Sam Pattenden

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

BACKGROUND This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. METHODS The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. RESULTS Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. CONCLUSIONS Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Parental smoking and children’s respiratory health: independent effects of prenatal and postnatal exposure

Objectives: Adverse effects have been reported of prenatal and/or postnatal passive exposure to smoking on children’s health. Uncertainties remain about the relative importance of smoking at different periods in the child’s life. We investigate this in a pooled analysis, on 53 879 children from 12 cross-sectional studies—components of the PATY study (Pollution And The Young). Methods: Effects were estimated, within each study, of three exposures: mother smoked during pregnancy, parental smoking in the first two years, current parental smoking. Outcomes were: wheeze, asthma, “woken by wheeze”, bronchitis, nocturnal cough, morning cough, “sensitivity to inhaled allergens” and hay fever. Logistic regressions were used, controlling for individual risk factors and study area. Heterogeneity between study-specific results, and mean effects (allowing for heterogeneity) were estimated using meta-analytical tools. Results: There was strong evidence linking parental smoking to wheeze, asthma, bronchitis and nocturnal cough, with mean odds ratios all around 1.15, with independent effects of prenatal and postnatal exposures for most associations. Conclusions: Adverse effects of both pre- and postnatal parental smoking on children’s respiratory health were confirmed. Asthma was most strongly associated with maternal smoking during pregnancy, but postnatal exposure showed independent associations with a range of other respiratory symptoms. All tobacco smoke exposure has serious consequences for children’s respiratory health and needs to be reduced urgently.

Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain: population based study

Abstract Objective To examine the determinants of vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly British people. Design Population based cohort study (119 389 person years of follow up). Setting 106 general practices from the Medical Research Council trial of assessment and management of older people in Britain. Participants People aged ≥ 75 years. Main outcome measures Mortality (10 123 deaths) determined by follow up through the Office for National Statistics. Results Month to month variation accounted for 17% of annual all cause mortality, but only 7.8% after adjustment for temperature. The overall winter:non-winter rate ratio was 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.36). There was little evidence that this ratio varied by geographical region, age, or any of the personal, socioeconomic, or clinical factors examined, with two exceptions: after adjustment for all major covariates the winter:non-winter ratio in women compared with men was 1.11 (1.00 to 1.23), and those with a self reported history of respiratory illness had a winter:non-winter ratio of 1.20 (1.08 to 1.34) times that of people without a history of respiratory illness. There was no evidence that socioeconomic deprivation or self reported financial worries were predictive of winter death. Conclusion Except for female sex and pre-existing respiratory illness, there was little evidence for vulnerability to winter death associated with factors thought to lead to vulnerability. The lack of socioeconomic gradient suggests that policies aimed at relief of fuel poverty may need to be supplemented by additional measures to tackle the burden of excess winter deaths in elderly people.

Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London

Study objective: Heat and cold have been associated with increased mortality, independently of seasonal trends, but details are little known. This study explores associations between mortality and temperature in two European capitals—Sofia and London—using four years of daily deaths, air pollution, and weather data. Design: Generalised additive models were used to permit non-linear modelling of confounders such as season and humidity, and to show the shape of mortality-temperature relations—using both two day and two week average temperatures separately. Models with linear terms for heat and cold were used to estimate lags of effect, linear effects, and attributable fractions. Participants: 44 701 all age all cause deaths in Sofia (1996–1999) and 256 464 in London (1993–1996). Main results: In London, for each degree of extreme cold (below the 10th centile of the two week mean temperature), mortality increased by 4.2% (95% CI 3.4 to 5.1), and in Sofia by 1.8% (0.6 to 3.9). For each degree rise above the 95th centile of the two day mean, mortality increased by 1.9% (1.4 to 2.4) in London, and 3.5% (2.2 to 4.8) in Sofia. Cold effects appeared after lags of around three days and lasted—particularly in London—at least two weeks. Main heat effects occurred more promptly. There were inverse associations at later lags for heat and cold in Sofia. Conclusions: Average temperatures over short periods do not adequately model cold, and may be inadequate for heat if they ignore harvesting effects. Cold temperatures in London, particularly, seem to harm the general population and the effects are not concentrated among persons close to death.

Nutrition and respiratory health in children in six Central and Eastern European countries

Background: The results of studies on the effect of nutrition on respiratory diseases are inconsistent. The role of nutrition in children’s respiratory health was therefore analysed within the cross sectional Central European Study on Air Pollution and Respiratory Health (CESAR). Method: A total of 20 271 children aged 7–11 were surveyed in six European countries. Respiratory health and food intake were assessed using questionnaires. Associations between four symptoms and nutritional factors were evaluated using logistic regression, controlling for area plus other potential confounders. Results: All symptoms showed initial associations with nutritional factors. Low consumption of fish and of summer and winter fruit were the most consistent predictors. In a fully adjusted model low fish intake remained a significant independent predictor of persistent cough (OR=1.18; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.34), wheeze ever (OR=1.14; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25) and current wheeze (OR=1.21; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.39) and a weaker predictor of winter cough (OR=1.10; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.23). Low summer fruit intake was a predictor of winter cough (OR=1.40; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.79) and persistent cough (OR=1.35; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.82). Low winter fruit intake was associated with winter cough (OR=1.28; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.51). Associations between symptoms and vegetable intake were inconsistent. Low summer intake was significantly associated with winter cough (OR=1.23; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.47) but, overall, winter intake had inverse associations with both coughs. Associations between winter vegetable intake and wheeze varied considerably between countries. Conclusion: A number of associations were found between respiratory symptoms and low intake of fish, fruit and vegetables in children. Low fish intake was the most consistent predictor of poor respiratory health. Fruit and vegetable intake showed stronger associations with cough than with wheeze.

Prevalence of congenital anomalies in five British regions, 1991–99

Aims: To describe trends in total and live birth prevalence, regional differences in prevalence, and outcome of pregnancy of selected congenital anomalies. Methods: Population based registry study of 839 521 births to mothers resident in five geographical areas of Britain during 1991–99. Main outcome measures were: total and live birth prevalence; pregnancy outcome; proportion of stillbirths due to congenital anomalies; and secular trends. Results: The sample consisted of 10 844 congenital anomalies, giving a total prevalence of 129 per 10 000 registered births (95% CI 127 to 132). Live birth prevalence was 82.2 per 10 000 births (95% CI 80.3 to 84.2) and declined significantly with time. The proportion of all stillbirths with a congenital anomaly was 10.5% (453 stillbirths). The proportion of pregnancies resulting in a termination increased from 27% (289 cases) in 1991 to 34.7% (384 cases) in 1999, whereas the proportion of live births declined from 68.2% (730 cases) to 58.5% (648 cases). Although similar rates of congenital anomaly groups were notified to the registers, variation in rates by register was present. There was a secular decline in the total prevalence of non-chromosomal and an increase in chromosomal anomalies. Conclusions: Regional variation exists in the prevalence of specific congenital anomalies. For some anomalies this can be partially explained by ascertainment variation. For others (neural tube defects, diaphragmatic hernia, gastroschisis), higher prevalence rates in the northern regions (Glasgow and Northern) were true differences. Live birth prevalence declined over the study due to an increase in terminations of pregnancy.

Exposure to indoor mould and children’s respiratory health in the PATY study

Background: Living in a damp or mouldy home reportedly damages children’s respiratory health, yet mould appears not to be a prominent risk factor in the public’s perception. Analyses of data on over 58 000 children from the Pollution and the Young (PATY) study are presented. In this collaboration, researchers from 12 cross-sectional studies pooled their data to assess the effects of air quality on a spectrum of children’s respiratory disorders. Method: Original studies were conducted in Russia, North America and 10 countries in Eastern and Western Europe. Pooled analyses were restricted to children aged 6–12 years. Associations between visible mould reported in the household and a spectrum of eight respiratory and allergic symptoms were estimated within each study. Logistic regressions were used, controlling for individual risk factors and for study area. Heterogeneity between study-specific results and mean effects (allowing for heterogeneity) were estimated using meta-analysis. Results: Visible mould was reported by 13.9% of respondents in Russia, increasing to 39.1% in North America. Positive associations between exposure to mould and children’s respiratory health were seen with considerable consistency across studies and across outcomes. Confounder-adjusted combined ORs ranged from 1.30 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.39) for “nocturnal cough” to 1.50 (1.31 to 1.73) for “morning cough”. Evidence of stronger effects in more crowded households was statistically significant for only asthma and sensitivity to inhaled allergens. No consistent interactions between mould and age, sex or parental smoking were found. Conclusion: Indoor mould exposure was consistently associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in children living in these diverse countries.

Effect of influenza vaccination on excess deaths occurring during periods of high circulation of influenza: cohort study in elderly people.

Abstract Objective To estimate the protection against death provided by vaccination against influenza. Design Prospective cohort follow up supplemented by weekly national counts of influenza confirmed in the community. Setting Primary care. Participants 24 535 patients aged over 75 years from 73 general practices in Great Britain. Main outcome measure Death. Results In unvaccinated members of the cohort daily all cause mortality was strongly associated with an index of influenza circulating in the population (mortality ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.29 at 90th centile of circulating influenza). The association was strongest for respiratory deaths but was also present for cardiovascular deaths. In contrast, in vaccinated people mortality from any cause was not associated with circulating influenza. The difference in patterns between vaccinated and unvaccinated people could not easily be due to chance (P = 0.02, all causes). Conclusions This study, using a novel and robust approach to control for confounding, provides robust evidence of a protective effect on mortality of vaccination against influenza.

PM10, and children's respiratory symptoms and lung function in the PATY study

Studies of the impact of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution on the prevalence of respiratory symptoms and lung function in children have yielded mixed results, partly related to differences in study design, exposure assessment, confounder selection and data analysis. We assembled respiratory health and exposure data for >45,000 children from comparable cross-sectional studies in 12 countries. 11 respiratory symptoms were selected, for which comparable questions were asked. Spirometry was performed in about half of the children. Exposure to air pollution was mainly characterised by annual average concentrations of particulate matter with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 &mgr;m (PM10) measured at fixed sites within the study areas. Positive associations were found between the average PM10 concentration and the prevalence of phlegm (OR per 10 &mgr;g·m−3 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.30), hay fever (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99–1.46), bronchitis (OR 1.08, 95% CI 0.98–1.19), morning cough (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29) and nocturnal cough (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.98–1.29). There were no associations with diagnosed asthma or asthma symptoms. PM10 was not associated with lung function across all studies combined. Our study adds to the evidence that long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution, characterised by the concentration of PM10, is associated with increased respiratory symptoms.

Cancer incidence and mortality near the Baglan Bay petrochemical works, South Wales.

OBJECTIVES--To study incidence and mortality of leukaemias, cancer of the larynx, and other cancers near the petrochemical plant at Baglan Bay, in response to local concerns of an alleged cluster of cancers in the vicinity. METHODS--This is a small area study of cancer incidence, 1974-84 and of mortality, 1981-91 based on the national postcoded data held by the Small Area Health Statistics Unit and with population and socioeconomic data from the 1981 census. The study is centred on BP Chemicals Ltd, Baglan Bay, Port Talbot, West Glamorgan, South Wales and includes a general population sample of 115,721 people (1981 census) living within 7.5 km of the plant. Cancer incidence and mortality for all cancers, leukaemias, and cancer of the larynx were examined within 7.5 km and 3 km of the plant, and tests for decline in risk of these cancers with distance from the plant were carried out. Mortality from several other cancers possibly associated with the petrochemical industry was also studied. RESULTS--There were 5417 incident cancer cases and 2458 cancer deaths within 7.5 km of the plant during the periods of study. There was an 8% excess incidence of all cancers within 7.5 km, and a 24% excess of cancer of the larynx, consistent with a general excess of these cancers in West Glamorgan, but no apparent decline in incidence with distance from the plant, nor excess mortality. There was also no evidence of decline in leukaemia incidence or mortality with distance, at all ages or in children. Among the other causes included in the mortality study, there was an excess of multiple myeloma within 7.5 km, especially among women, and a significant decline in mortality from non-Hodgkins lymphomas although there was no excess overall within 7.5 km. CONCLUSIONS--The apparent excess incidence of all cancers and cancer of the larynx within 7.5 km of the BP Chemical Ltd works was consistent with an excess more generally in West Glamorgan, possibly related, at least to some extent, to cancer registration in Wales. There was no excess mortality from these cancers. The results for multiple myeloma and especially non-Hodgkins lymphomas may have been chance findings in view of the multiple tests of significance carried out in the study. A study of lymphatic and haematopoietic cancers near oil refineries in Great Britain is to be undertaken that will help put the findings of the present study in wider context.