winds to the south of low-pressure area prior to the formation of depression. This indicated the possibility of increase in cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere. Hence, wind field at 850 hPa with satellite input of CMVs in objective analysis of wind field using optimum interpolation (OI) scheme was computed. Maximum cyclonic vorticity field at 850 hPa was obtained in the region of depression just one day before its formation. Similarly, with the same procedure maximum anticyclonic vorticity was observed at 200 hPa with WVWVs input. Consistent convergence and divergence at 850 and 200 hPa was noticed with respect to these vorticities. In association with these developments, we could get lowest values of OLR (120 W/m2 ) associated with major convective activity that was consistent with the maximum values of integrated water vapour (6-8gm/cm2) and cloud liquid water content (50-60 mg/cm2 ) persisting particularly in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression.

Multivariate objective analysis of wind and height fields in the tropics

The commonly used objective analysis scheme (Scheme-A) for the analysis of wind and geopotential height smoothen the divergent component of the wind which is rather important in the tropics, specifically over convective regions. To overcome this deficiency, a new analysis scheme in which divergent component is included in the statisti-cal model of the wind forecast errors, has been proposed by Daley (1985). Following this scheme, a new set of correla-tion functions of forecast errors for the Indian region during monsoon season which are suitable for analysing the tropical wind are obtained. This analysis scheme (Scheme-B) as well as Scheme-A were used to make analyses for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979 (12 GMT) at 850, 700 and 200 hPa levels over an area bounded by 1.875°N to 39.375°N and 41.250°E to 108.750°E and subsequently divergent component, velocity potential are computed for both schemes. Results from both these schemes show that in the monsoon depression region the velocity potential and divergence have increased in the later case (Scheme-B). This suggests that the divergent component has been en-hanced in Scheme-B and that the objective of this study is realized to some extent.

Use of Surface Observations to Estimate Upper Air Humidity for the Objective Analysis of Relative Humidity over Indian Region

ABSTRACTIn the present study objective analyses of relative humidity (RH) at surface and at the levels of 850, 700 and 500 hPa have been made using Gandins (1963) optimum interpolation scheme. As the horizontal resolution of the radiosonde stations is rather inadequate for upper air humidity analysis, a scheme has been developed, following Rasmussen (1982) to estimate the upper air RH from the surface observations like surface RH, present weather and cloud cover. The relative humidities at the levels 850, 700 and 500 hPa were related to the surface observations through three separate regression relations. The RH values at 850, 700 and 500 hPa levels were estimated from the surface RH, cloud coverage and present weather using the above regression relations and subsequently the objective analyses at 00 GMT for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, were made using these estimated data along with the observed radiosonde data. Objective analyses were also made for the same period using only the radiosonde data for comparison to study the impact of those estimated data. Root mean square errors wore computed for all the five days by interpolating RH at the observing stations from the objectively analysed field and comparing them with the actually observed RH to examine how best the analyses (with and without estimated data) fitted the observations. Lastly they were compared with satellite cloud pictures. This study shows that the estimated upper air RH values have positive impact on the analysis of upper air RH and could be used over radiosonde data sparse region and even over oceanic regions.

An efficient optimum interpolation scheme for objective analysis over Indian region

In the optimum interpolation scheme, the weights for the observations are computed by solving a set of linear equations for every grid point. As the number of observations increases particularly over data-rich regions, the matrix dimension increases and the computer time required to solve these equations to determine weights increases considerably. In order to reduce the computer time for computing the weights, Tanguay and Robert suggested schemes in which the gaussian function representing the autocorrelation function has been approximated by a second-order and also by a fourth-order Taylor series expansion. This resulted in the solution of matrices of order 4 or 9 respectively to obtain weighting functions irrespective of the number of observations used in the analysis. In the present study, the analyses of mean sea level pressure and geopotential height at 700 mbar level have been carried out for five days using the above two schemes and the regular OI scheme. The analyses are found to be similar in all the three cases suggesting that a lot of computer time could be saved without sacrificing the analysis accuracy by using the modified scheme in which the second-order approximation is utilized.