Saeid Shahraz

The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. METHODS We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBDs cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86-0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38-1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6-32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1-44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45-0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61-1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2-33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9-45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. INTERPRETATION Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of injury: incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Building national estimates of the burden of road traffic injuries in developing countries from all available data sources: Iran.

Objective: To use a range of existing information sources to develop a national snapshot of the burden of road traffic injuries in one developing country—Iran. Methods: The distribution of deaths was estimated by using data from the national death registration system, hospital admissions and outpatient visits from a time-limited hospital registry in 12 of 30 provinces, and injuries that received no institutional care using the 2000 demographic and health survey. Results were extrapolated to national annual incidence of health burden differentiated by age, sex, external cause, nature of injuries and institutional care. Results: In 2005, 30 721 Iranians died annually in road traffic crashes and over one million were injured. The death rate (44 per 100 000) is the highest of any country in the world for which reliable estimates are available. Road traffic injuries are the third leading cause of death in Iran. While young adults are at high risk in non-fatal crashes, the elderly have the highest total death rates, largely due to pedestrian crashes. While car occupants lead the death count, motorised two-wheeler riders dominate hospital admissions, outpatient visits and health burden. Conclusions: Reliable estimates of the burden of road traffic injuries are an essential input for rational priority setting. Most low income countries are unlikely to have national injury surveillance systems for several decades. Thus national estimates of the burden of injuries should be built by collating information from all existing information sources by appropriately correcting for source specific shortcomings.

CTL escape mutations of core protein are more frequent in strains of HBeAg negative patients with low levels of HBV DNA

BACKGROUND Recent studies have suggested that Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) play a key role in eliminating hepatitis B virus (HBV). OBJECTIVES We aimed to investigate the role of mutations in different immune epitopes of hepatitis B core antigen (HBcAg) among Iranians with hepatitis B e antigen negative chronic hepatitis B (e-CHB), and asymptomatic carriers (ASCs). STUDY DESIGN Amino acids 1-150 of HBcAg were characterized for HBV strains from 29 e-CHB patients and 48 ASCs from Iran. All patients were infected with HBV genotype D and had previously been investigated for the presence of pre-core and basic core promoter (BCP) mutants. RESULTS Amino acid mutations of core protein were observed more frequently in HBV strains from ASCs than e-CHB patients (p=0.014). Asn(67) mutation was mutually exclusive to the combination Ile(66) and Ser(69) (P<0.001). Substitutions for Ser(21) and Thr12Ser were associated with lower serum levels of HBV DNA (p<0.001). None of the patients with mutations in HLA-A2 CTL epitope, 18-27, had serum HBV DNA more than 10(5)copies/mL (p<0.001). By multivariate analysis, high level (>10(5)copies/mL) of serum HBV DNA was inversely associated with the presence of mutations in CTL epitopes of HBc (OR: 0.11, p=0.015), while it was directly associated with the presence of promoter double T(1762)A(1764) mutations together with G(1757) (OR: 16.87, p=0.004). CONCLUSION The inverse correlation between serum levels of HBV DNA and CTL escape mutations of the core protein in HBeAg seroconverted patients, supports the notion that selection of CTL escape mutations consolidates the persistence of HBV infection despite reducing viral fitness.

Serum measures of iron status and HFE gene mutations in patients with hepatitis B virus infection

Aim:  We tested associations between HFE mutations and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We also explored measures of total body iron status and their association with chronic HBV infection.

The burden of injuries in Iranian children in 2005

BackgroundChild injury is recognized as a global health problem. Injuries caused the highest burden of disease among the total population of Iran in 2003. We aimed to estimate the morbidity, mortality, and disease burden caused by child injuries in the 0- to 14-year-old population of Iran in 2005.MethodsWe estimated average age- and sex-specific mortality rates for different types of child injuries from 2001 to 2006 using Irans death registration data. Incidence rates for nonfatal outcomes of child injuries in 2005 were estimated through a time- and place-limited sample hospital registry study for injuries. We used the World Health Organizations methods for estimation of years of life lost due to premature mortality and years lived with disability in 2005.ResultsInjuries were the most important cause of death in children ages 1 to 14, with 35, 33.4, 24.9, and 22.9 deaths per 100,000 in the 0-14, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 age groups respectively. Road transport injuries were responsible for the highest death rate per 100,000 population among all types of injuries in children, with 15.5 for ages 0-14, 16.1 for ages 1-4, 16.3 for ages 5-9, and 13.1 for ages 10-14. Incidence rates of injuries leading to hospitalization were 459, 530, and 439 per 100,000 in the 0-14, 1-4, and 5-14 age groups respectively. Incidence rates of injuries leading to outpatient care were 1,812, 2,390, and 1,650 per 100,000 in the same age groups respectively. Among injury types, falls and burns had the highest hospitalization and outpatient care incidence rates.ConclusionsInjuries, particularly road transport injuries, were the most important health problem of children in Iran in 2003 and 2005. Strong social policy is needed to ensure child survival.

Methods for developing country level estimates of the incidence of deaths and non-fatal injuries from road traffic crashes

The estimates of the incidence of deaths and non-fatal injuries from road traffic crashes are essential inputs for prioritising national health and transport policies. This article sketches a methodology for assembling such estimates at the country level by piecing together data from a wide array of sources that include death registers, hospital records, funeral records, health surveys and police reports. Using examples of the types of data sources available in four developing countries (Iran, Mexico, Ghana and India), methods are proposed for making these consistent and extrapolating to estimates of injury incidence at the country level. This requires filling information gaps, mapping from varying case definitions, deriving population-based incidence estimates from sources that may not track denominator populations, and appropriately reapportioning cases assigned to poorly specified causes. The principles proposed here will form the methodological basis for a series of country reports to be published in the future.

Estimating the distribution of external causes in hospital data from injury diagnosis

Hospital discharge datasets are a key source for estimating the incidence of non-fatal injuries. While hospital records usually document injury diagnosis (e.g. traumatic brain injury, femur fracture, etc.) accurately, they often contain poor quality information on external causes (e.g. road traffic crashes, falls, fires, etc.), if such data is recorded at all. However, estimating incidence by external causes is essential for designing effective prevention strategies. Thus, we developed a method for estimating the number of hospital admissions due to each external cause based on injury diagnosis. We start with a prior probability distribution of external causes for each case (based on victim age and sex) and use Bayesian inference to update the probabilities based on the victims injury diagnoses. We validate the method on a trial dataset in which both external causes and injury diagnoses are known and demonstrate application to two problems: redistribution of cases classified to ill-defined external causes in one hospital data system; and, estimation of external causes in another hospital data system that only records nature of injuries. In comparison with age-sex proportional distribution (the method usually employed), we found the Bayesian method to be a significant improvement for generating estimates of incidence for many external causes (e.g. fires, drownings, poisonings). But the method, performed poorly in distinguishing between falls and road traffic injuries, both of which are characterized by similar injury codes in our datasets. While such stop gap methods can help derive additional information, hospitals need to incorporate accurate external cause coding in routine record keeping.

Estimating the incidence of road traffic fatalities and injuries in Sri Lanka using multiple data sources

We used data from multiple sources to estimate the incidence of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in Sri Lanka in 2005. We validated the accuracy of the data from the national traffic police by comparing with estimates based on national death registration. For estimating the incidence and patterns of non-fatal injuries, we used a nationally represented health survey (World Health Survey), and data on hospital admissions from a rural setting (Galle district). We estimate that in the year 2005, approximately 2300 people died in Sri Lanka due to road traffic crashes, approximately 300,000 were injured in non-fatal crashes and approximately 140,000 received care for their injuries at hospitals. While the road traffic death rate in Sri Lanka is low compared with other low-income countries, it has been steadily rising for several years. Although young adults are at high risk in non-fatal crashes, the elderly have the highest death rate. Pedestrians and bicyclists account for more than half of all road traffic deaths and riders of motorised two-wheelers accounted for an additional 13%. The government of Sri Lanka should act immediately to stop the needless loss of life by implementing the recommendations of the 2004 World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention.

Incidence of road injuries in Mexico: country report

We used data from various sources to triangulate to a national snapshot of the incidence of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries in Mexico in 2005. Data sources used include national death registration data, national hospital discharge data and a nationally representative health survey. We estimate that in 2005, 19,389 people died due to injuries and nearly one million were injured in road traffic crashes. While deaths in high-income countries are declining, this is not the case in Mexico. Young adult males are the demographic at the highest risk in non-fatal crashes, but the elderly have the highest road death rates primarily due to pedestrian crashes. Pedestrians alone comprise nearly half (48%) of all deaths. Cars pose a substantial threat to occupants (38% of deaths and 39% of hospital admissions) and to other road users.