Sam Jones

Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?

The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro- and meso-levels, recent literature doubts the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth and development. This paper assesses the aid-growth literature and, taking inspiration from the program evaluation literature, we re-examine key hypotheses. In our findings, aid has a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run, with confidence intervals conforming to levels suggested by growth theory. Aid remains a key tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor countries.

Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?

The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro and meso-levels, recent literature has turned decidedly pessimistic with respect to the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth. Policy implications, such as the complete cessation of aid to Africa, are being drawn on the basis of fragile evidence. This paper first assesses the aid-growth literature with a focus on recent contributions. The aid-growth literature is then framed, for the first time, in terms of the Rubin Causal Model, applied at the macroeconomic level. Our results show that aid has a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run with point estimates at levels suggested by growth theory. We conclude that aid remains an important tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor nations.

Developing Agricultural Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa: Organic Cocoa in Rural Uganda

Abstract This article investigates the process of development in a traditional African export market, focusing on a contract farming scheme for organic cocoa in rural Uganda. Based on a repeated household survey, we measure the impact of the scheme on the income of participants and the economic mechanisms behind these effects. We find substantial benefits from the scheme, driven primarily by the establishment of credible incentives for farmers to adopt technologies which improve cocoa quality. There is also evidence of broader trends of market deepening and increased productivity, probably due to positive spillovers.

The economic contribution of tourism in Mozambique: Insights from a Social Accounting Matrix

How much tourism contributes to the economies of developing countries is controversial and often not measured rigorously. Focusing on Mozambique, this study presents a simple accounting tool – a tourist-focused Social Accounting Matrix – which makes it possible to estimate the economic contribution of various tourism sub-types. Multiplier analysis is applied to evaluate the strength of backward linkages from tourism to the domestic economy. The results show the sector is moderate in size but has the potential to contribute significantly to aggregate economic development. However, potential weaknesses are already evident and careful attention must be paid to the full tourism value chain.

What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid

In recent years, academic studies have been converging towards the view that foreign aid promotes aggregate economic growth. We employ a simulation approach to: (i) validate the coherence of empirical aid-growth studies published since 2008; and (ii) calculate plausible ranges for the rate of return to aid. Our results highlight the long run nature of aid-financed investments and the importance of channels other than accumulation of physical capital. We find the return to aid lies in ranges commonly accepted for public investments and there is little to justify the view that aid has had a significant pernicious effect on productivity.

An Analysis of Organic Contract Farming Schemes in East Africa

As noted in a number of chapters in this volume, recent years have seen a substantial increase in African smallholder production to ‘sustainability’ standards. This reflects the dynamic growth of Northern markets for products certified to these standards and, in turn, the premium prices that this generates. All of the production concerned appears to be organized through a contemporary variant of contract farming. Like earlier African variants, this is donor-supported. But contracting for sustainability attributes is generally by private corporations rather than by government or public—private agencies and contracts are ‘market based’, in the sense that they tend to focus mainly on price and quality requirements rather than input supply, production calendars and so on.

Does family background matter for learning in East Africa

ABSTRACT The extent to which differences in family background characteristics explain differences in learning outcomes between children captures the extent of equality in educational opportunities. This study uses large-scale data on literacy and numeracy outcomes for children of school age across East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) to investigate the contribution of family background to learning differences. We find that learning differences between children from less-advantaged households and those from more-advantaged households equals around one year or more of effective learning on average. Even so, family background does not fully explain why children of school starting age display large differences in learning between countries.

Identifying Catch-Up Trajectories in Child Growth: New Methods with Evidence from Young Lives

Definitions of catch-up growth in anthropometric outcomes among young children vary across studies. This paper distinguishes between catch-up in the mean of a group toward that of a healthy reference population versus catch-up within the group, associated with a narrowing of the outcome distribution. In contrast to conventional empirical approaches based on dynamic panel models, the paper shows how catch-up can be tested via a latent growth framework. Combined with a flexible estimator incorporating individual-specific intercepts and slopes, this enables between- and within-group forms of catch-up to be tested in a unified setting. The application of the proposed approach reveals significant differences in the nature, extent, and drivers of catch-up growth across the four Young Lives countries (Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam). In addition, the paper shows how conclusions about catch-up are sensitive to the way in which anthropometric outcomes are expressed.

HMGB1/IL-1β complexes in plasma microvesicles modulate immune responses to burn injury

Modulating immune responses to sepsis and trauma remain one of the most difficult challenges in modern medicine. Large burn injuries (LBI) are a severe form of trauma associated with sepsis, immune impairment, and mortality. Immune dysfunction after LBI is complex, involving both enhanced and impaired immune activation. The release of Damage-Associated Molecular Patterns (DAMPs), such as HMGB1, and cytokines (e.g. IL-1β) creates an environment of immune dysfunction often leading to end organ failure and death. Both HMGB1 and IL-1β have been found to play critical roles in sepsis and post-burn immune dysfunction. HMGB1 and IL-1β have been shown previously to form potent complexes in vitro. We recently identified the presence of HMGB1/IL-1β heterocomplexes in human tissue. We now find HMGB1/IL-1β complexes in human and mouse plasma, and identify a synergistic role of HMGB1/IL-1β complexes in post-burn immune dysfunction. In both humans and mice, we found that HMGB1 was enriched in plasma microvesicles (MVs) after LBI. HMGB1 was found form complexes with IL-1β. Using flow cytometry of mouse plasma MVs, we identified an increase in an HMGB1+/IL-1β+ MVs. Using co-IP, HMGB1 was found to bind the pro-form of IL-1β in mouse and human plasma. Pro-IL-1β, which is traditionally considered inactive, became active when complexed with HMGB1. Human THP-1 monocytes treated with HMGB1-pro-IL-1β complexes showed increased transcription of LBI associated cytokines IL-6 and IFNβ along with suppression of iNOS, mimicking findings associated with LBI. These findings identify that HMGB1/IL-1β complexes released after burn injuries can modulate immune responses, and microvesicles are identified as a novel reservoir for these immune mediators. These complexes might serve as novel immune targets for the treatment of systemic immune responses due to LBI or other causes of sepsis.

Early life malaria exposure and academic performance

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a dynamic contributor to poverty through its effects on children’s cognitive development. This paper examines the degree to which malaria in early childhood impacts on educational achievement in later childhood. The substantial decline in malaria in the region over recent years allows an assessment of its impact to be made. Focusing on Tanzania, we combine data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the 2010–2014 Uwezo household surveys (N = 246,325). We relate the district-level risk of malaria in a child’s year of birth to his/her performance in tests of acquired cognitive skills (literacy and numeracy). For causal identification, we rely on differences across districts in the pace of decline in malaria prevalence occurring over the last 15 years. We control for time-invariant district level, age, birth cohort and survey year effects, as well as district-level trends and individual and household-specific factors. In addition, we use sibling variation in birth-year exposure to malaria to strengthen our identification. A ten percentage-point decrease in malaria prevalence in birth year is associated with a 0.06 standard deviation (p = 0.000) increase in English literacy achievement. This estimate is comparable in magnitude to education intervention programs with very large effects. Our results are robust to a large number of sensitivity analyses. We find no statistically significant effects of birth-year malaria exposure on attainments in numeracy and Kiswahili, and we argue that this is probably attributable to strong ceiling effects in these test scores. We conclude that in Tanzania malaria is an important factor in geographical variation in English literacy. This indicates that malaria is a significant public health challenge to educational achievement in this country, and probably in other regions with malaria.