Sam Mirmirani

A COMPARISON OF VAR AND NEURAL NETWORKS WITH GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE OF OIL

This study applies VAR and ANN techniques to make ex-post forecast of U.S. oil price movements. The VAR-based forecast uses three endogenous variables: lagged oil price, lagged oil supply and lagged energy consumption. However, the VAR model suggests that the impacts of oil supply and energy consumption has limited impacts on oil price movement. The forecast of the genetic algorithm-based ANN model is made by using oil supply, energy consumption, and money supply (M1). Root mean squared error and mean absolute error have been used as the evaluation criteria. Our analysis suggests that the BPN-GA model noticeably outperforms the VAR model.

Gold Price, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm

Economic theory has failed to provide sufficient explanation of the dynamicpath of price movement over time. Therefore, the use of any linear ornon-linear functional form to model the gold price movement is bound to bearbitrary in nature. Neural Networks equipped with genetic algorithm have theadvantage of simulating the non-linear models when little a priori knowledgeof the structure of problem domains exist. Studies suggest that such a systemprovides better predictions when compared with traditional econometric models.The NeuroGenetic Optimizer software is applied to the NYMEX database of dailygold cash price covering 12/31/1974–12/31/1998 period. Among differentmethods, back-propagation neural networks with genetic algorithms is used topredict gold price movement. The results indicate that prices in the past, upto 36 days, strongly affect the gold prices of the future. This confirms thefact that there is short-term time dependence in gold price movements.

Confucius Institutes: Distributed Leadership and Knowledge Sharing in a Worldwide Network.

– The purpose of this paper is to focus on Confucius Institutes and assess the applicability of theories of leadership and knowledge sharing to multinational organizations and worldwide networks. Growth of multinational trade and decrease in international tension have facilitated the globalization of both profit‐seeking and non‐profit organizations. Changes in economic and political environment have also blurred the divide in management practices between these organizations., – The research applies recent theoretical developments to analyze leadership and knowledge sharing of the highly successful Confucius Institutes. Operational similarities and differences between this global learning organization and multinational businesses are evaluated., – Many similarities exist between the operations of the Confucius Institutes and multinational businesses. For both, strategic goals are achieved through the promotion of global expansion and the management practices of distributed leadership and knowledge sharing. The study makes clear the successful application of distributed leadership to a worldwide network. The Confucius Institutes reflect the cultural and social changes in China, combined with influences of global cultures. Findings suggest that distributed leadership is a suitable management style for coping with variant cultural and socio‐political conditions globally. This leadership style, combined with a knowledge‐sharing network, is also suitable for the situational variables encountered in making thousands of decisions across hundreds of global locations by both learning institutions and business organizations., – The paper explores a relatively new area of the similarities and differences between global non‐profit and business networks as learning organizations. The study is of value to both those managing and those studying such organizations.

Hospital Care inflation in the United States: prices adjustments in a disequilibrium econometric framework

Uncontrollable medical care expenditure inflation in excess of general price inflation in the United States has prompted the writing of this paper. It is argued that such a frustrating phenomenon is due to the existence of disequilibrium in the hospital market. This phenomenon can be verified only by modelling the market by disequilibrium methods. In this paper, a model of price adjustment in non-clearing market is presented and tested by using autoregressive techniques. It is found that excess demand for hospital care has been the source of disequilibrium for a large part of the period of the study, 1965–1984. It is observed then the key factor causing excess demand is low out-of-pocket expenditure for hospital care by patients due to third-party payments. Had the co-insurance rate been adjusted upward or co-payment patient rate not fallen, excess demand would have been eliminated. This study also finds that the response of providers and regulators to cost inflation through price control policy seems to ...

Continuous quality improvement in health maintenance organizations: an application of the HEDIS model.

One aspect of the Clinton Healthcare Reform programme is to assist health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in collecting and analysing data for the purpose of continuous quality improvement. The HEDIS 2.0 quality performance measurement model is currently in use and endorsed by the National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA). Outlines a process using HEDIS 2.0 by which an HMO can identify crucial problem areas and track the success of the solution process. Discusses the use of other relevant statistical tools.

Health care system collapse in the united states: Capitalist market failure!

SummaryWhen compared with other industrialized free-market economies, the United States has the highest per capita health expenditure, yet, Americans are the least satisfied with their health care system. This industry has been confronted with serious problems resulting in a departure from the ‘Pareto efficient’ conditions. There are many circumstances under which this departure may occur, one such cause is ‘market failure.’ Sources of market failure in the health care industry are identified as: 1) lack of competition; 2) insufficient information; 3) inadequate access to health care services; 4) presence of externalities; and 5) a persistent disequilibrium in the hospital, physicians, and nurses markets. The pricing of physicians services has often been described as that of a discriminating monopolist. Through market segmentation and patient demand manipulation the physician is able to charge different prices for virtually identical services. One form of market segmentation is that of physician specialization and sub-specializations thus contributing to the explosion in medical costs. This paper concludes that Americas health care industry has reached a crossroad. A national health insurance is needed including the implementation of uniform pricing and the discouragement of ‘sub-specializations’ with its price discriminatory practices. But National Health Insurance comes with a price of its own, the possible development of a ‘medical-industrial complex.’

Globalization and advertising in emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China (Routledge Studies in International Business and the World Economy)

appear. One can observe that ‘Mediapolis citizen acquire the first, second, and third roles while using pseudonyms, nicks and avatars’ (p. 254). Horizontal communication, with its functions of social control peculiar to the game environment, comes to constitute civil society in Mediapolis. In such a civil society, on the one hand, principles of direct democracy are realized, and on the other, new models of solidarity appear characterized by high levels of individualism within separate communities. The phenomenon of Mediapolis is described on the basis of a huge empirical data set that is in constant movement and is changing quickly. This determines the necessity and inevitability of the prolongation and extension of this research.