Samir Ghazouani

Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the MENA Region

Over the last four decades, a wide theoretical debate is concerned with the fundamental relationship between financial development and economic growth. Recent studies shed some light on the simultaneous effect of banks and financial system development on growth rather than a separate impact. The empirical study is conducted using an unbalanced panel data from 11 MENA region countries. Econometric issues will be based on estimation of a dynamic panel model with GMM estimators. Thus, peculiarities of MENA region countries will be detected. The empirical results reinforce the idea of no significant relationship between banking and stock market development, and growth. The association between bank development and economic growth is even negative after controlling for stock market development. This lack of relationship must be linked to underdeveloped financial systems in the MENA region that hamper economic growth. Then, more needs to be done to reinforce the institutional environment and improve the functioning of the banking sector in the MENA region. Based on these results, other regions at the same stage of financial development such as Africa, Eastern Europe or Latin America should improve the functioning of their financial system in order to prevent their economies from the negative impact of a shaky financial market.

The determinants of stock market development in the Middle‐Eastern and North African region

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of stock markets in economic growth and to shed some light on the macroeconomic determinants which must have an important influence on stock markets development. Design/methodology/approach - The empirical study is conducted using an unbalanced panel data from 12 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) region countries. Econometric issues are based on estimation of some fixed and random effects specifications. Findings - It is found that saving rate, financial intermediary, stock market liquidity and the stabilization variable are the important determinants of stock market development. In addition, it is found that financial intermediaries and stock markets are complements rather than substitutes in the growth process. Practical implications - This paper has some policy implications to MENA region countries. In order to promote stock market development in the region, it is important to encourage savings by appropriate incentives, to improve stock market liquidity, to develop financial intermediaries and to control inflation. Originality/value - Since it is unclear whether emerging markets in the MENA region respond, similarly, to economic and political shocks like other emerging markets and/or developed markets. This paper fills this gap by making an in-depth analysis of 12 MENA capital markets in order to assess how they can improve their capital markets, and hence, benefit the global investor.

The performance of newly privatized firms in selected MENA countries: The role of ownership structure, governance and liberalization policies

The paper works with a sample of 95 newly privatized firms (NPFs) that went public through stock markets in four Middle East and North Africa countries (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey). We find that these firms experience significant increase in profitability and operating efficiency, and significant decline in employment and leverage. We also document strong performance improvements for firms that not relinquish control from the state, that are not sold to foreigners and that come from Egypt. Employment decline is more severe in Egypt and in firms where the state is no longer in control. Also, the results indicate that revenue firms and NPFs in Morocco yield significantly less leverage than control firms and those from other countries. As for the sources of these performance changes, we find that profitability change is negatively related to control relinquishment by the government and positively related with foreign ownership. Trade openness, change in real GDP over the privatization window, index of investor protection and foreign ownership are important determinants of the change in sales efficiency and output changes. These findings suggest that NPFs become more productive in environments where property rights are better protected and enforced and that foreign investors influence the firms productivity through their monitoring role.

Does Inflation Impact on Financial Sector Performance in the MENA Region

This study gives some issues regarding the relationship between inflation and the financial sector performance for some MENA region countries. The negative association is confirmed through the estimation of a dynamic panel model using the GMM methodology. Moreover, a threshold effect must be also identified in order to prove that negative effect of inflation on the financial sector performance becomes appreciable once the rate of inflation exceeds some threshold.

The Determinants of Stock Market Development in the MENA Region

Since few decades, a wide theoretical debate is concerned with the fundamental relationship between financial development and economic growth. An efficient financial system leads to a sustainable economic growth. In this study, we are interested especially with stock markets as a main component of the financial system according to the increasing role of financial markets in economies. So, their evolution plays an important role in economic growth. We shed some light on the macroeconomic determinants which must have an important influence on stock markets development. It is recognized that real or financial variables such as real income, saving rate, credit to private sector, M3, value traded, turnover, etc. could have a significant impact on market capitalization. The empirical study is conducted using an unbalanced panel data from twelve MENA region countries. Econometric issues are based on estimation of some fixed and random effects specifications. With such specifications in mind, peculiarities of MENA region countries are detected as well as differentiations among them. Thus, differences in market capitalization are explained. The empirical expected results must reinforce the idea which suggest the important role of economic development in promoting stock market development. Explaining power of variables such as real income, saving rate, inflation, financial intermediary development and stock market liquidity is confirmed. Banks and stock markets seem to be complements instead of substitutes.

On the Linkage between Monetary Policy and MENA Stock Markets

Using a sample of eight MENA region countries this study tries to understand whether there is an interaction between asset markets and monetary policy. The nature of the relationship between asset price movements and monetary policy is currently a hotly debated topic in macroeconomics. Relatively little empirical evidence is available that estimates the relationship between asset price movements and monetary policy measures. From a comparative perspective, promising results reflect a significant effect of an appropriate monetary policy on stock market development especially in Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia using a VAR methodology. On the other hand, the responsiveness of stock markets differs across these MENA countries. In some countries stock market return depicts an upward tendency while in other countries it declines or do react at all.

Privatization and Financial Market Development in Emerging Countries: A Comparative Study

This paper examines the impact of privatization on stock market size and liquidity in a multinational sample of 31 emerging markets. We find that the intensity of privatization and the use of privatization offerings (POs) on the stock market contribute to enhance stock market development, but the documented effects vary across geographical regions, owing to the specificities of the divestiture process. We use GMM procedure in order to estimate dynamic panel specifications and find that privatization appears to be the most beneficial in the Asian sub-sample where most favorable conditions were put in place before privatization actually started. In other regions, however, similar positive outcomes are yet to materialize. We derive several policy implications from our results.

Is There A Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Selected MENA Countries? A Comparative Analysis

This paper investigates whether or not there are differential effects of monetary policy across bank characteristics in some selected MENA countries namely Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia, to test for the presence of the bank lending channel (BLC). It uses a panel of micro bank balance sheet data from 1989 to 2007 to estimate the response of bank lending to changes in the monetary policy stance. The assumptions that the effect of a change in the monetary policy stance on a bank’s lending activity depends on its capital, size, and on its liquidity base are tested. It has been found that the BLC is operative in almost all the countries. More specifically, the effects of bank characteristics in shaping the banks reaction to changes in the monetary policy are not uniform through the four countries.

Asset Pricing and Cost of Equity in the Tunisian Banking Sector: Panel Data Evidence

In spite of popularity and theoretical simplicity of the one-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) used in the valuation of financial assets, researchers are more concerned with the important extension proposed by Fama and French (1993), that is, the Three-Factor Pricing Model (TFPM). Alongside beta, average stock returns could be explained by some size and book-to-market supplementary effects. With these two complementary models, estimation of the cost of equity is carried out for the Tunisian banking sector. In order to account for inter-individual heterogeneity, estimation of parameters is conducted according to random coefficient specifications within the context of panel data analysis.

Monetary Transmission Mechanisms: The Credit versus the Interest Rate Channel

A critical element of the monetary policy process is knowledge of the quantitative effects of policy actions. In recent years, much attention in the literature devoted to developed countries has been given to the role of credit markets, especially the role of banks (Kashyap et al., 1993; Kashyap and Stein, 1994). Moreover, the theoretical literature has been developed on the basis of recent developments in financial contracts under asymmetrical information, and empirical research has increasingly included financial variables in the analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy, especially bank lending.