Sandra L. Haire

Effects of landscape patterns of fire severity on regenerating ponderosa pine forests (Pinus ponderosa) in New Mexico and Arizona, USA

Much of the current effort to restore southwestern ponderosa pine forests to historical conditions is predicated upon assumptions regarding the catastrophic effects of large fires that are now defining a new fire regime. To determine how spatial characteristics influence the process of ponderosa pine regeneration under this new regime, we mapped the spatial patterns of severity at areas that burned in 1960 (Saddle Mountain, AZ) and (La Mesa, NM) 1977 using pre- and post-fire aerial photography, and quantified characteristics of pine regeneration at sample plots in areas where all trees were killed by the fire event. We used generalized linear models to determine the relationship of ponderosa pine stem density to three spatial burn pattern metrics: (1) distance to nearest edge of lower severity; (2) neighborhood severity, measured at varying spatial scales, and (3) scaled seed dispersal kernel surfaces. Pine regeneration corresponded most closely with particular scales of measurement in both seed dispersal kernel and neighborhood severity. Spatial patterns of burning remained important to understanding regeneration even after consideration of subsequent disturbance and other environmental variables, with the exception of a few cases in which simpler models were equally well-supported by the data. Analysis of tree ages revealed slow progress in early post-fire years. Our observations suggest that populations spread in a moving front, as well as by remotely dispersed individuals. Based on our results, recent large fires cannot be summarily dismissed as catastrophic. We conclude that management should focus on the value and natural recovery of post-fire landscapes. Further, process centered restoration efforts could utilize our findings in formulating reference dynamics under a changing fire regime.

Wilderness shapes contemporary fire size distributions across landscapes of the western United States

In many U.S. federally designated wilderness areas, wildfires are likely to burn of their own accord due to favorable management policies and remote location. Previous research suggested that limitations on fire size can result from the evolution of natural fire regimes, specifically in places where fuels were recently reduced by previous burning. To explore the broader-scale importance of fire management on wilderness landscapes, we selected three study regions representing diverse ecosystems in the western U.S. and modeled the change in fire size distributions across a gradient defined by wilderness/non-wilderness boundaries. For randomly selected locations across the gradient, we derived a scaling parameter (α) using fire size-frequency data for public lands (1984–2007); the parameter reflected the magnitude of change in the right tail of the fire size distribution where the largest fires reside. We then used quantile regression to model changes in α across the wilderness gradient, interpreting the results in terms of constraints on the relative role of large fires in structuring the fire size distribution. In the Southwest study region, the influence of large fires on size distributions decreased across the gradient toward wilderness at some places, suggesting that increased occurrence of natural burning, favored by wilderness management, led to limitations on fire sizes within recent timeframes. In contrast, we were unable to support the expectation that wilderness fire management limits the role of large fires in the Sierra Nevada and Northern Rockies study regions. Rather, the predominance of large fires increased toward wilderness interiors. Among spatial climate and topographic roughness variables included in our study, only winter and fire season precipitation limited fire size in the Northern Rockies, whereas several constraints on large fire occurrence operated in other regions. In southwestern ecosystems, evidence is needed to document stability in fire size distributions through time. In ecosystems of the Sierra Nevada and Northern Rockies, a longer temporal extent of observations may better match scales of disturbance and recovery. Our findings reflect the role of wilderness in addressing a fire deficit which has resulted from strong human influences on forests and fires over the past 150 years.

An evaluation of a weaning index for wild fishers (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) in California

Abstract Conservation concern for fishers (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) in the Pacific states has highlighted a need to develop cost-effective methods of monitoring reproduction in extant and reintroduced fisher populations. We evaluated the efficacy of nipple size as a predictive index of weaning success for females with known reproductive histories from 3 study areas in California. We captured and radiocollared 91 female fishers on 146 occasions between 2004 and 2011 and measured the width and height of all 4 nipples and quantified reproductive status via radiotelemetry. We classified each radiomarked female into 1 of 3 reproductive classes (nonbreeders, attempted breeders, and current breeders) based on our telemetry observations during the den season prior to capture. We used a modified random forests (RF) procedure to account for repeated measures of individual females sampled in multiple years. Our modified RF procedure correctly classified reproductive class for 130 (89%) and 131 (90%) of our 146 observations using raw and weighted vote totals, respectively. We calculated Cohens kappa of 0.80 and 0.81 using raw and weighted vote totals, respectively, indicating strong model performance. We conclude that nipple sizes of female fishers measured during a livetrapping effort can be used as a cost-effective index of the weaning rates of adult female fishers.