Samantha Bielen

An Empirical Analysis of Case Disposition Time in Belgium

Abstract This paper analyzes the determinants of case disposition times in Belgian first instance courts by exploiting a unique dataset of 174 court cases. Unlike previous studies, our analysis focuses mainly on case-level determinants. Regression results show that the use of expert assessments on average prolongs overall disposition time by 902 days. Furthermore, the number of pleadings, as a proxy of case complexity, also significantly impacts the duration of trials. Additionally, results indicate that case outcomes, such as settlements or plaintiff wins, are significant determinants of case duration. In addition to case-level characteristics, our results indicate that two civil procedure reforms aimed at accelerating adjudication led to a major decrease of case duration in Belgian first instance courts.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Employing ARIMA Components for Time Series Forecasting

In this paper, we address some shortcomings of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) in the context of time series prediction. The transparent and comprehensive nature of FCMs provides several advantages that are appreciated for decision-maker. In spite of this fact, FCMs also have some features that are hard to match with time series prediction, resulting in a prediction power that is probably not as extensive as other techniques can boast. By introducing some ideas from ARIMA models, this paper aims at overcoming some of these concerns. The proposed model is evaluated on a real-world case study, captured in a dataset of crime registrations in the Belgian province of Antwerp. The results have shown that our proposal is capable of predicting multiple steps ahead in an entire system of fluctuating time series. However, these enhancements come at the cost of a lower prediction accuracy and less transparency than standard FCM models can achieve. Therefore, further research is required to provide a comprehensive solution.

A Conceptual Framework on the Impact of Regulatory Quality on Litigation

Abstract In the research fields of both law and economics, literature on the quality of regulation has gained importance in recent years. Particularly, the economic effect of sound business regulation has been examined. However, almost no research exists on the effect of regulatory quality on litigation and court delay. Therefore, this article examines the latter relationship by developing a conceptual framework, which states that lower regulatory quality: (i) stimulates the recourse to justice and (ii) increases case disposition time by impeding the judges and lawyers’ work. Both effects in turn increase backlogs in the courts. Furthermore, this article provides empirical evidence that confirms the hypothesized inverse relationship between litigation and regulatory quality.

Understanding the Time to Court Case Resolution: A Competing Risks Analysis Using Belgian Data

Court delays are a frequent concern, yet what explains court case duration remains incompletely understood. We study the time to court case resolution by drawing on a detailed case-level dataset of civil suits filed at a major Belgian court. We utilize the competing risks regression framework to address the typically neglected heterogeneity in the modes of court case resolution and examine the role of a wide range of both time-invariant and time-varying covariates. Controlling for judge fixed effects, we find substantial disparities in the effect of party and case characteristics on the time to settlement versus trial judgment. Exploiting the de facto random assignment of cases to serving judges within the courts chambers, we further find that judge characteristics matter for time to trial judgment, but not for time to settlement. Modeling heterogeneity in the modes of court case resolution is therefore central to understanding of court case durations.

Are Courts to Blame for Delays in Belgian Civil Procedures?: A Decomposition of Case Duration

ABSTRACT This article examines the duration of 238 construction cases at three first instance courts in Belgium by composing a detailed timeline for each case. The results show that disputing parties account for 40 percent of overall duration, calendar delays and judges each for 23 percent. Despite the differences in overall duration between our three courts, the relative shares of disputing parties, judges, and legal experts are nearly identical. Furthermore, we combined our quantitative results with interviews of all judges involved in our dataset and an elaborated lawyer survey. Both the quantitative and qualitative results show that the level of activism of the judges involved significantly impacts the overall duration and efficient flow of proceedings. Our results suggest that judges do have the possibility to speed up proceedings, but given the prevalence of party autonomy in Belgium, a change in mindset of many judges is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of guidelines and procedural rules that aim at accelerating court procedures.