Samuel I. Watson

The history, geography, and sociology of slums and the health problems of people who live in slums

Massive slums have become major features of cities in many low-income and middle-income countries. Here, in the first in a Series of two papers, we discuss why slums are unhealthy places with especially high risks of infection and injury. We show that children are especially vulnerable, and that the combination of malnutrition and recurrent diarrhoea leads to stunted growth and longer-term effects on cognitive development. We find that the scientific literature on slum health is underdeveloped in comparison to urban health, and poverty and health. This shortcoming is important because health is affected by factors arising from the shared physical and social environment, which have effects beyond those of poverty alone. In the second paper we will consider what can be done to improve health and make recommendations for the development of slum health as a field of study.

Weekend specialist intensity and admission mortality in acute hospital trusts in England: a cross-sectional study

Summary Background Increased mortality rates associated with weekend hospital admission (the so-called weekend effect) have been attributed to suboptimum staffing levels of specialist consultants. However, evidence for a causal association is elusive, and the magnitude of the weekend specialist deficit remains unquantified. This uncertainty could hamper efforts by national health systems to introduce 7 day health services. We aimed to examine preliminary associations between specialist intensity and weekend admission mortality across the English National Health Service. Methods Eligible hospital trusts were those in England receiving unselected emergency admissions. On Sunday June 15 and Wednesday June 18, 2014, we undertook a point prevalence survey of hospital specialists (consultants) to obtain data relating to the care of patients admitted as emergencies. We defined specialist intensity at each trust as the self-reported estimated number of specialist hours per ten emergency admissions between 0800 h and 2000 h on Sunday and Wednesday. With use of data for all adult emergency admissions for financial year 2013–14, we compared weekend to weekday admission risk of mortality with the Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratio within each trust. We stratified trusts by size quintile. Findings 127 of 141 eligible acute hospital trusts agreed to participate; 115 (91%) trusts contributed data to the point prevalence survey. Of 34 350 clinicians surveyed, 15 537 (45%) responded. Substantially fewer specialists were present providing care to emergency admissions on Sunday (1667 [11%]) than on Wednesday (6105 [42%]). Specialists present on Sunday spent 40% more time caring for emergency patients than did those present on Wednesday (mean 5·74 h [SD 3·39] vs 3·97 h [3·31]); however, the median specialist intensity on Sunday was only 48% (IQR 40–58) of that on Wednesday. The Sunday to Wednesday intensity ratio was less than 0·7 in 104 (90%) of the contributing trusts. Mortality risk among patients admitted at weekends was higher than among those admitted on weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·08–1·11; p<0·0001). There was no significant association between Sunday to Wednesday specialist intensity ratios and weekend to weekday mortality ratios (r −0·042; p=0·654). Interpretation This cross-sectional analysis did not detect a correlation between weekend staffing of hospital specialists and mortality risk for emergency admissions. Further investigation is needed to evaluate whole-system secular change during the implementation of 7 day services. Policy makers should exercise caution before attributing the weekend effect mainly to differences in specialist staffing. Funding National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme.

The effects of designation and volume of neonatal care on mortality and morbidity outcomes of very preterm infants in England: retrospective population-based cohort study

Objective To examine the effects of designation and volume of neonatal care at the hospital of birth on mortality and morbidity outcomes in very preterm infants in a managed clinical network setting. Design A retrospective, population-based analysis of operational clinical data using adjusted logistic regression and instrumental variables (IV) analyses. Setting 165 National Health Service neonatal units in England contributing data to the National Neonatal Research Database at the Neonatal Data Analysis Unit and participating in the Neonatal Economic, Staffing and Clinical Outcomes Project. Participants 20 554 infants born at <33 weeks completed gestation (17 995 born at 27–32 weeks; 2559 born at <27 weeks), admitted to neonatal care and either discharged or died, over the period 1 January 2009–31 December 2011. Intervention Tertiary designation or high-volume neonatal care at the hospital of birth. Outcomes Neonatal mortality, any in-hospital mortality, surgery for necrotising enterocolitis, surgery for retinopathy of prematurity, bronchopulmonary dysplasia and postmenstrual age at discharge. Results Infants born at <33 weeks gestation and admitted to a high-volume neonatal unit at the hospital of birth were at reduced odds of neonatal mortality (IV regression odds ratio (OR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.92) and any in-hospital mortality (IV regression OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.85). The effect of volume on any in-hospital mortality was most acute among infants born at <27 weeks gestation (IV regression OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.79). A negative association between tertiary-level unit designation and mortality was also observed with adjusted logistic regression for infants born at <27 weeks gestation. Conclusions High-volume neonatal care provided at the hospital of birth may protect against in-hospital mortality in very preterm infants. Future developments of neonatal services should promote delivery of very preterm infants at hospitals with high-volume neonatal units.

The effects of a one-to-one nurse-to-patient ratio on the mortality rate in neonatal intensive care: a retrospective, longitudinal, population-based study

Objective To estimate the effect of the provision of a one-to-one nurse-to-patient ratio on mortality rates in neonatal intensive care units. Design A population-based analysis of operational clinical data using an instrumental variable method. Setting National Health Service neonatal units in England contributing data to the National Neonatal Research Database at the Neonatal Data Analysis Unit and participating in the Neonatal Economic, Staffing, and Clinical Outcomes Project. Participants 43 tertiary-level neonatal units observed monthly over the period January 2008 to December 2012. Intervention Proportion of neonatal intensive care days or proportion of intensive care admissions for which one-to-one nursing was provided. Outcomes Monthly in-hospital intensive care mortality rate. Results Over the study period, the provision of one-to-one nursing in tertiary neonatal units declined from a median of 9.1% of intensive care days in 2008 to 5.9% in 2012. A 10 percentage point decrease in the proportion of intensive care days on which one-to-one nursing was provided was associated with an increase in the in-hospital mortality rate of 0.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 0.0) deaths per 100 infants receiving neonatal intensive care per month compared with a median monthly mortality rate of 4.5 deaths per 100 infants per month. The results remained robust to sensitivity analyses that varied the estimation sample of units, the choice of instrumental variables, unit classification and the selection of control variables. Conclusions Our study suggests that decreases in the provision of one-to-one nursing in tertiary-level neonatal intensive care units increase the in-hospital mortality rate.

Improving the health and welfare of people who live in slums

In the first paper in this Series we assessed theoretical and empirical evidence and concluded that the health of people living in slums is a function not only of poverty but of intimately shared physical and social environments. In this paper we extend the theory of so-called neighbourhood effects. Slums offer high returns on investment because beneficial effects are shared across many people in densely populated neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood effects also help explain how and why the benefits of interventions vary between slum and non-slum spaces and between slums. We build on this spatial concept of slums to argue that, in all low-income and-middle-income countries, census tracts should henceforth be designated slum or non-slum both to inform local policy and as the basis for research surveys that build on censuses. We argue that slum health should be promoted as a topic of enquiry alongside poverty and health.

The magnitude and mechanisms of the weekend effect in hospital admissions: A protocol for a mixed methods review incorporating a systematic review and framework synthesis

BackgroundGrowing literature has demonstrated that patients admitted to hospital during weekends tend to have less favourable outcomes, including increased mortality, compared with similar patients admitted during weekdays. Major policy interventions such as the 7-day services programme in the UK NHS have been initiated to reduce this weekend effect, although the mechanisms behind the effect are unclear. Here, we propose a mixed methods review to systematically examine the literature surrounding the magnitude and mechanisms of the weekend effect.MethodsMEDLINE, CINAHL, HMIC, EMBASE, EthOS, CPCI and the Cochrane Library were searched from Jan 2000 to April 2015 using terms related to ‘weekends or out-of-hours’ and ‘hospital admissions’. The 5404 retrieved records were screened by the review team, and will feed into two component reviews: a systematic review of the magnitude of the weekend effect and a framework synthesis of the mechanisms of the weekend effect. A repeat search of MEDLINE will be conducted mid-2016 to update both component reviews. The systematic review will include quantitative studies of non-specific hospital admissions. The primary outcome is the weekend effect on mortality, which will be estimated using a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. Weekend effects on adverse events, length of hospital stay and patient experience will also be examined. The development of the framework synthesis has been informed by the initial scoping of the literature and focus group discussions. The synthesis will examine both quantitative and qualitative studies that have compared the processes and quality of care between weekends and weekdays, and explicate the underlying mechanisms of the weekend effect.DiscussionThe weekend effect is a complex phenomenon that has major implications for the organisation of health services. Its magnitude and underlying mechanisms have been subject to heated debate. Published literature reviews have adopted restricted scopes or methods and mainly focused on quantitative evidence. This proposed review intends to provide a comprehensive and in-depth synthesis of diverse evidence to inform future policy and research aiming to address the weekend effect.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO 2016: CRD42016036487

Children who have received no routine polio vaccines in Nigeria: Who are they and where do they live?

ABSTRACT Nigeria has made remarkable progress against polio, but 2 wild polio virus cases were reported in August 2016; putting an end to 2 y without reported cases. We examined the extent of geographical disparities in childhren not vaccinated against polio and examined individual- and community-level predictors of non-vaccination in Nigeria. We applied multilevel logistic regression models to the recent Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The percentage of children not routinely vaccinated against polio in Nigeria varied greatly and clustered geographically, mainly in north-eastern states, with a great risk of spread of transmission within these states and potential exportation to neighboring states and countries. Only about one-third had received all recommended 4 routine oral polio vaccine doses. Non-vaccinated children tended to have a mother who had no formal education and who was currently not working, live in poorer households and were from neighborhoods with higher maternal illiteracy rates.

Two-epoch cross-sectional case record review protocol comparing quality of care of hospital emergency admissions at weekends versus weekdays

Introduction The mortality associated with weekend admission to hospital (the ‘weekend effect’) has for many years been attributed to deficiencies in quality of hospital care, often assumed to be due to suboptimal senior medical staffing at weekends. This protocol describes a case note review to determine whether there are differences in care quality for emergency admissions (EAs) to hospital at weekends compared with weekdays, and whether the difference has reduced over time as health policies have changed to promote 7-day services. Methods and analysis Cross-sectional two-epoch case record review of 20 acute hospital Trusts in England. Anonymised case records of 4000 EAs to hospital, 2000 at weekends and 2000 on weekdays, covering two epochs (financial years 2012–2013 and 2016–2017). Admissions will be randomly selected across the whole of each epoch from Trust electronic patient records. Following training, structured implicit case reviews will be conducted by consultants or senior registrars (senior residents) in acute medical specialities (60 case records per reviewer), and limited to the first 7 days following hospital admission. The co-primary outcomes are the weekend:weekday admission ratio of errors per case record, and a global assessment of care quality on a Likert scale. Error rates will be analysed using mixed effects logistic regression models, and care quality using ordinal regression methods. Secondary outcomes include error typology, error-related adverse events and any correlation between error rates and staffing. The data will also be used to inform a parallel health economics analysis. Ethics and dissemination The project has received ethics approval from the South West Wales Research Ethics Committee (REC): reference 13/WA/0372. Informed consent is not required for accessing anonymised patient case records from which patient identifiers had been removed. The findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications in high-quality journals and through local High-intensity Specialist-Led Acute Care (HiSLAC) leads at the 121 hospitals that make up the HiSLAC Collaborative.

Cost-effectiveness of health care service delivery interventions in low and middle income countries: a systematic review

BackgroundLow and middle income countries (LMICs) face severe resource limitations but the highest burden of disease. There is a growing evidence base on effective and cost-effective interventions for these diseases. However, questions remain about the most cost-effective method of delivery for these interventions. We aimed to review the scope, quality, and findings of economic evaluations of service delivery interventions in LMICs.MethodsWe searched PUBMED, MEDLINE, EconLit, and NHS EED for studies published between 1st January 2000 and 30th October 2016 with no language restrictions. We included all economic evaluations that reported incremental costs and benefits or summary measures of the two such as an incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Studies were grouped by both disease area and outcome measure and permutation plots were completed for similar interventions. Quality was judged by the Drummond checklist.ResultsOverall, 3818 potentially relevant abstracts were identified of which 101 studies were selected for full text review. Thirty-seven studies were included in the final review. Twenty-three studies reported on interventions we classed as “changing by whom and where care was provided”, specifically interventions that entailed task-shifting from doctors to nurses or community health workers or from facilities into the community. Evidence suggests this type of intervention is likely to be cost-effective or cost-saving. Nine studies reported on quality improvement initiatives, which were generally found to be cost-effective. Quality and methods differed widely limiting comparability of the studies and findings.ConclusionsThere is significant heterogeneity in the literature, both methodologically and in quality. This renders further comparisons difficult and limits the utility of the available evidence to decision makers.

Evaluating the impact of a community health worker programme on non-communicable disease, malnutrition, tuberculosis, family planning and antenatal care in Neno, Malawi: protocol for a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial

Introduction This protocol concerns the implementation and evaluation of an intervention designed to realign the existing cadre of community health workers (CHWs) in Neno district, Malawi to better support the care needs of the clients they serve. The proposed intervention is a ‘Household Model’ where CHWs will be reassigned to households, rather than to specific patients with HIV and/or tuberculosis (TB). Methods and analysis Using a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised design, this study investigates whether high HIV retention rates can be replicated for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and the model’s impact on TB and paediatric malnutrition case finding, as well as the uptake of family planning and antenatal care. Eleven sites (health centres and hospitals) were arranged into six clusters (average cluster population 21 800). Primary outcomes include retention in care for HIV and chronic NCDs, TB case finding, paediatric malnutrition case finding, and utilisation of early and complete antenatal care. Clinical outcomes are based on routinely collected data from the Ministry of Health’s District Health Information System 2 and an OpenMRS electronic medical record supported by Partners In Health. Additionally, semistructured qualitative interviews with various stakeholders will assess community perceptions and context of the Household Model. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been obtained from the Malawian National Health Science Research Committee (#16/11/1694) in Lilongwe, Malawi; Partners Healthcare Human Research Committee (#2017P000548/PHS) in Somerville, Massachusetts; and the Biomedical and Scientific Research Ethics Sub-Committee (REGO-2017–2060) at the University of Warwick in Coventry, UK. Dissemination will include manuscripts for peer-reviewed publication as well as a full report detailing the findings of the intervention for the Malawian Ministry of Health. Trial registration number NCT03106727. Primary sponsor Partners In Health | Abwenzi Pa Za Umoyo P.O. Box 56, Neno, Malawi. Protocol Version 4, March 2018.