Sabine Herrmann

The Determinants of Cross-Border Bank Flows to Emerging Markets: New Empirical Evidence on the Spread of Financial Crises

This paper studies the nature of spillover effects in bank lending flows from advanced to the emerging market economies and identifies specific channels through which such effects occur. Based on a gravity model we examine a panel data set on cross-border bank flows from 17 advanced to 28 emerging market economies in Asia, Latin America and central and eastern Europe from 1993 to 2008. The empirical analysis suggests that global as well as country specific factors are significant determinants of cross-border bank flows. Greater global risk aversion and expected financial market volatility seem to have been the most important factors behind the decrease in cross-border bank flows during the crisis of 2007-08. The withdraw of cross-border loans from central and eastern Europe was more limited compared to Asia and Latin America, in large measure because of the higher degree of financial and monetary integration in Europe, and relatively sound banking systems in the region. These results are robust to various specification, sub-samples and econometric methodologies.

The Determinants of Cross‐Border Bank Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper studies the determinants of cross‐border bank lending on a panel dataset comprising 17 advanced and 28 emerging market economies from 1993 to 2008. The empirical framework is based on a gravity model of financial flows. Our main findings are that the decrease in cross‐border lending in the 2007–2008 crisis was mostly due to global rather than country‐specific risk factors, and that central and eastern Europe was less affected by this decrease than other emerging market regions because of its stronger financial and monetary ties with creditor countries, and its relatively sound banking systems. These results are fairly robust to several different specifications, sub‐samples and econometric methodologies.

Real and Nominal Convergence in the Central and East European Accession Countries

Following their accession to the EU, which is planned for May 2004, eight central and east European countries will subsequently strive for integration into the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem underlines the need for simultaneous real and nominal convergence as a prerequisite for integration into the euro area. But some of the acceding countries argue that, at least in the short to medium term, a strengthening of nominal convergence makes real economic convergence more difficult. The following paper investigates this issue by means of an empirical study and attempts to establish to what extent real and nominal convergence are compatible.