S. van Berkum

Catchments as simple dynamical systems: A case study on methods and data requirements for parameter identification

In many rainfall-runoff models, at least some calibration of model parameters has to take place. Especially for ungauged or poorly gauged basins this can be problematic, because there is little or no data available for calibration. A possible solution to overcome the problems caused by data scarcity is to set up a measurement campaign for a limited time period. In this study, we determine the minimum amount of data required to determine robust parameter values for a simple model with two parameters. The model is constructed such that the parameters can be determined not only with automatic calibration, but also by recession analysis and a priori from Boussinesq theory. The model has been applied to a research catchment in Switzerland. For automatic calibration and recession analysis, one season (5 months) is found to be sufficient to give robust parameters for simulation of high flows over the full observation period. For automatic calibration, this should be the season with the highest precipitation, for recession analysis the season with least evapotranspiration. The Boussinesq equation is able to give good parameter estimates for modeling high flows, but detailed in situ knowledge of the catchment is required. Automatic calibration outperforms recession analysis and Boussinesq theory by far when it comes to parameter estimation with a focus on prediction of low flows. It was shown that a single set of parameters cannot simultaneously describe high and low flows with a reasonable accuracy, suggesting that more than two parameters are needed to characterize subsurface properties.

Sharp bends associated with deep scours in a tropical river: The river Mahakam (East Kalimantan, Indonesia)

Autogenic scouring in sharp river bends has received ample attention in laboratory and modeling studies. These studies have significantly advanced our understanding of how flow processes are influenced by strong curvature and how they affect the bathymetry. Here we present a 300 km reach of the Mahakam River in Indonesia, which features several sharp bends (W/R > 0.5), providing a unique field data set to validate existing knowledge on sharp bends. Scour depths were found to strongly exceed what can be expected based on existing understanding of sharp bends and are highly correlated with curvature. A comprehensive stream reconnaissance was carried out to compare the occurrence of sharp bends and deep scours with lateral bank migration. Histograms of the occurrence of erosive, stable, advancing, and bar-type banks as a function of curvature quantify the switch from a mildly curved bend regime to a sharp bend regime. In mild bends, outer banks erode and inner banks advance. In sharp bends the erosion pattern inverts. Outer banks stabilize or advance, while inner banks erode. In sharply curved river bends, bars occur near the outer banks that become less erosive for higher curvatures. Inner banks become more erosive for higher curvatures but nevertheless accommodate the larger portion of exposed bars. No relation was found between the land cover adjacent to the river and the occurrence of sharp bends. Soil processes may play a crucial role in the formation of sharp bends, which is inferred from iron and manganese concretions observed in the riverbanks, indicating ferric horizons and early stages of the formation of plinthic horizons. Historical topographic maps show the planform activity of the river is low, which may relate to the scour holes slowing down planimetric development.

The Effects of Bioenergy Production on Food Security

The purpose of this paper is to deliver a framework and initial application of a model-based assessment of the food security impacts of changes in bioenergy production and relevant policies on food security. In an economic framework, four pathways are established by which biofuel production potentially affects the dimensions of food security: (1) food availability in connection with the competition for arable land; (2) the contribution of biofuel use of feedstock to food price volatility; (3) biofuel markets as a source of income opportunities for farmers; (4) sector-wide contributions to macroeconomic performance and living standards. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling is proposed as methodology for an encompassing empirical examination of these pathways, although the limitations of the tool and data warrant the use of complementary qualitative and quantitative analyses.