Sándor Szalai

TRENDS OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Changes in maximum and minimum daily temperatures (TMAX and TMIN, respectively) in nine selected regions of central Europe and in Bulgaria during 1951–1990 are investigated. Average series for central Europe are compiled and analyzed by linear trend analysis and the kernel smoothing. The increase in the annual TMAX in central Europe was, during 1951–1990, slightly lower than that of TMIN (0ċ52°C and 0ċ60°C, respectively). This results in a small decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) by −0ċ08°C. With the exception of the spring TMIN other linear trends are insignificant. The observed insignificant trends in DTR in the central European region are related to small cloudiness changes. Long-term fluctuations of annual TMAX, TMIN, and DTR for eight selected series during the twentieth century are also investigated.

Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such “shifts” in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.

Climate Change Adaptation in the Carpathian Mountain Region

The Carpathian mountain region is one of the most significant natural refuges on the European continent. It is home to Europe’s most extensive tracts of montane forest, the largest remaining virgin forest and natural mountain beech-fir forest ecosystems. Adding to the biodiversity are semi-natural habitats such as hay meadows, which are the result of centuries of traditional land management. Like other mountain regions areas, the Carpathian mountain region provides important ecosystem goods and services such as water provision, food products, forest products and tourism. But these ecosystem services are feared to be under threat from climate change.