Sabine Knapp

A global view on port state control: econometric analysis of the differences across port state control regimes

This article is based on 183 819 port state control inspections from various port state control regimes for the time frame 1999 to 2004. Using binary logistic regression, we establish the differences of port state control inspections across several regimes, even though theory predicts there should be no significant differences in treatments of vessels. The results indicate that the differences towards the probability of detention are merely reflected by the differences in port states and the treatment of deficiencies and not necessarily by age, size, flag, class or owner as perceived by the industry and regulators. The analysis further shows that some differences can be found across ship types and regimes and that there appears to be room for further harmonization in the area of port state control.

Estimated incident cost savings in shipping due to inspections

The effectiveness of safety inspections of ships has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper provides a monetary quantification of the cost savings that can be attributed to port state control inspections and industry vetting inspections. The dataset consists of more than half a million ship arrivals between 2002 and 2007 and contains inspections of port state authorities in the USA and Australia and of three industry vetting regimes. The effect of inspections in reducing the risk of total loss accidents is estimated by means of duration models, in terms of the gained probability of survival. The monetary benefit of port state control inspections is estimated to range, on average, from about 70 to 190 thousand dollars, with median values ranging from about 20 to 45 thousand dollars. Industry inspections have even higher benefits, especially for tankers. The savings are in general higher for older and larger vessels, and also for vessels with undefined flag and unknown classification society. As inspection costs are relatively low in comparison to potential cost savings, the results underline the importance of determining ships with relatively high risk of total loss.

Comprehensive Review of the Maritime Safety Regimes: Present Status and Recommendations for Improvements

Abstract This article presents a comprehensive review of the maritime safety regimes and provides recommendations on how to improve the system. The results show a complex legal framework which generates a high amount of inspections and overlapping of inspection areas where no cross‐recognition is established by the various stakeholders. While the safety system seems to be successful in eliminating substandard vessels and while average insurance claims costs are substantially lower for inspected vessels than non‐inspected vessels, the results indicate that the economic conditions of the shipping market also have an effect on safety quality besides the frequency of inspections. No significant differences can be found between industry inspections and port state control inspections with respect to decreasing the probability of casualty. The system could be made more effective by combining data sources on inspections and using them respectively to improve risk profiling and to decrease the frequency of inspections performed on ship types such as tankers. The results further indicate a lack of proper implementation of the International Safety Management Code (ISM code) and conventions with reference to working and living conditions of crew (ILO 147). A revision of the ISM code and more emphasis on enforcement of ILO 147 could further enhance the level of safety at sea. The authors would like to thank several inspection regimes for their cooperation in providing inspection data and in allowing the observation of surveys and inspections on 26 vessels. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge the data providers for the casualty data, Clarksons for the economic data as well as two P&I Clubs in making data on insurance claims available.

Visualization of Differences in Treatment of Safety Inspections across Port State Control Regimes: A Case for Increased Harmonization Efforts

Abstract The topic of harmonizing port state control (PSC) inspections has been on the agenda of the flag state sub‐committee meeting at the International Maritime Organization in recent years. This article is based on a unique combined dataset of 183 819 PSC inspections and uses correspondence analysis to visualize differences in treatment of vessels across several PSC regimes, representing more than 50 individual port states in order to provide better insight into the areas of possible harmonization. The results show that treatment of vessels across the regimes varies, indicating room for harmonization in all inspection areas. We recommend accelerating the harmonization process by putting more emphasis on the harmonization of inspection procedures, combined training of PSC officers and the use of combined datasets across regimes, in particular in the concept of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System of the International Maritime Organization.

Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping

This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction.

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.

Assessing ecological sensitivities of marine assets to oil spills by means of expert knowledge

__Abstract__ Existing methodologies to assess risk due to vessel traffic often do not account for damages to marine assets in case of oil or chemical spills from ships. While some socio-economic damages can be quantified in monetary terms, expert knowledge is often the only way to assess potential damages to the marine ecology. The use of expert knowledge introduces a source of uncertainty. We propose a method which minimizes recognized flaws in subjective assessments by eliciting sensitivity ratings from multiple assessors and recognizing their differences of opinion as a source of uncertainty. We also explore various scoring options to reflect overall expert opinions. We develop and apply the methodology to the Victorian coastline in Australia and believe that improved assessment can assist policy makers of any maritime nation to make better informed decisions.