Salvatore Calabrese

On the probabilistic structure of water age

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions: AGE, SURVIVAL, AND TRANSIT TIME

Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results.

Age distribution dynamics with stochastic jumps in mortality

While deterministic age distribution models have been extensively studied and applied in various disciplines, little work has been devoted to understanding the role of stochasticity in birth and mortality terms. In this paper, we analyse a stochastic M’Kendrick–von Foerster equation in which jumps in mortality represent intense losses of population due to external events. We present explicit solutions for the probability density functions of the age distribution and the total population and for the temporal dynamics of their moments. We also derive the dynamics of the mean age of the population and its harmonic mean. The framework is then used to calculate the age distribution of salt in the soil root zone, where the accumulation of salt by atmospheric deposition is counteracted by plant uptake and by jump losses due to percolation events.

Hydrologic Transport of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon and Its Control on Chemical Weathering

Chemical weathering is one of the major processes interacting with climate and tectonics to form clays, supply nutrients to soil micro-organisms and plants, and sequester atmospheric CO2. Hydrology and dissolution kinetics have been emphasized as factors controlling chemical weathering rates. However, the interaction between hydrology and transport of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in controlling weathering has received less attention. In this paper, we present an analytical model that couples subsurface water and chemical molar balance equations to analyze the roles of hydrology and DIC-transport on chemical weathering. The balance equations form a dynamical system that fully determines the dynamics of the weathering zone chemistry as forced by the transport of DIC. The model is formulated specifically for the silicate mineral albite, but it can be extended to other minerals, and is studied as a function of percolation rate and water transit time. Three weathering regimes are elucidated. For very small or large values of transit time, the weathering is limited by reaction kinetics or transport, respectively. For intermediate values, the system is transport-controlled and is sensitive to transit time. We apply the model to a series of watersheds for which we estimate transit times and identify the type of weathering regime. The results suggest that hydrologic transport of DIC may be as important as reaction kinetics and dilution in determining chemical weathering rates.