Sally Stapley

The mortality of colorectal cancer in relation to the initial symptom at presentation to primary care and to the duration of symptoms: a cohort study using medical records.

The association between the staging of colorectal cancer and mortality is well known. Much less researched is the relationship between the duration of symptoms and outcome, and whether particular initial symptoms carry a different prognosis. We performed a cohort study of 349 patients with primary colorectal cancer in whom all their prediagnostic symptoms and investigation results were known. Survival data for 3–8 years after diagnosis were taken from the cancer registry. Six features were studied: rectal bleeding, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, constipation, weight loss, and anaemia. Two of these were significantly associated with different staging and mortality. Rectal bleeding as an initial symptom was associated with less advanced staging (odds ratio from one Dukes stage to the next 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.31, 0.79; P=0.003) and with reduced mortality (Coxs proportional hazard ratio (HR) 0.56 (0.41, 0.79); P=0.001. Mild anaemia, with a haemoglobin of 10.0–12.9 g dl−1, was associated with more advanced staging (odds ratio 2.2 (1.2, 4.3); P=0.021) and worse mortality (HR 1.5 (0.98, 2.3): P=0.064). When corrected for emergency admission, sex, and the site of the tumour, the HR for mild anaemia was 1.7 (1.1, 2.6); P=0.015. No relationship was found between the duration of symptoms and staging or mortality.

Comparison of cancer diagnostic intervals before and after implementation of NICE guidelines : analysis of data from the UK General Practice Research Database.

Background:The primary aim was to use routine data to compare cancer diagnostic intervals before and after implementation of the 2005 NICE Referral Guidelines for Suspected Cancer. The secondary aim was to compare change in diagnostic intervals across different categories of presenting symptoms.Methods:Using data from the General Practice Research Database, we analysed patients with one of 15 cancers diagnosed in either 2001–2002 or 2007–2008. Putative symptom lists for each cancer were classified into whether or not they qualified for urgent referral under NICE guidelines. Diagnostic interval (duration from first presented symptom to date of diagnosis in primary care records) was compared between the two cohorts.Results:In total, 37 588 patients had a new diagnosis of cancer and of these 20 535 (54.6%) had a recorded symptom in the year prior to diagnosis and were included in the analysis. The overall mean diagnostic interval fell by 5.4 days (95% CI: 2.4–8.5; P<0.001) between 2001–2002 and 2007–2008. There was evidence of significant reductions for the following cancers: (mean, 95% confidence interval) kidney (20.4 days, −0.5 to 41.5; P=0.05), head and neck (21.2 days, 0.2–41.6; P=0.04), bladder (16.4 days, 6.6–26.5; P⩽0.001), colorectal (9.0 days, 3.2–14.8; P=0.002), oesophageal (13.1 days, 3.0–24.1; P=0.006) and pancreatic (12.6 days, 0.2–24.6; P=0.04). Patients who presented with NICE-qualifying symptoms had shorter diagnostic intervals than those who did not (all cancers in both cohorts). For the 2007–2008 cohort, the cancers with the shortest median diagnostic intervals were breast (26 days) and testicular (44 days); the highest were myeloma (156 days) and lung (112 days). The values for the 90th centiles of the distributions remain very high for some cancers. Tests of interaction provided little evidence of differences in change in mean diagnostic intervals between those who did and did not present with symptoms specifically cited in the NICE Guideline as requiring urgent referral.Conclusion:We suggest that the implementation of the 2005 NICE Guidelines may have contributed to this reduction in diagnostic intervals between 2001–2002 and 2007–2008. There remains considerable scope to achieve more timely cancer diagnosis, with the ultimate aim of improving cancer outcomes.

The risk of pancreatic cancer in symptomatic patients in primary care: a large case–control study using electronic records

Background:Over 8000 new pancreatic cancers are diagnosed annually in the UK; most at an advanced stage, with only 3% 5-year survival. We aimed to identify and quantify the risk of pancreatic cancer for features in primary care.Methods:A case–control study using electronic primary care records identified and quantified the features of pancreatic cancer. Cases, aged ⩾40 in the General Practice Research Database, UK, with primary pancreatic cancer were matched with controls on age, sex and practice. Putative features of pancreatic cancer were identified in the year before diagnosis. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated for features of cancer using conditional logistic regression. Positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for consulting patients.Results:In all, 3635 cases and 16 459 controls were studied. Nine features were associated with pancreatic cancer (all P<0.001 except for back pain, P=0.004); jaundice, OR 1000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4 302 500); abdominal pain, 5 (4.4, 5.6); nausea/vomiting, 4.5 (3.5, 5.7); back pain, 1.4 (1.1, 1.7); constipation, 2.2 (1.7, 2.8); diarrhoea, 1.9 (1.5, 2.5); weight loss, 15 (11, 22); malaise, 2.4 (1.6, 3.5); new-onset diabetes 2.1 (1.7, 2.5). Positive predictive values for patients aged ⩾60 were <1%, apart from jaundice at 22% (95% CI 14, 52), though several pairs of symptoms had PPVs >1%.Conclusion:Most previously reported symptoms of pancreatic cancer were also relevant in primary care. Although predictive values were small – apart from jaundice – they provide a basis for selection of patients for investigation, especially with multiple symptoms.

Clinical features of bladder cancer in primary care

BACKGROUND Bladder cancer accounts for over 150,000 deaths worldwide. No screening is available, so diagnosis depends on investigations of symptoms. Of these, only visible haematuria has been studied in primary care. AIM To identify and quantify the features of bladder cancer in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING Case-control study, using electronic medical records from UK primary care. METHOD Participants were 4915 patients aged ≥40 years, diagnosed with bladder cancer January 2000 to December 2009, and 21,718 age, sex, and practice-matched controls, were selected from the General Practice Research Database, UK. All clinical features independently associated with bladder cancer using conditional logistic regression were identified, and their positive predictive values for bladder cancer, singly and in combination, were estimated. RESULTS Cases consulted their GP more frequently than controls before diagnosis: median 15 consultations (interquartile range 9-22) versus 8 (4-15): P<0.001. Seven features were independently associated with bladder cancer: visible haematuria, odds ratio 34 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 29 to 41), dysuria 4.1 (95% CI = 3.4 to 5.0), urinary tract infection 2.2 (95% CI = 2.0 to 2.5), raised white blood cell count 2.1 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.8), abdominal pain 2.0 (95% CI = 1.6 to 2.4), constipation 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), raised inflammatory markers 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.9), and raised creatinine 1.3 (95% CI = 1.2 to 1.4). The positive predictive value for visible haematuria in patients aged ≥60 years was PPV of 2.6% (95% CI = 2.2 to 3.2). CONCLUSION Visible haematuria is the commonest and most powerful predictor of bladder cancer in primary care, and warrants investigation. Most other previously reported features of bladder cancer were associated with the disease, but with low predictive values. There is a need for improved diagnostic methods, for those patients whose bladder cancer presents without visible haematuria.

The risk of oesophago-gastric cancer in symptomatic patients in primary care

Background:Over 15 000 new oesophago-gastric cancers are diagnosed annually in the United Kingdom, with most being advanced disease. We identified and quantified features of this cancer in primary care.Methods:Case–control study using electronic primary-care records of the UK patients aged ⩾40 years was performed. Cases with primary oesophago-gastric cancer were matched to controls on age, sex and practice. Putative features of cancer were identified in the year before diagnosis. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for these features using conditional logistic regression, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated.Results:A total of 7471 cases and 32 877 controls were studied. Sixteen features were independently associated with oesophago-gastric cancer (all P<0.001): dysphagia, OR 139 (95% confidence interval 112–173); reflux, 5.7 (4.8–6.8); abdominal pain, 2.6 (2.3–3.0); epigastric pain, 8.8 (7.0–11.0); dyspepsia, 6 (5.1–7.1); nausea and/or vomiting, 4.9 (4.0–6.0); constipation, 1.5 (1.2–1.7); chest pain, 1.6 (1.4–1.9); weight loss, 8.9 (7.1–11.2); thrombocytosis, 2.4 (2.0–2.9); low haemoglobin, 2.4 (2.1–2.7); low MCV, 5.2 (4.2–6.4); high inflammatory markers, 1.7 (1.4–2.0); raised hepatic enzymes, 1.3 (1.2–1.5); high white cell count, 1.4 (1.2–1.7); and high cholesterol, 0.8 (0.7–0.8). The only PPV >5% in patients ⩾55 years was for dysphagia. In patients <55 years, all PPVs were <1%.Conclusion:Symptoms of oesophago-gastric cancer reported in secondary care were also important in primary care. The results should inform guidance and commissioning policy for upper GI endoscopy.

The use of electronic databases in primary care research

DISCOVERY Research Group, Peninsula College of Medicine & Dentistry, Veysey Building, Salmon Pool Lane, Exeter, EX2 4SG, UK and Doctoral student, School of Social & Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Canynge Hall, 39 Whatley Road, Bristol, BS8 2PS, UK. *Correspondence to W Hamilton Peninsula College of Medicine & Dentistry, Veysey Building, Salmon Pool Lane, Exeter, EX2 4SG, UK; E-mail: willie.hamilton@pcmd.ac.uk Received 31 May 2011; Accepted 6 June 2011.

What happens to new onset headache presented to primary care? A case-cohort study using electronic primary care records

In the UK, 4± of general practitioner consultations are for headache, yet the natural history of these presentations is unknown. The objective of this study was to describe the outcome of new headache presentations to the general practitioner. This was a prospective case-control study in adults over a period of 1 year using data from the General Practitioner Research Database, UK. Records of patients who presented with primary headache (migraine, tension-type headache, cluster headache) or undifferentiated headache (no further descriptor) were examined for the subsequent year for subarachnoid haemorrhage, primary brain tumour, benign space-occupying lesion, temporal arteritis, stroke and transient ischaemic attack. We identified 21 758 primary headaches and 63 921 undifferentiated headaches. The likelihood ratio was 29 (9.9, 92) for a subarachnoid haemorrhage after an undifferentiated headache and increased with age. The 1-year risk of a malignant brain tumour with new undifferentiated headache was 0.15±, rising to 0.28± above the age of 50 years. For primary headache the risk was 0.045±. The risk for a benign space-occupying lesion was 0.05± for an undifferentiated and 0.009± for a primary headache. The risk of temporal arteritis was the highest of the conditions studied, 0.66± in the undifferentiated and 0.18± in the primary headache group. Accepting the limitations of this approach, our data can inform management guidelines for new presentations of headache in primary care and confirm the need for follow-up, even if a primary headache diagnosis is made.

Pathways to the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in the UK: a cohort study in primary care

Please cite this paper as: Barrett J, Sharp D, Stapley S, Stabb C, Hamilton W. Pathways to the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in the UK: a cohort study in primary care. BJOG 2010;117:610–614.

Gynaecological symptoms reported by young women: examining the potential for earlier diagnosis of cervical cancer

BACKGROUND Cervical cancer occurs at a younger age than most adult cancers. A pre-malignant stage can be identified at screening and treated. Screening begins at the age of 25 years in England, so in women younger than this, and in those who decline screening, cervical cancer can only be identified with symptoms. Aim. To identify the frequency of attendance for gynaecological conditions by young English women. DESIGN Historical cohort study using electronic primary care records. METHODS A cohort of English women aged 15-29 years was prepared from the General Practice Research Database. All gynaecological consultations were identified and collated. Frequencies of gynaecological consultation were analysed in three age bands: 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 years and by calendar year. RESULTS The number of women available for study for each year ranged from 32 968 to 45 807. The percentage of women having any gynaecological consultation increased from 17.7% to 33.3% over the 7 years. If contraception is excluded, the percentages are 11.3% in 2003, rising to 20.1% in 2009. The rise in consultations occurred in all age bands and across most symptom categories. Post-coital bleeding and inter-menstrual bleeding-the two classic presentations of cervical cancer-were reported by 0.5% and 1.6% of women in 2009. CONCLUSIONS Gynaecological complaints are frequent in primary care, though the symptoms of possible cervical cancer only represent a small minority of the total. Although the chance of cancer in young women with abnormal vaginal bleeding is very small, visualization of the cervix is appropriate.

Jaundice in primary care: a cohort study of adults aged >45 years using electronic medical records

BACKGROUND Jaundice is a rare but important symptom of malignant and benign conditions. When patients present in primary care, understanding the relative likelihood of different disease processes can help GPs to investigate and refer patients appropriately. OBJECTIVE To identify and quantify the various causes of jaundice in adults presenting in primary care. DESIGN Historical cohort study using electronic primary care records. SETTING UK General Practice Research Database. METHODS Participants (186 814 men and women) aged >45 years with clinical events recorded in primary care records between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2007. Data were searched for episodes of jaundice and explanatory diagnoses identified within the subsequent 12 months. If no diagnosis was found, the patients preceding medical record was searched for relevant chronic diseases. RESULTS From the full cohort, 277 patients had at least one record of jaundice between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2006. Ninety-two (33%) were found to have bile duct stones; 74 (27%) had an explanatory cancer [pancreatic cancer 34 (12%), cholangiocarcinoma 13 (5%) and other diagnosed primary malignancy 27 (10%)]. Liver disease attributed to excess alcohol explained 26 (9%) and other diagnoses were identified in 24 (9%). Sixty-one (22%) had no diagnosis related to jaundice recorded. CONCLUSION Although the most common cause of jaundice is bile duct stones, cancers are present in over a quarter of patients with jaundice in this study, demonstrating the importance of urgent investigation into the underlying cause.