Sam Yeaman

Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post‐glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration.

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change – evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

The genetic architecture of adaptation under migration-selection balance.

Many ecologically important traits have a complex genetic basis, with the potential for mutations at many different genes to shape the phenotype. Even so, studies of local adaptation in heterogeneous environments sometimes find that just a few quantitative trait loci (QTL) of large effect can explain a large percentage of observed differences between phenotypically divergent populations. As high levels of gene flow can swamp divergence at weakly selected alleles, migration–selection–drift balance may play an important role in shaping the genetic architecture of local adaptation. Here, we use analytical approximations and individual‐based simulations to explore how genetic architecture evolves when two populations connected by migration experience stabilizing selection toward different optima. In contrast to the exponential distribution of allele effect sizes expected under adaptation without migration (Orr 1998), we find that adaptation with migration tends to result in concentrated genetic architectures with fewer, larger, and more tightly linked divergent alleles. Even if many small alleles contribute to adaptation at the outset, they tend to be replaced by a few large alleles under prolonged bouts of stabilizing selection with migration. All else being equal, we also find that stronger selection can maintain linked clusters of locally adapted alleles over much greater map distances than weaker selection. The common empirical finding of QTL of large effect is shown to be expected with migration in a heterogeneous landscape, and these QTL may often be composed of several tightly linked alleles of smaller effect.

Genomic islands of divergence are not affected by geography of speciation in sunflowers

Genomic studies of speciation often report the presence of highly differentiated genomic regions interspersed within a milieu of weakly diverged loci. The formation of these speciation islands is generally attributed to reduced inter-population gene flow near loci under divergent selection, but few studies have critically evaluated this hypothesis. Here, we report on transcriptome scans among four recently diverged pairs of sunflower (Helianthus) species that vary in the geographical context of speciation. We find that genetic divergence is lower in sympatric and parapatric comparisons, consistent with a role for gene flow in eroding neutral differences. However, genomic islands of divergence are numerous and small in all comparisons, and contrary to expectations, island number and size are not significantly affected by levels of interspecific gene flow. Rather, island formation is strongly associated with reduced recombination rates. Overall, our results indicate that the functional architecture of genomes plays a larger role in shaping genomic divergence than does the geography of speciation.

Genomic rearrangements and the evolution of clusters of locally adaptive loci

Significance Genome scans often find that the loci involved in local adaptation tend to cluster together on chromosomes. A leading explanation suggests that clusters evolve because the probability of a new mutation establishing is higher when occurring near another locally adapted mutation, because such architectures are seldom disrupted by recombination. I show that this theory is unlikely to explain empirically observed clusters. Instead, simulations show that clusters are more likely to form through genomic rearrangements that bring coadapted loci close together. This suggests that ecological selection may play an important role in shaping genome architecture, in contrast to many nonadaptive explanations. Numerous studies of ecological genetics have found that alleles contributing to local adaptation sometimes cluster together, forming “genomic islands of divergence.” Divergence hitchhiking theory posits that these clusters evolve by the preferential establishment of tightly linked locally adapted mutations, because such linkage reduces the rate that recombination breaks up locally favorable combinations of alleles. Here, I use calculations based on previously developed analytical models of divergence hitchhiking to show that very few clustered mutations should be expected in a single bout of adaptation, relative to the number of unlinked mutations, suggesting that divergence hitchhiking theory alone may often be insufficient to explain empirical observations. Using individual-based simulations that allow for the transposition of a single genetic locus from one position on a chromosome to another, I then show that tight clustering of the loci involved in local adaptation tends to evolve on biologically realistic time scales. These results suggest that genomic rearrangements may often be an important component of local adaptation and the evolution of genomic islands of divergence. More generally, these results suggest that genomic architecture and functional neighborhoods of genes may be actively shaped by natural selection in heterogeneous environments. Because small-scale changes in gene order are relatively common in some taxa, comparative genomic studies could be coupled with studies of adaptation to explore how commonly such rearrangements are involved in local adaptation.

ESTABLISHMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ADAPTIVE GENETIC DIVERGENCE UNDER MIGRATION, SELECTION, AND DRIFT

There is a long tradition in population genetics of exploring the maintenance of variation under migration–selection balance using deterministic models that assume infinite population size. With finite population size, stochastic dynamics can greatly reduce the potential for the maintenance of polymorphism, but this has yet to be explored in detail. Here, classical two‐patch models are extended to predict: (1) the probability of a locally beneficial mutation rising in frequency in the patch where it is favored and (2) the critical threshold migration rate above which the maintenance of polymorphism is much less likely. Individual‐based simulations show that these approximations provide accurate predictions across a wide range of parameter space.

Establishment of new mutations under divergence and genome hitchhiking

Theoretical models addressing genome-wide patterns of divergence during speciation are needed to help us understand the evolutionary processes generating empirical patterns. Here, we examine a critical issue concerning speciation-with-gene flow: to what degree does physical linkage (r < 0.5) of new mutations to already diverged genes aid the build-up of genomic islands of differentiation? We used simulation and analytical approaches to partition the probability of establishment for a new divergently selected mutation when the mutation (i) is the first to arise in an undifferentiated genome (the direct effect of selection), (ii) arises unlinked to any selected loci (r = 0.5), but within a genome that has some already diverged genes (the effect of genome-wide reductions in gene flow for facilitating divergence, which we term ‘genome hitchhiking’), and (iii) arises in physical linkage to a diverged locus (divergence hitchhiking). We find that the strength of selection acting directly on a new mutation is generally the most important predictor for establishment, with divergence and genomic hitchhiking having smaller effects. We outline the specific conditions under which divergence and genome hitchhiking can aid mutation establishment. The results generate predictions about genome divergence at different points in the speciation process and avenues for further work.

Regional heterogeneity and gene flow maintain variance in a quantitative trait within populations of lodgepole pine

Genetic variation is of fundamental importance to biological evolution, yet we still know very little about how it is maintained in nature. Because many species inhabit heterogeneous environments and have pronounced local adaptations, gene flow between differently adapted populations may be a persistent source of genetic variation within populations. If this migration–selection balance is biologically important then there should be strong correlations between genetic variance within populations and the amount of heterogeneity in the environment surrounding them. Here, we use data from a long-term study of 142 populations of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) to compare levels of genetic variation in growth response with measures of climatic heterogeneity in the surrounding region. We find that regional heterogeneity explains at least 20% of the variation in genetic variance, suggesting that gene flow and heterogeneous selection may play an important role in maintaining the high levels of genetic variation found within natural populations.

Mandated data archiving greatly improves access to research data

The data underlying scientific papers should be accessible to researchers both now and in the future, but how best can we ensure that these data are available? Here we examine the effectiveness of four approaches to data archiving: no stated archiving policy, recommending (but not requiring) archiving, and two versions of mandating data deposition at acceptance. We control for differences between data types by trying to obtain data from papers that use a single, widespread population genetic analysis, structure. At one extreme, we found that mandated data archiving policies that require the inclusion of a data availability statement in the manuscript improve the odds of finding the data online almost 1000‐fold compared to having no policy. However, archiving rates at journals with less stringent policies were only very slightly higher than those with no policy at all. We also assessed the effectiveness of asking for data directly from authors and obtained over half of the requested datasets, albeit with ~8 d delay and some disagreement with authors. Given the long‐term benefits of data accessibility to the academic community, we believe that journal‐based mandatory data archiving policies and mandatory data availability statements should be more widely adopted.—Vines, T. H., Andrew, R. L., Bock, D. G., Franklin, M. T., Gilbert, K. J., Kane, N. C., Moore, J‐S., Moyers, B. T., Renaut, S., Rennison, D. J., Veen, T., Yeaman, S. Mandated data archiving greatly improves access to research data. FASEB J. 27, 1304–1308 (2013). www.fasebj.org

Convergent local adaptation to climate in distantly related conifers

When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles.