Sabrina Gentile

Nowcasting Surface Solar Irradiance with AMESIS via Motion Vector Fields of MSG-SEVIRI Data

In this study, we compare different nowcasting techniques based upon the calculation of motion vector fields derived from spectral channels of Meteosat Second Generation—Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (MSG-SEVIRI). The outputs of the nowcasting techniques are used as inputs to the Advanced Model for Estimation of Surface solar Irradiance from Satellite (AMESIS), for predicting surface solar irradiance up to 2 h in advance. In particular, the first part of the methodology consists in projecting the time evolution of each MSG-SEVIRI channel (for every pixel in the spatial domain) through extrapolation of a displacement vector field obtained by matching similar patterns within two successive MSG-SEVIRI data images. Different ways to implement the above method result in substantial differences in the predicted trajectory, leading to different performances depending on the time interval of interest. All the nowcasting techniques considered here systematically outperform the simple persistence method for all MSG-SEVIRI channels and for each case study used in this work; importantly, this occurs across the entire 2 h period of the forecast. In the second part of the algorithm, the predicted irradiance maps computed with AMESIS from the forecasted radiances, are shown to be in good agreement with irradiances derived from MSG measured radiances and improve on numerical weather model predictions, thus providing a feasible alternative for nowcasting surface solar radiation. The results show that the mean values for correlation, bias, and root mean square error vary across the time interval, ranging between 0.94, −1 W/m 2 , 61 W/m 2 after 15 min, and 0.73, −18 W/m 2 , 147 W/m 2 after 2 h, respectively.

Fog Detection Based on Meteosat Second Generation-Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager High Resolution Visible Channel

In this study, the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)—Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) High Resolution Visible channel (HRV) is used in synergy with the narrow band MSG-SEVIRI channels for daytime fog detection. A new algorithm, named MSG-SEVIRI SatFog, has been designed and implemented. MSG-SEVIRI SatFog provides the indication of the presence of fog in near real time and at the high spatial resolution of the HRV channel. The HRV resolution is useful for detecting small scale daytime fog that would be missed in the MSG-SEVIRI low spatial resolution channels. By combining textural, physical and tonal tests, a distinction between fog and low stratus is performed for pixels identified as low/middle clouds or clear by the Classification-MAsk Coupling of Statistical and Physical Methods (C-MACSP) cloud detection algorithm. Suitable thresholds have been determined using a specific dataset covering different geographical areas, seasons and time of the day. MSG-SEVIRI SatFog is evaluated against METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METAR) data observations. Evaluation results in an accuracy of 69.9%, a probability of detection of 68.7%, a false alarm ratio of 31.3% and a probability of false detection of 30.0%.

Investigating Hector Convective Development and Microphysical Structure Using High-Resolution Model Simulations, Ground-Based Radar Data, and TRMM Satellite Data

AbstractOne event of a tropical thunderstorm typically observed in northern Australia, known as Hector, is investigated using high-resolution model output from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) observations from a ground-based weather radar located in Berrimah (Australia) and data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The analysis is carried out by tracking the full life cycle of Hector from prestorm stage to the decaying stage. In both the prestorm stage, characterized by nonprecipitating cells, and the triggering stage, when the Hector storm is effectively initiated, an analysis is performed with the aid of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution MM5 output and the Berrimah ground-based radar imagery. During the mature (“old”) stage of Hector, considering the conceptual model for tropical convection suggested by R. Houze, TRMM Microwave Imager satellite-based data were added to ground-based r...

Improvement in Surface Solar Irradiance Estimation Using HRV/MSG Data

The Advanced Model for the Estimation of Surface Solar Irradiance (AMESIS) was developed at the Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis of the National Research Council of Italy (IMAA-CNR) to derive surface solar irradiance from SEVIRI radiometer on board the MSG geostationary satellite. The operational version of AMESIS has been running continuously at IMAA-CNR over all of Italy since 2017 in support to the monitoring of photovoltaic plants. The AMESIS operative model provides two different estimations of the surface solar irradiance: one is obtained considering only the low-resolution channels (SSI_VIS), while the other also takes into account the high-resolution HRV channel (SSI_HRV). This paper shows the difference between these two products against simultaneous ground-based observations from a network of 63 pyranometers for different sky conditions (clear, overcast and partially cloudy). Comparable statistical scores have been obtained for both AMESIS products in clear and cloud situation. In terms of bias and correlation coefficient over partially cloudy sky, better performances are found for SSI_HRV (0.34 W/m2 and 0.995, respectively) than SSI_VIS (−33.69 W/m2 and 0.862) at the expense of the greater run-time necessary to process HRV data channel.