Sam Droege

ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY RATES WHEN DETECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN ONE

Nondetection of a species at a site does not imply that the species is absent unless the probability of detection is 1. We propose a model and likelihood-based method for estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are 0.3). We estimated site occupancy rates for two anuran species at 32 wetland sites in Maryland, USA, from data collected during 2000 as part of an amphibian monitoring program, Frogwatch USA. Site occupancy rates were estimated as 0.49 for American toads (Bufo americanus), a 44% increase over the proportion of sites at which they were actually observed, and as 0.85 for spring peepers (Pseudacris crucifer), slightly above the observed proportion of 0.83.

Tidal Marshes: A Global Perspective on the Evolution and Conservation of Their Terrestrial Vertebrates

Abstract Globally, tidal marshes are found in small pockets or narrow bands totaling only approximately 45,000 square kilometers. The combination of salinity, low floristic and structural complexity, and regular tidal inundation, as well as unpredictable catastrophic flooding, provides a unique selective environment that shapes local adaptations, including those that are morphological, physiological, demographic, and behavioral. Although tidal marshes support a low diversity of nonaquatic vertebrate species, a high proportion of these inhabitants, at least along North American coastlines, are restricted to or have subspecies restricted to tidal marshes. Tidal marshes and their endemic fauna face broad threats from a variety of human-caused environmental changes. Future research should focus on global inventories, intercontinental comparative work, and investigation to determine why almost all presently described endemic taxa appear to be found in North America.

Spatial patterns of bee captures in North American bowl trapping surveys

Abstract.  1. Bowl and pan traps are now commonly used to capture bees (Hymenoptera: Apiformes) for research and surveys.

Detecting Insect Pollinator Declines on Regional and Global Scales

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >

Density estimation in wildlife surveys

200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200-250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2-5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.

Evaluation of terrestrial and streamside salamander monitoring techniques at Shenandoah National Park

2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

Adaptations to tidal marshes in breeding populations of the swamp sparrow

Abstract Several authors have recently discussed the problems with using index methods to estimate trends in population size. Some have expressed the view that index methods should virtually never be used. Others have responded by defending index methods and questioning whether better alternatives exist. We suggest that index methods are often a cost-effective component of valid wildlife monitoring but that double-sampling or another procedure that corrects for bias or establishes bounds on bias is essential. The common assertion that index methods require constant detection rates for trend estimation is mathematically incorrect; the requirement is no long-term trend in detection “ratios“ (index result/parameter of interest), a requirement that is probably approximately met by many well-designed index surveys. We urge that more attention be given to defining bird density rigorously and in ways useful to managers. Once this is done, 4 sources of bias in density estimates may be distinguished: coverage, closure, surplus birds, and detection rates. Distance, double-observer, and removal methods do not reduce bias due to coverage, closure, or surplus birds. These methods may yield unbiased estimates of the number of birds present at the time of the survey, but only if their required assumptions are met, which we doubt occurs very often in practice. Double-sampling, in contrast, produces unbiased density estimates if the plots are randomly selected and estimates on the intensive surveys are unbiased. More work is needed, however, to determine the feasibility of double-sampling in different populations and habitats. We believe the tension that has developed over appropriate survey methods can best be resolved through increased appreciation of the mathematical aspects of indices, especially the effects of bias, and through studies in which candidate methods are evaluated against known numbers determined through intensive surveys.

A citywide breeding bird survey for Washington, D.C.

In response to concerns about amphibian declines, a study evaluating and validating amphibian monitoring techniques was initiated in Shenandoah and Big Bend National Parks in the spring of 1998. We evaluate precision, bias, and efficiency of several sampling methods for terrestrial and streamside salamanders in Shenandoah National Park and assess salamander abundance in relation to environmental variables, notably soil and water pH. Terrestrial salamanders, primarily redback salamanders (Plethodon cinereus), were sampled by searching under cover objects during the day in square plots (10 to 35 m2). We compared population indices (mean daily and total counts) with adjusted population estimates from capture-recapture. Analyses suggested that the proportion of salamanders detected (p) during sampling varied among plots, necessitating the use of adjusted population estimates. However, adjusted population estimates were less precise than population indices, and may not be efficient in relating salamander populations to environmental variables. In future sampling, strategic use of capture-recapture to verify consistency of ps among sites may be a reasonable compromise between the possibility of bias in estimation of population size and deficiencies due to inefficiency associated with the estimation of p. The streamside two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata) was surveyed using four methods: leaf litter refugia bags, 1 m2 quadrats, 50 × 1 m visual encounter transects, and electric shocking. Comparison of survey methods at nine streams revealed congruent patterns of abundance among sites, suggesting that relative bias among the methods is similar, and that choice of survey method should be based on precision and logistical efficiency. Redback and two-lined salamander abundance were not significantly related to soil or water pH, respectively.

An evaluation of population index and estimation techniques for tadpoles in desert pools

The Coastal Plain Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana nigrescens) was originally described from a small number of specimens from the tidal marshes of the Nanticoke River in southeastern Maryland. Based on our quantitative analysis of a larger series of specimens, we found that Swamp Sparrows collected during the breeding season from the Chesapeake and Delaware bays (and tributaries) and near the mouth of the Hudson River are generally less rusty, have more black in the crown and nape, and have larger bills than other Swamp Sparrows. Contrary to earlier accounts, we found M. g. nigrescens to be migratory, arriving after the spring migration and departing before the fall migration of the inland subspecies through the tidal marshes. The location of the wintering grounds of M. g. nigrescens is unknown. We argue that the morphological and life history differences characterizing M. g. nigrescens reflect adaptation to tidal marshes. We base this hypothesis on the nature of the morphological differences, which are convergent with other tidal marsh breeding sparrows and other terrestrial vertebrates.

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

‘DC Birdscape’ was initiated in 1993 to systematically count the birds occurring throughout Washington, D.C. during the breeding season. It involved a coordinated planning effort and partnership between the Audubon Naturalist Society, the National Park Service, and the National Biological Survey, and engaged the participation of more than 100 volunteers. A method for rapidly assessing the status of bird populations over a large area was developed and incorporated into a Geographic Information System to allow a multidimensional analysis of species presence and abundance across a variety of urban land use areas. A total of 91 species were observed, with an estimated total number of 115, making Washington, D.C. almost as ‘bird rich’ as nearby suburban counties. Data from the study clearly indicate that avian species are not randomly distributed throughout the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, and show affinity, at least in part, to some of the most broadly recognized land use patterns that are commonly used to zone and classify urban areas under development schemes. This study represents a prototype that will allow efficient and economical monitoring of urban bird populations.