Samy Suissa

The use of β-agonists and the risk of death and near death from asthma

Abstract Background. Morbidity and mortality from asthma appear to be increasing, and it has been suggested that medications used to treat asthma are contributing to this trend. We investigated a possible association between death or near death from asthma and the regular use of β2-agonist bronchodilators. Methods. Using linked health insurance data bases from Saskatchewan, Canada, we conducted a matched case–control study of subjects drawn from a cohort of 12,301 patients for whom asthma medications had been prescribed between 1978 and 1987. We matched 129 case patients who had fatal or near-fatal asthma with 655 controls (who had received medications for asthma but had not had fatal or near-fatal events) with respect to region of residence, age, receipt of social assistance, and previous hospitalization for asthma. Results. The use of β-agonists administered by a metered-dose inhaler was associated with an increased risk of death from asthma (odds ratio, 2.6 per canister per month; 95 percent confidence...

Low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and the prevention of death from asthma.

BACKGROUND Although inhaled corticosteroids are effective for the treatment of asthma, it is uncertain whether their use can prevent death from asthma. METHODS We used the Saskatchewan Health data bases to form a population-based cohort of all subjects from 5 through 44 years of age who were using antiasthma drugs during the period from 1975 through 1991. We followed subjects until the end of 1997, their 55th birthday, death, emigration, or termination of health insurance coverage; whichever came first. We conducted a nested case-control study in which subjects who died of asthma were matched with controls within the cohort according to the length of follow-up at the time of death of the case patient (the index date), the date of study entry, and the severity of asthma. We calculated rate ratios after adjustment for the subjects age and sex; the number of prescriptions of theophylline, nebulized and oral beta-adrenergic agonists, and oral corticosteroids in the year before the index date; the number of canisters of inhaled beta-adrenergic agonists used in the year before the index date; and the number of hospitalizations for asthma in the two years before the index date. RESULTS The cohort consisted of 30,569 subjects. Of the 562 deaths, 77 were classified as due to asthma. We matched the 66 subjects who died of asthma for whom there were complete data with 2681 controls. Fifty-three percent of the case patients and 46 percent of the control patients had used inhaled corticosteroids in the previous year, most commonly low-dose beclomethasone. The mean number of canisters was 1.18 for the patients who died and 1.57 for the controls. On the basis of a continuous dose-response analysis, we calculated that the rate of death from asthma decreased by 21 percent with each additional canister of inhaled corticosteroids used in the previous year (adjusted rate ratio, 0.79; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.97). The rate of death from asthma during the first three months after discontinuation of inhaled corticosteroids was higher than the rate among patients who continued to use the drugs. CONCLUSIONS The regular use of low-dose inhaled corticosteroids is associated with a decreased risk of death from asthma.

Use of Statins and the Risk of Death in Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE To determine whether the use of statins after prostate cancer diagnosis is associated with a decreased risk of cancer-related mortality and all-cause mortality and to assess whether this association is modified by prediagnostic use of statins. PATIENTS AND METHODS A cohort of 11,772 men newly diagnosed with nonmetastatic prostate cancer between April 1, 1998, and December 31, 2009, followed until October 1, 2012, was identified using a large population-based electronic database from the United Kingdom. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs of mortality outcomes associated with postdiagnostic use of statins, lagged by 1 year to account for latency considerations and to minimize reverse causality, and considering effect modification by prediagnostic use of statins. RESULTS During a mean follow-up time of 4.4 years (standard deviation, 2.9 years), 3,499 deaths occurred, including 1,791 from prostate cancer. Postdiagnostic use of statins was associated with a decreased risk of prostate cancer mortality (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.88) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.95). These decreased risks of prostate cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were more pronounced in patients who also used statins before diagnosis (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.74; and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81, respectively), with weaker effects in patients who initiated the treatment only after diagnosis (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96; and HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.01, respectively). CONCLUSION Overall, the use of statins after diagnosis was associated with a decreased risk in prostate cancer mortality. However, this effect was stronger in patients who also used statins before diagnosis.

Renal and Retinal Effects of Enalapril and Losartan in Type 1 Diabetes

BACKGROUND Nephropathy and retinopathy remain important complications of type 1 diabetes. It is unclear whether their progression is slowed by early administration of drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system. METHODS We conducted a multicenter, controlled trial involving 285 normotensive patients with type 1 diabetes and normoalbuminuria and who were randomly assigned to receive losartan (100 mg daily), enalapril (20 mg daily), or placebo and followed for 5 years. The primary end point was a change in the fraction of glomerular volume occupied by mesangium in kidney-biopsy specimens. The retinopathy end point was a progression on a retinopathy severity scale of two steps or more. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed with the use of linear regression and logistic-regression models. RESULTS A total of 90% and 82% of patients had complete renal-biopsy and retinopathy data, respectively. Change in mesangial fractional volume per glomerulus over the 5-year period did not differ significantly between the placebo group (0.016 units) and the enalapril group (0.005, P=0.38) or the losartan group (0.026, P=0.26), nor were there significant treatment benefits for other biopsy-assessed renal structural variables. The 5-year cumulative incidence of microalbuminuria was 6% in the placebo group; the incidence was higher with losartan (17%, P=0.01 by the log-rank test) but not with enalapril (4%, P=0.96 by the log-rank test). As compared with placebo, the odds of retinopathy progression by two steps or more was reduced by 65% with enalapril (odds ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14 to 0.85) and by 70% with losartan (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.73), independently of changes in blood pressure. There were three biopsy-related serious adverse events that completely resolved. Chronic cough occurred in 12 patients receiving enalapril, 6 receiving losartan, and 4 receiving placebo. CONCLUSIONS Early blockade of the renin-angiotensin system in patients with type 1 diabetes did not slow nephropathy progression but slowed the progression of retinopathy. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00143949.)

A population-based, randomized clinical trial on back pain management.

Study Design. Population‐based randomized clinical trial. Objectives. To develop and test a model of management of subacute back pain, to prevent prolonged disability. Summary of Background Data. The present management of back pain seems inadequate, and development of innovative models has been urged. Methods. A model for the treatment of subacute work‐related back pain has been developed and evaluated in a population‐based randomized clinical trial. Workers (n = 130) from eligible workplaces in the Sherbrooke area (N = 31), who had been absent from work for more than 4 weeks for back pain, were randomized, based on their workplace, in one of four treatment groups: usual care, clinical intervention, occupational intervention, and full intervention (a combination of the last two). The duration of absence from regular work and from any work was evaluated using survival analysis. Functional status and pain were compared at study entry and after 1 year of follow‐up. Results. The full intervention group returned to regular work 2.41 times faster than the usual care intervention group (95% confidence interval 1.19‐4.89; P = 0.01). The specific effect of the occupational intervention accounted for the most important part of this result, with a rate ratio of return to regular work of 1.91 (95% confidence interval = 1.18‐3.10; P < 0.01). Pain and disability scales demonstrated either a statistically significant reduction or a trend toward reduction in the three intervention groups, compared with the trend in the usual care intervention group. Conclusions. Close association of occupational intervention with clinical care is of primary importance in impeding progression toward chronicity of low back pain.

Problem of immortal time bias in cohort studies: example using statins for preventing progression of diabetes

Immortal time in observational studies can bias the results in favour of the treatment group, but it is not difficult to identify and avoid

Vaccinations and the Risk of Relapse in Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND There has been some concern that vaccination may precipitate the onset of multiple sclerosis or lead to relapses. Since the recent hepatitis B vaccination program in France, there have been new reports of an increased risk of active multiple sclerosis after vaccination. METHODS We conducted a case-crossover study to assess whether vaccinations increase the risk of relapse in multiple sclerosis. The subjects were patients included in the European Database for Multiple Sclerosis who had a relapse between 1993 and 1997. The index relapse was the first relapse confirmed by a visit to a neurologist and preceded by a relapse-free period of at least 12 months. Information on vaccinations was obtained in a standardized telephone interview and confirmed by means of medical records. Exposure to vaccination in the two-month risk period immediately preceding the relapse was compared with that in the four previous two-month control periods for the calculation of relative risks, which were estimated with the use of conditional logistic regression. RESULTS Of 643 patients with relapses of multiple sclerosis, 15 percent reported having been vaccinated during the preceding 12 months. The reports of 94 percent of these vaccinations were confirmed. Of all the patients, 2.3 percent had been vaccinated during the preceding two-month risk period as compared with 2.8 to 4.0 percent who were vaccinated during one or more of the four control periods. The relative risk of relapse associated with exposure to any vaccination during the previous two months was 0.71 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.40 to 1.26). There was no increase in the specific risk of relapse associated with tetanus, hepatitis B, or influenza vaccination (range of relative risks, 0.22 to 1.08). Analyses based on risk periods of one and three months yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS Vaccination does not appear to increase the short-term risk of relapse in multiple sclerosis.

A meta-analysis of the incidence of malignancy in adult patients with rheumatoid arthritis

IntroductionThe risk of malignancies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has raised some concern, particularly with immunosuppressive approaches to disease management.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis characterizing the associated risk of overall malignancy and four site-specific malignancies (lymphoma, lung, colorectal, and breast cancer) in patients with RA. A Medline search from 1990 to 2007 was conducted using specified search terms and predefined inclusion criteria for identification of relevant observational studies that provide estimates of relative risk of malignancy associated with RA. Study-specific estimates of the relative risk, as measured by standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and estimated in comparison with the general population, were combined using a random effects model.ResultsA total of 21 publications were identified, of which 13 reported the SIR for overall malignancy, 14 for lymphoma, 10 for colorectal, 12 for lung, and 9 for breast cancer. Compared with the general population, the overall SIR estimates suggest that RA patients have approximately a two-fold increase in lymphoma risk (SIR 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80 to 2.39) and greater risk of Hodgkin than non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The risk of lung cancer was also increased with an SIR of 1.63 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.87). In contrast, a decrease in risk was observed for colorectal (SIR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.90) and breast (SIR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.90) cancer. The SIR for overall malignancy was 1.05 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.09).ConclusionPatients with RA appear to be at higher risk of lymphoma and lung cancer and potentially decreased risk for colorectal and breast cancer compared with the general population.

Long-term natural history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: severe exacerbations and mortality

Background The long-term natural history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in terms of successive severe exacerbations and mortality is unknown. Methods The authors formed an inception cohort of patients from their first ever hospitalisation for COPD during 1990–2005, using the healthcare databases from the province of Quebec, Canada. Patients were followed until death or 31 March 2007, and all COPD hospitalisations occurring during follow-up were identified. The hazard functions of successive hospitalised COPD exacerbations and all-cause mortality over time were estimated, and HRs adjusted for age, sex, calendar time and comorbidity. Results The cohort included 73 106 patients hospitalised for the first time for COPD, of whom 50 580 died during the 17-year follow-up, with 50% and 75% mortality at 3.6 and 7.7 years respectively. The median time from the first to the second hospitalised exacerbation was around 5 years and decreased to <4 months from the 9th to the 10th. The risk of the subsequent severe exacerbation was increased threefold after the second severe exacerbation and 24-fold after the 10th, relative to the first. Mortality after a severe exacerbation peaked to 40 deaths per 10 000 per day in the first week after admission, dropping gradually to 5 after 3 months. Conclusions The course of COPD involves a rapid decline in health status after the second severe exacerbation and high mortality in the weeks following every severe exacerbation. Two strategic targets for COPD management should include delaying the second severe exacerbation and improving treatment of severe exacerbations to reduce their excessive early mortality.

Metformin and the Risk of Cancer: Time-related biases in observational studies

OBJECTIVE Time-related biases in observational studies of drug effects have been described extensively in different therapeutic areas but less so in diabetes. Immortal time bias, time-window bias, and time-lag bias all tend to greatly exaggerate the benefits observed with a drug. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS These time-related biases are described and shown to be prominent in observational studies that have associated metformin with impressive reductions in the incidence of and mortality from cancer. As a consequence, metformin received much attention as a potential anticancer agent; these observational studies sparked the conduction of randomized, controlled trials of metformin as cancer treatment. However, the spectacular effects reported in these studies are compatible with time-related biases. RESULTS We found that 13 observational studies suffered from immortal time bias; 9 studies had not considered time-window bias, whereas other studies did not consider inherent time-lagging issues when comparing the first-line treatment metformin with second- or third-line treatments. These studies, subject to time-related biases that are avoidable with proper study design and data analysis, led to illusory extraordinarily significant effects, with reductions in cancer risk with metformin ranging from 20 to 94%. Three studies that avoided these biases reported no effect of metformin use on cancer incidence. CONCLUSIONS Although observational studies are important to better understand the effects of drugs, their proper design and analysis is essential to avoid major time-related biases. With respect to metformin, the scientific evidence of its potential beneficial effects on cancer would need to be reassessed critically before embarking on further long and expensive trials.