S. Temmerman

Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level

[1] Assumptions of a static landscape inspire predictions that about half of the world’s coastal wetlands will submerge during this century in response to sea‐level acceleration. In contrast, we use simulations from five numerical models to quantify the conditions under which ecogeomorphic feedbacks allow coastal wetlands to adapt to projected changes in sea level. In contrast to previous sea‐level assessments, we find that non‐linear feedbacks among inundation, plant growth, organic matter accretion, and sediment deposition, allow marshes to survive conservative projections of sea‐ level rise where suspended sediment concentrations are greater than ∼20 mg/L. Under scenarios of more rapid sea‐level rise (e.g., those that include ice sheet melting), marsheswill likelysubmerge neartheend ofthe 21stcentury. Our results emphasize that in areas of rapid geomorphic change, predicting the response of ecosystems to climate change requires consideration of the ability of biological processestomodifytheirphysicalenvironment.Citation: Kirwan, M. L., G. R. Guntenspergen, A. D’Alpaos, J. T. Morris, S. M. Mudd, and S. Temmerman (2010), Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23401,

Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change

The risk of flood disasters is increasing for many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale.

Vegetation causes channel erosion in a tidal landscape

Vegetation is traditionally regarded to reduce the erosion of channels in both fl uvial and tidal landscapes. We present a coupled hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and plant growth model that simulates plant colonization and channel formation on an initially bare, fl at substrate, and apply this model to a tidal landscape. The simulated landscape evolution is compared with aerial photos. Our results show that reduction of erosion by vegetation is only the local, on-site effect operating within static vegetation. Dynamic vegetation patches, which can expand or shrink, have a contrasting larger scale, off-site effect: they obstruct the fl ow, leading to flconcentration and channel erosion between laterally expanding vegetation patches. In contrast with traditional insights, our fi ndings imply that in tidal landscapes, which are colonized by denser vegetation, channels are formed with a higher channel drainage density. Hence this study demonstrates that feedbacks between vegetation, fl ow, and landform have an important control on landscape evolution.

Building land with a rising sea

Cost-efficient nature-based solutions can help to sustain coastal societies [Also see Report by Tessler et al.] Coastal lowlands are increasingly exposed to flood risks from sea-level rise and extreme weather events (1). Megacities like Shanghai, London, New York, and Bangkok that lie in vast river deltas are particularly vulnerable. Dramatic flood disasters include the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005, Hurricane Sandy in New York in 2012, and Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013. Managing the risks of such disasters requires investments in short-term emergency response and long-term flood protection (2), including nature- or ecosystem-based engineering (3, 4). On page 638 of this issue, Tessler et al. (5) show that sealevel rise, increasing climate extremes, population growth, and human-induced sinking of deltas threaten the sustainability of many major deltas around the world.

Self-organization of a biogeomorphic landscape controlled by plant life-history traits

Feedbacks between geomorphology and plants are increasingly recognized as key drivers shaping a variety of landscapes. Most studies of biogeomorphic interactions have focused on the influence of physical plant characteristics, such as stem and root density, on landscape morphodynamics without considering the role of life-history traits. However, pioneer plants can have very different colonization behaviours. Fast colonizers are characterized by a high number of establishing seedlings that produce homogenous vegetation patterns. In contrast, slow colonizers are characterized by a low number of establishing seedlings that are able to expand laterally, resulting in patchy vegetation patterns. Here we combine biogeomorphic model simulations and field observations in the Western Scheldt Estuary, the Netherlands, to show that colonization behaviour can influence the evolution of wetland landscapes. We find that colonization by fast colonizers favours stabilization of pre-existing channels and consolidation of the landscape configuration. In contrast, colonization by slow colonizers facilitates the formation of new channels and thereby actively facilitates further landscape self-organization. Our findings underline the key role of life-history traits in steering landscape self-organization across different biogeomorphic systems, and potentially the long-term resilience of these landscapes to disturbances.Fast-colonizing plants stabilize wetland landscapes, whereas slow-colonizing plants promote channel formation according to biogeomorphic model simulations and field observations.

Contribution of Mangroves and Salt Marshes to Nature-Based Mitigation of Coastal Flood Risks in Major Deltas of the World

Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.