Salvatore Vitale

The first two years of electromagnetic follow-up with advanced LIGO and Virgo

We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgos first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events, the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ~500 deg^2 in 2015 to ~200 deg^2 in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.

Parameter estimation for compact binaries with ground-based gravitational-wave observations using the LALInference software library

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star, a neutron star–black hole binary and a binary black hole, where we show a cross comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analyzed with nonspinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analyzing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence parameter space.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR BINARY NEUTRON-STAR COALESCENCES WITH REALISTIC NOISE DURING THE ADVANCED LIGO ERA

Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than 10^(-3) M_☉. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is ~ 600 deg^2 (~150 deg^2), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within 100 deg^2. Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

Demonstrating the feasibility of probing the neutron-star equation of state with second-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Fisher matrix and related studies have suggested that, with second-generation gravitational-wave detectors, it may be possible to infer the equation of state of neutron stars using tidal effects in a binary inspiral. Here, we present the first fully Bayesian investigation of this problem. We simulate a realistic data analysis setting by performing a series of numerical experiments of binary neutron-star signals hidden in detector noise, assuming the projected final design sensitivity of the Advanced LIGO-Virgo network. With an astrophysical distribution of events (in particular, uniform in comoving volume), we find that only a few tens of detections will be required to arrive at strong constraints, even for some of the softest equations of state in the literature. Thus, direct gravitational-wave detection will provide a unique probe of neutron-star structure.

Going the Distance: Mapping Host Galaxies of LIGO and Virgo Sources in Three Dimensions Using Local Cosmography and Targeted Follow-up

The Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) discovered gravitational waves (GWs) from a binary black hole merger in 2015 September and may soon observe signals from neutron star mergers. There is considerable interest in searching for their faint and rapidly fading electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, though GW position uncertainties are as coarse as hundreds of square degrees. Because LIGOs sensitivity to binary neutron stars is limited to the local universe, the area on the sky that must be searched could be reduced by weighting positions by mass, luminosity, or star formation in nearby galaxies. Since GW observations provide information about luminosity distance, combining the reconstructed volume with positions and redshifts of galaxies could reduce the area even more dramatically. A key missing ingredient has been a rapid GW parameter estimation algorithm that reconstructs the full distribution of sky location and distance. We demonstrate the first such algorithm, which takes under a minute, fast enough to enable immediate EM follow-up. By combining the three-dimensional posterior with a galaxy catalog, we can reduce the number of galaxies that could conceivably host the event by a factor of 1.4, the total exposure time for the Swift X-ray Telescope by a factor of 2, the total exposure time for a synoptic optical survey by a factor of 2, and the total exposure time for a narrow-field optical telescope by a factor of 3. This encourages us to suggest a new role for small field of view optical instruments in performing targeted searches of the most massive galaxies within the reconstructed volumes.

LOCALIZATION OF SHORT DURATION GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE TRANSIENTS WITH THE EARLY ADVANCED LIGO AND VIRGO DETECTORS

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo advanced ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will begin collecting science data in 2015. With first detections expected to follow, it is important to quantify how well generic gravitational-wave transients can be localized on the sky. This is crucial for correctly identifying electromagnetic counterparts as well as understanding gravitational-wave physics and source populations. We present a study of sky localization capabilities for two search and parameter estimation algorithms: coherent WaveBurst, a constrained likelihood algorithm operating in close to real-time, and LALInferenceBurst, a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation algorithm developed to recover generic transient signals with latency of a few hours. Furthermore, we focus on the first few years of the advanced detector era, when we expect to only have two (2015) and later three (2016) operational detectors, all below design sensitivity. These detector configurations can produce significantly different sky localizations, which we quantify in detail. We observe a clear improvement in localization of the average detected signal when progressing from two-detector to three-detector networks, as expected. Although localization depends on the waveform morphology, approximately 50% of detected signals would be imaged after observing 100-200 deg2 in 2015 and 60-110 deg2 in 2016, although knowledge of the waveform can reduce this to as little as 22?deg2. This is the first comprehensive study on sky localization capabilities for generic transients of the early network of advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors, including the early LIGO-only two-detector configuration.

Prospects for doubling the range of Advanced LIGO

In the coming years, the gravitational wave community will be optimizing detector performance for a variety of astrophysical sources that make competing demands on the detector sensitivity in different frequency bands. In this paper we describe a number of technologies that are being developed as anticipated upgrades to the Advanced LIGO detector, and quantify the potential sensitivity improvement they offer. Specifically, we consider squeezed light injection for reduction of quantum noise, detector design and materials changes which reduce thermal noise, and mirrors with significantly increased mass. We explore how each of these technologies impacts the detection of the most promising gravitational wave sources, and suggest an effective progression of upgrades which culminate in a factor of two broadband sensitivity improvement.

An information-theoretic approach to the gravitational-wave burst detection problem

The observational era of gravitational-wave astronomy began in the Fall of 2015 with the detection of GW150914. One potential type of detectable gravitational wave is short-duration gravitational-wave bursts, whose waveforms can be difficult to predict. We present the framework for a new detection algorithm for such burst events -- textit{oLIB} -- that can be used in low-latency to identify gravitational-wave transients independently of other search algorithms. This algorithm consists of 1) an excess-power event generator based on the Q-transform -- textit{Omicron} --, 2) coincidence of these events across a detector network, and 3) an analysis of the coincident events using a Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian evidence calculator -- textit{LALInferenceBurst}. These steps compress the full data streams into a set of Bayes factors for each event; through this process, we use elements from information theory to minimize the amount of information regarding the signal-versus-noise hypothesis that is lost. We optimally extract this information using a likelihood-ratio test to estimate a detection significance for each event. Using representative archival LIGO data, we show that the algorithm can detect gravitational-wave burst events of astrophysical strength in realistic instrumental noise across different burst waveform morphologies. We also demonstrate that the combination of Bayes factors by means of a likelihood-ratio test can improve the detection efficiency of a gravitational-wave burst search. Finally, we show that oLIBs performance is robust against the choice of gravitational-wave populations used to model the likelihood-ratio test likelihoods.

TIGER: A data analysis pipeline for testing the strong-field dynamics of general relativity with gravitational wave signals from coalescing compact binaries

The direct detection of gravitational waves with upcoming second-generation gravitational wave observatories such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will allow us to probe the genuinely strong-field dynamics of general relativity (GR) for the first time. We have developed a data analysis pipeline called TIGER (test infrastructure for general relativity), which uses signals from compact binary coalescences to perform a model-independent test of GR. In this paper we focus on signals from coalescing binary neutron stars, for which sufficiently accurate waveform models are already available which can be generated fast enough on a computer that they can be used in Bayesian inference. By performing numerical experiments in stationary, Gaussian noise, we show that for such systems, TIGER is robust against a number of unmodeled fundamental, astrophysical, and instrumental effects, such as differences between waveform approximants, a limited number of post-Newtonian phase contributions being known, the effects of neutron star tidal deformability on the orbital motion, neutron star spins, and instrumental calibration errors.

Measuring the Spin of Black Holes in Binary Systems Using Gravitational Waves

Compact binary coalescences are the most promising sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for ground-based detectors. Binary systems containing one or two spinning black holes are particularly interesting due to spin-orbit (and eventual spin-spin) interactions and the opportunity of measuring spins directly through GW observations. In this Letter, we analyze simulated signals emitted by spinning binaries with several values of masses, spins, orientations, and signal-to-noise ratios, as detected by an advanced LIGO-Virgo network. We find that for moderate or high signal-to-noise ratio the spin magnitudes can be estimated with errors of a few percent (5%-30%) for neutron star-black hole (black hole-black hole) systems. Spins tilt angle can be estimated with errors of 0.04xa0rad in the best cases, but typical values will be above 0.1xa0rad. Errors will be larger for signals barely above the threshold for detection. The difference in the azimuth angles of the spins, which may be used to check if spins are locked into resonant configurations, cannot be constrained. We observe that the best performances are obtained when the line of sight is perpendicular to the systems total angular momentum and that a sudden change of behavior occurs when a system is observed from angles such that the plane of the orbit can be seen both from above and below during the time the signal is in band. This study suggests that direct measurement of black hole spin by means of GWs can be as precise as what can be obtained from x-ray binaries.