S. M. Bawiskar

Wave to Wave and Wave to Zonal Mean Flow Kinetic Energy Exchanges During Contrasting Monsoon Years

Fourier analysis of the monthly mean northern hemispheric geopotential heights for the levels 700 mb and 300 mb are undertaken for the months of April through to August. The wave to wave and wave to zonal mean flow kinetic energy interactions are computed for specified latitude bands of the northern hemisphere during the pre-monsoon period (April to May) and monsoon period (June through to August) for bad monsoon years (1972, 1974, 1979) and for years of good monsoon rainfall over India (1967, 1973, 1977). Planetary scale waves (waves 1 to 4) are the major kinetic energy source in the upper atmosphere during the monsoon months. Waves 1 and 2 in particular are a greater source of kinetic energy to other waves via both wave to wave interactions as well as wave to zonal mean flow interactions in good monsoon years than in bad monsoon years. The zonal mean flow shows significantly larger gains in the kinetic energy with a strengthening of zonal westerlies in good monsoon years than in bad monsoon years.

Interaction of monsoon with northern hemisphere mid-latitude circulation

Fourier analysis has been used for the monthly mean northern hemispheric geopotential height for the levels 700 mb and 300 mb for the months April through August in bad monsoon years (1972, 74 and 79) and in years of good monsoon rainfall over India (1967, 73, 77). From the Fourier coefficients the transport of momentum and of sensible heat have been computed in wave number domain.Waves 1 to 3 show contrasting features during years of good monsoon and bad monsoon. Northward transport of momentum across subtropical latitudes is larger in good monsoon years, while northward transport of sensible heat is larger in bad monsoon years. In good monsoon years there is a large divergence of momentum in the subtropics while there is a large convergence of momentum in the mid-latitudes. In bad monsoon years there is a large divergence of sensible heat in the sub-tropics, but a large convergence in the mid-latitudes.These quantities show similar features in pre-monsoon (April to May) during good and bad monsoon years.

Connection between Antarctic sea-ice extent and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Antarctic sea‐ice extent (AnSIE) is an important parameter influencing global climate. The present study is carried out to find whether any connection between the AnSIE and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) exists. Temporal cross‐correlations between the anomalies of the ISMR and AnSIE as a whole and its different sectors are computed for the period 1988 to 2005. A coherent propagating pattern is clearly evident between the AnSIE and ISMR, as well as the rainfall over most of the homogeneous geographical regions of India. Furthermore, this study reveals that the sea‐ice extent (SIE) of the western Pacific Ocean sector in the month of March has a strong association with that of the ISMR in the same year. Year 2002 was a major drought year, which none of the regional or general circulation models could simulate. AnSIE variation has provided a strong signal to imply that 2002 would be a deficit monsoon year.

Harmonic analysis of summer mean wind at 200 mbar level during contrasting monsoon years over India

Summer (June–August) mean zonal and meridional wind components at 200 mbar level are subjected to harmonic analysis for the years 1970, 1971, 1972 and 1979. It is found that the small scale disturbances are intense during normal monsoon years. The westerlies in the belt 10°S to 30°S are stronger during drought years. During normal monsoon years (1970, 1971) the northward transport of westerly momentum by wave number 1 at 19.6°N is large as compared to drought years (1972, 1979). The transport of westerly momentum by standing eddies is northward for all the years between 5°S and 28.7°N but large during the normal monsoon years.

Meridional transport of sensible heat in contrasting monsoon activity: Spherical harmonic analysis

Spherical harmonic analysis is made of the grid point values of geopotential heights at 700 mb and 300 mb levels for the months April to August for the years 1967 and 1972. The year 1967 is a good monsoon year and 1972 is a bad monsoon year in India. Meridional transport of sensible heat is obtained in wave number domain using spherical harmonic coefficients at 500 mb level form=1 to 10 andn−m=0 to 10, wherem represents the wave number round the globe andn−m gives the numbers of zero points from north pole to south pole excluding the poles themselves.Large northward transports of sensible heat in the month of May and in the monsoon months at the subtropics are characteristic of bad monsoon. Wave 1 transports sensible heat southward (forn−m=0) and wave 2 transports sensible heat northward (forn−m=4). Strengthening of wave 1 is conducive to good monsoon year and strengthening of wave 2 is conducive to bad monsoon year. These are the same features obtained in Fourier analysis. The contrasting features exist in waves 1 and 2 both in good and in bad monsoon and are better defined in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis of the earlier study. However, waves 1 and 2 reveal clearer contrast in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis. Bad monsoon activity is associated with large divergence of heart at subtropics and large convergence of heat at extra tropics.

Energetics of lower tropospheric planetary waves over mid latitudes: Precursor for Indian summer monsoon

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, kinetic energy and momentum transport of waves 0 to 10 at 850 hPa level are computed from monthly mean zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind from equator to 90‡N. Fourier technique is used to resolve the wind field into a spectrum of waves. Correlation analysis between All India Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) and energetics of the waves indicates that effective kinetic energy of waves 1, 3 and 4 around 37.5‡N in February has significant correlation (99.9%) with the subsequent AISMR. A simple linear regression equation between the effective kinetic energy of these three waves and AISMR is developed. Out of 47 years’ (1958–2004) data, 32 years (1958–1989) are utilized for developing the regression model and the remaining 15 years (1990–2004) are considered for its verification. Predicted AISMR is in close agreement with observed AISMR. The regression equation based on the dynamics of the planetary waves is thus useful for Long Range Forecasting (LRF) of AISMR. Apart from the regression equation, the study provides qualitative predictors. The scatter diagram between AISMR and effective kinetic energy of waves 1, 3 and 4 around 37.5?N indicates that if the kinetic energy is more (less) than 5m2s-2, the subsequent monsoon will be good (weak). Stream function fields indicate that high latitude trough axis along 40‡E (70‡E) leads to a good (weak) monsoon over India.

Upper and lower tropospheric energetics of standing and transient eddies in wave number domain during summer monsoon of 1991

Kinetic energy exchange equations (Saltzman 1957) in wave number domain are partitioned into standing, transient and standing-transient components following Murakami (1978, 1981). These components are computed for the 1991 summer monsoon using dailyu andv grid point data at 2.5° latitude-longitude interval between the equator and 40°N at 200 hPa and 850 hPa levels for the period June through August. The data are obtained from NCMRWF, New Delhi.The study shows that at 200 hPa wave number 1 over Region 3 (30°N to 40°N), wave number 2 over Region 2 (15°N to 30°N) and wave number 3 over Region 1 (equator to 15°N) dominate the spectrum of transport of momentum and wave to zonal mean flow interaction. Wave number 1 over Region 1 and Region 3 and wave number 2 over Region 2 are the major sources of kinetic energy to other waves via wave-to-wave interaction. At 850 hPa wave number 1 over Region 3 has maximum contribution in the spectrum of transport of momentum and kinetic energy and more than 90% of its contribution is from the standing component. This indicates that standing wave number 1 over Region 3 plays a very important role in the dynamics of monsoon circulation of the lower troposphere.The study further shows that although the circulation patterns at 200 hPa and 850 hPa levels are opposite in character, a number of energy processes exhibit a similar character at these levels. For example, (i) transport of momentum by most of the waves is northward, (ii) small scale eddies intensify northward, (iii) eddies are sources of kinetic energy to zonal mean flow over Region 1 and (iv) standing eddies are sources of kinetic energy to transient eddies. Besides the above similarities some contrasting energy processes are also observed. Over Region 2 and Region 3 standing and transient eddies are sources of kinetic energy to zonal mean flow at 200 hPa, while at 850 hPa the direction of exchange of kinetic energy is opposite i.e. zonal mean flow is a source of kinetic energy to standing as well as transient eddies. L(n) interaction indicates that at 200 hPa waves over R2 maintain waves over R1, while at 850 hPa waves over R1 maintain waves over R2.It has been found that the north-south gradient of zonal mean of zonal wind is the deciding factor of wave to zonal mean flow interaction.

Impact of global warming on the energetics of lower tropospheric ultra-long waves and the Indian summer monsoon

Analyses of 60 years (1949–2008) of monthly energetics of the zonal waves derived from NCEP/NCAR data indicate that ultra-long waves (waves 1 and 2) dominate the spectrum of lower tropospheric zonal waves during monsoon season (June–September). Westerlies over the Indian subcontinent are a source of energy to wave 1. Two oceanic anticyclones, one over Pacific and the other over Atlantic are sources of energy to wave 2. These two waves are inversely correlated. Climatology of the energetics of ultra-long waves for the two epochs 1949–1978 (CLP1) and 1979–2008 (CLP2) of 30 years indicates that the intensity of wave 1 has decreased by about 33% whereas the intensity of wave 2 has increased by about 27%. Northward transport of sensible heat during CLP1 changes to southward during CLP2. Larger generation of zonal mean Available Potential Energy (APE) during CLP2 indicates more heating. A larger conversion of kinetic energy (KE) of wave 1 into APE of wave 1 leads to weakening of wave 1 during CLP2. In case of wave 2, lower rate of conversion of KE to APE leads to stronger wave 2 during CLP2.

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.

Intra-seasonal variations of kinetic energy of lower tropospheric zonal waves during northern summer monsoon

Space spectral analysis of zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind and time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves at 850 hPa during monsoon 1991 (1st June 1991 to 31st August 1991) for the global belt between equator and 40°N are investigated. Space spectral analysis shows that long waves (wavenumbers 1 and 2) dominate the energetics of Region 1 (equator to 20°N) while over Region 2 (20°N to 40°N) the kinetic energy of short waves (wavenumbers 3 to 10) is more than kinetic energy of long waves. It has been found that kinetic energy of long waves is dominated by zonal component while both (zonal and meridional) the components of wind have almost equal contribution in the kinetic energy of short waves.Temporal variations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 2 over Region 1 and Region 2 are almost identical. The correlation matrix of different time series shows that (i) wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 might have the same energy source and (ii) there is a possibility of an exchange of kinetic energy between wavenumber 1 over Region 1 and short waves over Region 2. Wave to wave interactions indicate that short waves over Region 2 are the common source of kinetic energy to wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 and wavenumber 1 over Region 1. Time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves indicates that wavenumber 1 is dominated by 30–45 day and bi-weekly oscillations while short waves are dominated by weekly and bi-weekly oscillations.The correlation matrix, wave to wave interaction and time spectral analysis together suggest that short period oscillations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 1 might be one of the factors causing dominant weekly (5–9 day) and bi-weekly (10–18 day) oscillations in the kinetic energy of short waves.