Sailesh Ranjitkar

Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Significance Natural events in temperate ecosystems are triggered by seasonal temperature changes. Climate change may shift the timing of these events. We use a century of herbarium collections of Himalayan rhododendrons to investigate climate-driven change in flowering time. Although increased annual temperatures are associated with earlier flowering, increased fall temperatures are associated with delayed flowering. Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. These contrasting effects have resulted in opposing changes in flowering time, even as temperatures have warmed rapidly in the past 45 y. This study demonstrates the value of natural history collections to inform ecological questions, especially regarding climate change. Responses by flowering plants to climate change are complex and only beginning to be understood. Through analyses of 10,295 herbarium specimens of Himalayan Rhododendron collected by plant hunters and botanists since 1884, we were able to separate these responses into significant components. We found a lack of directional change in mean flowering time over the past 45 y of rapid warming. However, over the full 125 y of collections, mean flowering time shows a significant response to year-to-year changes in temperature, and this response varies with season of warming. Mean flowering advances with annual warming (2.27 d earlier per 1 °C warming), and also is delayed with fall warming (2.54 d later per 1 °C warming). Annual warming may advance flowering through positive effects on overwintering bud formation, whereas fall warming may delay flowering through an impact on chilling requirements. The lack of a directional response suggests that contrasting phenological responses to temperature changes may obscure temperature sensitivity in plants. By drawing on large collections from multiple herbaria, made over more than a century, we show how these data may inform studies even of remote localities, and we highlight the increasing value of these and other natural history collections in understanding long-term change.

Flowering phenology of tree rhododendron along an elevation gradient in two sites in the Eastern Himalayas

Flowering phenology of tree rhododendron (Rhododendron arboreum Sm.) was monitored in situ along elevation gradients in two distinct ecological settings. Observations were carried out in Gaoligong Nature Reserve (GNR) in China and in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) in Nepal. Using the crown density method, flowering events of the selected species were recorded. Flowering duration and synchrony were determined within each site and along the elevation gradient in each study area. Our observations showed high synchrony throughout the elevation gradient, especially for peak flowering. Mean 15-day soil temperature, soil parameters (soil moisture, nitrogen, organic matter and pH), age of the observed trees, and site characteristics (litter cover, canopy cover, inclination) were related to mean initial and peak flowering dates using partial least squares regression (PLS). Results differed between the two sites, but winter temperature was the most important variable affecting the regression model for both initial flowering and peak flowering at both sites. After temperature, soil moisture was the most important variable for explaining initial flowering dates. The distribution of tree rhododendron indicates that it is able to grow in a wide range of habitats with different environmental conditions. The recent trend of rising winter-spring temperature and the detected bloom-advancing effect of high temperatures during this period suggest that tree rhododendron might expand its distributional range in response to global warming.

Pushing the Limits: The Pattern and Dynamics of Rubber Monoculture Expansion in Xishuangbanna, SW China.

The rapidly growing car industry in China has led to an equally rapid expansion of monoculture rubber in many regions of South East Asia. Xishuangbanna, the second largest rubber planting area in China, located in the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot, supplies about 37% of the domestic natural rubber production. There, high income possibilities from rubber drive a dramatic expansion of monoculture plantations which poses a threat to natural forests. For the first time we mapped rubber plantations in and outside protected areas and their net present value for the years 1988, 2002 (Landsat, 30 m resolution) and 2010 (RapidEye, 5 m resolution). The purpose of our study was to better understand the pattern and dynamics of the expansion of rubber plantations in Xishuangbanna, as well as its economic prospects and conservation impacts. We found that 1) the area of rubber plantations was 4.5% of the total area of Xishuangbanna in 1988, 9.9% in 2002, and 22.2% in 2010; 2) rubber monoculture expanded to higher elevations and onto steeper slopes between 1988 and 2010; 3) the proportion of rubber plantations with medium economic potential dropped from 57% between 1988 and 2002 to 47% in 2010, while the proportion of plantations with lower economic potential had increased from 30% to 40%; and 4) nearly 10% of the total area of nature reserves within Xishuangbanna has been converted to rubber monoculture by 2010. On the basis of our findings, we conclude that the rapid expansion of rubber plantations into higher elevations, steeper terrain, and into nature reserves (where most of the remaining forests of Xishuangbanna are located) poses a serious threat to biodiversity and environmental services while not producing the expected economic returns. Therefore, it is essential that local governments develop long-term land use strategies for balancing economic benefits with environmental sustainability, as well as for assisting farmers with the selection of land suitable for rubber production.

Climate modelling for agroforestry species selection in Yunnan Province, China

Changing climate is likely to impact on both tree species and agroforestry systems in a variety of ways. A multi-model ensemble approach based on ecological niche modelling was used to understand the impact of climate on distribution of agroforestry trees in Yunnan Province of China. Future changes in distribution of 10 agroforestry tree species were projected using an ensemble of climate projections derived from the results of 19 Earth System Models provided by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5. Our model explained suitable habitat, and identified potential locations for mixed agroforestry using selected species. The model suggested west and southwest Yunnan as important location for tea and alder-based agroforestry, while southern parts of Yunnan are better suited for tea and hog plum, and northern parts could support walnut-based agroforestry options. Agroforestry is an important adaptation option for climate change, which could benefiting farmers and enhancing environmental conservation and restoration of the landscape. Display Omitted The ensemble model shows where we are most certain that the species is suitable.The tuning procedure with weighted AUC chose a specific number of best models for ensemble.Based on sensitivity analysis of spatially nested predictions where all sub-models agree that the species is suitable.A multi-model ensemble approach identified suitable habitat for agroforestry tree species.Mixed agroforestry choices for future climate recommended using consensus map outputs.

Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal

The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.

Farmers' Perceptions of and Adaptations to Changing Climate in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal

Knowledge of farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change is important to inform policies addressing the risk of climate change to farmers. This case study explored those issues in the Melamchi Valley of Nepal through a survey of 365 households and focus group discussions in 6 communities using a Community-Based Risk Screening Tool–Adaptation and Livelihoods (CRiSTAL). Analysis of climate trends in the study area for 1979–2009 showed that mean annual temperatures rose by 1.02°C and the frequency of drought increased measurably after 2003. Farmers reported increases in crop pests, hailstorms, landslides, floods, thunderstorms, and erratic precipitation as climate-related hazards affecting agriculture. They responded in a variety of ways including changing farming practices, selling livestock, milk, and eggs, and engaging in daily wage labor and seasonal labor migration. With more efficient support and planning, some of these measures could be adjusted to better meet current and future risks from climate change.

Insights into the Genetic Relationships and Breeding Patterns of the African Tea Germplasm Based on nSSR Markers and cpDNA Sequences

Africa is one of the key centers of global tea production. Understanding the genetic diversity and relationships of cultivars of African tea is important for future targeted breeding efforts for new crop cultivars, specialty tea processing, and to guide germplasm conservation efforts. Despite the economic importance of tea in Africa, no research work has been done so far on its genetic diversity at a continental scale. Twenty-three nSSRs and three plastid DNA regions were used to investigate the genetic diversity, relationships, and breeding patterns of tea accessions collected from eight countries of Africa. A total of 280 African tea accessions generated 297 alleles with a mean of 12.91 alleles per locus and a genetic diversity (HS) estimate of 0.652. A STRUCTURE analysis suggested two main genetic groups of African tea accessions which corresponded well with the two tea types Camellia sinensis var. sinensis and C. sinensis var. assamica, respectively, as well as an admixed “mosaic” group whose individuals were defined as hybrids of F2 and BC generation with a high proportion of C. sinensis var. assamica being maternal parents. Accessions known to be C. sinensis var. assamica further separated into two groups representing the two major tea breeding centers corresponding to southern Africa (Tea Research Foundation of Central Africa, TRFCA), and East Africa (Tea Research Foundation of Kenya, TRFK). Tea accessions were shared among countries. African tea has relatively lower genetic diversity. C. sinensis var. assamica is the main tea type under cultivation and contributes more in tea breeding improvements in Africa. International germplasm exchange and movement among countries within Africa was confirmed. The clustering into two main breeding centers, TRFCA, and TRFK, suggested that some traits of C. sinensis var. assamica and their associated genes possibly underwent selection during geographic differentiation or local breeding preferences. This study represents the first step toward effective utilization of differently inherited molecular markers for exploring the breeding status of African tea. The findings here will be important for planning the exploration, utilization, and conservation of tea germplasm for future breeding efforts in Africa.

Indications for Three Independent Domestication Events for the Tea Plant (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze) and New Insights into the Origin of Tea Germplasm in China and India Revealed by Nuclear Microsatellites

Background Tea is the world’s most popular non-alcoholic beverage. China and India are known to be the largest tea producing countries and recognized as the centers for the domestication of the tea plant (Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze). However, molecular studies on the origin, domestication and relationships of the main teas, China type, Assam type and Cambod type are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings Twenty-three nuclear microsatellite markers were used to investigate the genetic diversity, relatedness, and domestication history of cultivated tea in both China and India. Based on a total of 392 samples, high levels of genetic diversity were observed for all tea types in both countries. The cultivars clustered into three distinct genetic groups (i.e. China tea, Chinese Assam tea and Indian Assam tea) based on STRUCTURE, PCoA and UPGMA analyses with significant pairwise genetic differentiation, corresponding well with their geographical distribution. A high proportion (30%) of the studied tea samples were shown to possess genetic admixtures of different tea types suggesting a hybrid origin for these samples, including the Cambod type. Conclusions We demonstrate that Chinese Assam tea is a distinct genetic lineage from Indian Assam tea, and that China tea sampled from India was likely introduced from China directly. Our results further indicate that China type tea, Chinese Assam type tea and Indian Assam type tea are likely the result of three independent domestication events from three separate regions across China and India. Our findings have important implications for the conservation of genetic stocks, as well as future breeding programs.

Selection of Native Tree Species for Subtropical Forest Restoration in Southwest China

The use of native species in forest restoration has been increasingly recognized as an effective means of restoring ecosystem functions and biodiversity to degraded areas across the world. However, successful selection of species adapted to local conditions requires specific knowledge which is often lacking, especially in developing countries. In order to scale up forest restoration, experimental data on the responses of native species to propagation and restoration treatments across a range of local conditions are required. In this study, the restoration potential of 34 native tree species was evaluated based on nursery research and field planting experiments at a highly degraded site in a subtropical area of southwest China. We examined species performance in terms of germination rates as well as survival rates and growth over 2 years after planting. Of the 34 species examined, 25 had a germination percentage greater than 50%. Survivorship ranged from 0 to 97% across species and was greater than 50% for 20 species. Mean monthly growth increments varied between species. Pioneer species performed well, and 14 mid- and late-successional species performed reasonably well to very well in this study. However, the remaining 16 mid- and late-successional species performed poorly. These results indicate that carefully selected mid- and late-successional species can be effectively incorporated into mixed species plantings. This data can be used to inform restoration planning, helping to identify suitable species and so enhance the biodiversity and resilience of restored forests.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Himalayan medicinal plants of Liliaceae in Nepal

Predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plants in response to climate change is essential for their conservation and management. Contributing to the management program, this study aimed to predict the distribution of two threatened medicinal plants, Fritillaria cirrhosa and Lilium nepalense. The location of focal species gathered from herbarium specimen housed in different herbaria and online databases were geo-referenced and checked for spatial autocorrelation. The predictive environmental variables were selected, and MaxEnt software was used to model the current and future distributions of focal species. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories of the BCC-CSM1.1 model were used as the future (2050) projection layer. The MaxEnt modelling delineated the potential distribution of F. cirrhosa and L. nepalense. The current suitability is projected towards Central and Eastern Hilly/Mountainous regions. Both species gain maximum suitability in RCP 4.5 which decline towards other trajectories for L. nepalense. Overall, both the focal species shift towards the north-west, losing their potential habitat in hilly and lower mountainous regions by 2050 across all trajectories. Our results highlight the impact of future climate change on two threatened and valuable species. The results can be further useful to initiate farming of these medicinally and economically important species based on climatically suitable zone and for designing a germplasm conservation strategy.