Said M. Ali

Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods

BackgroundMonitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability.MethodsWe investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution.ResultsThree automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause.ConclusionsPhysician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.

Clinical and Epidemiological Features of Typhoid Fever in Pemba, Zanzibar: Assessment of the Performance of the WHO Case Definitions

Background The gold standard for diagnosis of typhoid fever is blood culture (BC). Because blood culture is often not available in impoverished settings it would be helpful to have alternative diagnostic approaches. We therefore investigated the usefulness of clinical signs, WHO case definition and Widal test for the diagnosis of typhoid fever. Methodology/Principal Findings Participants with a body temperature ≥37.5°C or a history of fever were enrolled over 17 to 22 months in three hospitals on Pemba Island, Tanzania. Clinical signs and symptoms of participants upon presentation as well as blood and serum for BC and Widal testing were collected. Clinical signs and symptoms of typhoid fever cases were compared to other cases of invasive bacterial diseases and BC negative participants. The relationship of typhoid fever cases with rainfall, temperature, and religious festivals was explored. The performance of the WHO case definitions for suspected and probable typhoid fever and a local cut off titre for the Widal test was assessed. 79 of 2209 participants had invasive bacterial disease. 46 isolates were identified as typhoid fever. Apart from a longer duration of fever prior to admission clinical signs and symptoms were not significantly different among patients with typhoid fever than from other febrile patients. We did not detect any significant seasonal patterns nor correlation with rainfall or festivals. The sensitivity and specificity of the WHO case definition for suspected and probable typhoid fever were 82.6% and 41.3% and 36.3 and 99.7% respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of the Widal test was 47.8% and 99.4 both forfor O-agglutinin and H- agglutinin at a cut-off titre of 1∶80. Conclusions/Significance Typhoid fever prevalence rates on Pemba are high and its clinical signs and symptoms are non-specific. The sensitivity of the Widal test is low and the WHO case definition performed better than the Widal test.

Effectiveness of an oral cholera vaccine in Zanzibar: findings from a mass vaccination campaign and observational cohort study

BACKGROUND Zanzibar, in east Africa, has been severely and repeatedly affected by cholera since 1978. We assessed the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccination in high-risk populations in the archipelago to estimate the indirect (herd) protection conferred by the vaccine and direct vaccine effectiveness. METHODS We offered two doses of a killed whole-cell B-subunit cholera vaccine to individuals aged 2 years and older in six rural and urban sites. To estimate vaccine direct protection, we compared the incidence of cholera between recipients and non-recipients using generalised estimating equations with the log link function while controlling for potential confounding variables. To estimate indirect effects, we used a geographic information systems approach and assessed the association between neighbourhood-level vaccine coverage and the risk for cholera in the non-vaccinated residents of that neighbourhood, after controlling for potential confounding variables. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00709410. FINDINGS Of 48,178 individuals eligible to receive the vaccine, 23,921 (50%) received two doses. Between February, 2009, and May, 2010, there was an outbreak of cholera, enabling us to assess vaccine effectiveness. The vaccine conferred 79% (95% CI 47-92) direct protection against cholera in participants who received two doses. Indirect (herd) protection was shown by a decrease in the risk for cholera of non-vaccinated residents within a households neighbourhood as the vaccine coverage in that neighbourhood increased. INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that the oral cholera vaccine offers both direct and indirect (herd) protection in a sub-Saharan African setting. Mass oral cholera immunisation campaigns have the potential to provide not only protection for vaccinated individuals but also for the unvaccinated members of the community and should be strongly considered for wider use. Because this is an internationally-licensed vaccine, we could not undertake a randomised placebo-controlled trial, but the absence of vaccine effectiveness against non-cholera diarrhoea indicates that the noted protection against cholera could not be explained by bias. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, and the South Korean Government.

Mobile phone microscopy for the diagnosis of soil-transmitted helminth infections: a proof-of-concept study.

We created a mobile phone microscope and assessed its accuracy for the diagnosis of soil-transmitted helminths compared with conventional microscopy. Mobile phone microscopy has a sensitivity of 69.4% for detecting any helminth egg and sensitivities of 81.0%, 54.4%, and 14.3% for the diagnosis of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm respectively.

Oxantel pamoate-albendazole for Trichuris trichiura infection.

BACKGROUND Infections with soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, and Trichuris trichiura) are widespread and often occur concomitantly. These parasitic-worm infections are typically treated with albendazole or mebendazole, but both drugs show low efficacy against T. trichiura. Albendazole is the drug of choice against hookworm. METHODS In this double-blind trial conducted on Pemba Island, Tanzania, we randomly assigned children, 6 to 14 years of age, to receive one of four treatments: oxantel pamoate at a dose of 20 mg per kilogram of body weight, plus 400 mg of albendazole, administered on consecutive days; oxantel pamoate at a single dose of 20 mg per kilogram; albendazole at a single dose of 400 mg; or mebendazole at a single dose of 500 mg. We assessed the efficacy and safety profile of oxantel pamoate-albendazole when used in the treatment of T. trichiura infection (primary outcome) and concomitant soil-transmitted helminth infection (secondary outcome). Efficacy was determined by means of assessment of the cure rate and egg-reduction rate. Adverse events were assessed four times after treatment. RESULTS Complete data were available for 458 children, of whom 450 were infected with T. trichiura, 443 with hookworm, and 293 with A. lumbricoides. The cure rate of T. trichiura infection was significantly higher with oxantel pamoate-albendazole than with mebendazole (31.2% vs. 11.8%, P=0.001), as was the egg-reduction rate (96.0% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 93.5 to 97.6] vs. 75.0% [95% CI, 64.2 to 82.0]). The cure rate with albendazole (2.6%) and the egg-reduction rate with albendazole (45.0%; 95% CI, 32.0 to 56.4) were significantly lower than the rates with mebendazole (P=0.02 for the comparison of cure rates). Oxantel pamoate had low efficacy against hookworm and A. lumbricoides. Adverse events (mainly mild) were reported by 30.9% of all children. CONCLUSIONS Treatment with oxantel pamoate-albendazole resulted in higher cure and egg-reduction rates for T. trichiura infection than the rates with standard therapy. (Funded by the Medicor Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN54577342.).

Evaluation of a Rapid Dipstick (Crystal VC) for the Diagnosis of Cholera in Zanzibar and a Comparison with Previous Studies

BACKGROUND The gold standard for the diagnosis of cholera is stool culture, but this requires laboratory facilities and takes at least 24 hours. A rapid diagnostic test (RDT) that can be used by minimally trained staff at treatment centers could potentially improve the reporting and management of cholera outbreaks. METHODS We evaluated the Crystal VC™ RDT under field conditions in Zanzibar in 2009. Patients presenting to treatment centers with watery diarrhea provided a stool sample for rapid diagnostic testing. Results were compared to stool culture performed in a reference laboratory. We assessed the overall performance of the RDT and evaluated whether previous intake of antibiotics, intravenous fluids, location of testing, and skill level of the technician affected the RDT results. RESULTS We included stool samples from 624 patients. Compared to culture, the overall sensitivity of the RDT was 93.1% (95%CI: 88.7 to 96.2%), specificity was 49.2% (95%CI: 44.3 to 54.1%), the positive predictive value was 47.0% (95%CI: 42.1 to 52.0%) and the negative predictive value was 93.6% (95%CI: 89.6 to 96.5%). The overall false positivity rate was 50.8% (213/419); fieldworkers frequently misread very faint test lines as positive. CONCLUSION The observed sensitivity of the Crystal VC RDT evaluated was similar compared to earlier versions, while specificity was poorer. The current version of the RDT could potentially be used as a screening tool in the field. Because of the high proportion of false positive results when field workers test stool specimens, positive results will need to be confirmed with stool culture.

The Burden of Invasive Bacterial Infections in Pemba, Zanzibar

Background We conducted a surveillance study to determine the leading causes of bloodstream infection in febrile patients seeking treatment at three district hospitals in Pemba Island, Zanzibar, Tanzania, an area with low malaria transmission. Methods All patients above two months of age presenting to hospital with fever were screened, and blood was collected for microbiologic culture and malaria testing. Bacterial sepsis and malaria crude incidence rates were calculated for a one-year period and were adjusted for study participation and diagnostic sensitivity of blood culture. Results Blood culture was performed on 2,209 patients. Among them, 166 (8%) samples yielded bacterial growth; 87 (4%) were considered as likely contaminants; and 79 (4%) as pathogenic bacteria. The most frequent pathogenic bacteria isolated were Salmonella Typhi (n = 46; 58%), followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 12; 15%). The crude bacteremia rate was 6/100,000 but when adjusted for potentially missed cases the rate may be as high as 163/100,000. Crude and adjusted rates for S. Typhi infections and malaria were 4 and 110/100,000 and 4 and 47/100,000, respectively. Twenty three (51%), 22 (49%) and 22 (49%) of the S.Typhi isolates were found to be resistant toward ampicillin, chloramphenicol and cotrimoxazole, respectively. Multidrug resistance (MDR) against the three antimicrobials was detected in 42% of the isolates. Conclusions In the presence of very low malaria incidence we found high rates of S. Typhi and S. pneumoniae infections on Pemba Island, Zanzibar. Preventive measures such as vaccination could reduce the febrile disease burden.

Molecular Characterization of High-Level-Cholera-Toxin-Producing El Tor Variant Vibrio cholerae Strains in the Zanzibar Archipelago of Tanzania

ABSTRACT Analysis of 1,180 diarrheal stool samples in Zanzibar detected 247 Vibrio cholerae O1, Ogawa strains in 2009. Phenotypic traits and PCR-based detection of rstR, rtxC, and tcpA alleles showed that they belonged to the El Tor biotype. Genetic analysis of ctxB of these strains revealed that they were classical type, and production of classical cholera toxin B (CTB) was confirmed by Western blotting. These strains produced more CT than the prototype El Tor and formed a separate cluster by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis.

Paperless registration during survey enumerations and large oral cholera mass vaccination in Zanzibar, the United Republic of Tanzania

PROBLEM Field trials require extensive data preparation and complex logistics. The use of personal digital assistants (PDAs) can bypass many of the traditional steps that are necessary in a paper-based data entry system. APPROACH We programmed, designed and supervised the use of PDAs for a large survey enumeration and mass vaccination campaign. LOCAL SETTING The project was implemented in Zanzibar in the United Republic of Tanzania. Zanzibar is composed of two main islands, Unguja and Pemba, where outbreaks of cholera have been reported since the 1970s. RELEVANT CHANGES PDAs allowed us to digitize information at the initial point of contact with the respondents. Immediate response by the system in case of error helped ensure the quality and reliability of the data. PDAs provided quick data summaries that allowed subsequent research activities to be implemented in a timely fashion. LESSONS LEARNT Portability, immediate recording and linking of information enhanced structure data collection in our study. PDAs could be more useful than paper-based systems for data collection in the field, especially in impoverished settings in developing countries.

Oral cholera vaccine use in Zanzibar: socioeconomic and behavioural features affecting demand and acceptance

BackgroundCholera remains a serious public health problem in low-income countries despite efforts in the past to promote oral rehydration therapy as major treatment. In 2007, the majority of worldwide cases (94%) and deaths (99%) were reported from Africa. To improve cholera control efforts in addition to maintaining and improving existing water supply, sanitation and hygiene behaviour measures, the World Health Organization has recently started to consider the use of vaccines as an additional public health tool. To assess this new approach in endemic settings, a project was launched in Zanzibar to vaccinate 50,000 individuals living in communities at high risk of cholera with an oral two-dose vaccine (Dukoral®).Immunisation programmes in low-income countries have suffered a reduced coverage or were even brought to a halt because of an ignorance of local realities. To ensure the success of vaccination campaigns, implementers have to consider community-held perceptions and behaviours regarding the infectious disease and the vaccine of interest.The main aim of this study is to provide advice to the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Zanzibar regarding routine introduction of an oral cholera vaccine from a socioeconomic and behavioural perspective as part of a long-term development for a sustained cholera prevention strategy.Methods and designQualitative and quantitative methods of health social science research will be applied on four stakeholder levels before and after the mass vaccination campaign. Rapid assessment individual interviews and focus groups will be used to describe cholera- and vaccine-related views of policy makers, health care professionals and community representatives. The cultural epidemiological approach will be employed on the individual household resident level in a repeated cross-sectional design to estimate determinants of anticipated and actual oral cholera vaccine acceptance.DiscussionThe study presented here is designed to inform about peoples perceptions regarding cholera and about socioeconomic and behavioural factors determining anticipated and actual oral cholera vaccine acceptance in Zanzibar. Its pre- and post-intervention design using a mixed-methods approach on different stakeholder levels in communities at high risk of cholera outbreaks will ensure the collection of locally valid data relevant for public health action and planning.