Sandra Moore

Using Mobile Phone Data to Predict the Spatial Spread of Cholera

Effective response to infectious disease epidemics requires focused control measures in areas predicted to be at high risk of new outbreaks. We aimed to test whether mobile operator data could predict the early spatial evolution of the 2010 Haiti cholera epidemic. Daily case data were analysed for 78 study areas from October 16 to December 16, 2010. Movements of 2.9 million anonymous mobile phone SIM cards were used to create a national mobility network. Two gravity models of population mobility were implemented for comparison. Both were optimized based on the complete retrospective epidemic data, available only after the end of the epidemic spread. Risk of an area experiencing an outbreak within seven days showed strong dose-response relationship with the mobile phone-based infectious pressure estimates. The mobile phone-based model performed better (AUC 0.79) than the retrospectively optimized gravity models (AUC 0.66 and 0.74, respectively). Infectious pressure at outbreak onset was significantly correlated with reported cholera cases during the first ten days of the epidemic (p < 0.05). Mobile operator data is a highly promising data source for improving preparedness and response efforts during cholera outbreaks. Findings may be particularly important for containment efforts of emerging infectious diseases, including high-mortality influenza strains.

Deciphering the Origin of the 2012 Cholera Epidemic in Guinea by Integrating Epidemiological and Molecular Analyses

Cholera is typically considered endemic in West Africa, especially in the Republic of Guinea. However, a three-year lull period was observed from 2009 to 2011, before a new epidemic struck the country in 2012, which was officially responsible for 7,350 suspected cases and 133 deaths. To determine whether cholera re-emerged from the aquatic environment or was rather imported due to human migration, a comprehensive epidemiological and molecular survey was conducted. A spatiotemporal analysis of the national case databases established Kaback Island, located off the southern coast of Guinea, as the initial focus of the epidemic in early February. According to the field investigations, the index case was found to be a fisherman who had recently arrived from a coastal district of neighboring Sierra Leone, where a cholera outbreak had recently occurred. MLVA-based genotype mapping of 38 clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor isolates sampled throughout the epidemic demonstrated a progressive genetic diversification of the strains from a single genotype isolated on Kaback Island in February, which correlated with spatial epidemic spread. Whole-genome sequencing characterized this strain as an “atypical” El Tor variant. Furthermore, genome-wide SNP-based phylogeny analysis grouped the Guinean strain into a new clade of the third wave of the seventh pandemic, distinct from previously analyzed African strains and directly related to a Bangladeshi isolate. Overall, these results highly suggest that the Guinean 2012 epidemic was caused by a V. cholerae clone that was likely imported from Sierra Leone by an infected individual. These results indicate the importance of promoting the cross-border identification and surveillance of mobile and vulnerable populations, including fishermen, to prevent, detect and control future epidemics in the region. Comprehensive epidemiological investigations should be expanded to better understand cholera dynamics and improve disease control strategies throughout the African continent.

Genomic history of the seventh pandemic of cholera in Africa

Wave upon wave of disease The cholera pathogen, Vibrio cholerae, is considered to be ubiquitous in water systems, making the design of eradication measures apparently fruitless. Nevertheless, local and global Vibrio populations remain distinct. Now, Weill et al. and Domman et al. show that a surprising diversity between continents has been established. Latin America and Africa bear different variants of cholera toxin with different transmission dynamics and ecological niches. The data are not consistent with the establishment of long-term reservoirs of pandemic cholera or with a relationship to climate events. Science, this issue p. 785, p. 789 Multiple waves of local outbreaks and pandemic cholera indicate independence from climate change and marine reservoirs. The seventh cholera pandemic has heavily affected Africa, although the origin and continental spread of the disease remain undefined. We used genomic data from 1070 Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates, across 45 African countries and over a 49-year period, to show that past epidemics were attributable to a single expanded lineage. This lineage was introduced at least 11 times since 1970, into two main regions, West Africa and East/Southern Africa, causing epidemics that lasted up to 28 years. The last five introductions into Africa, all from Asia, involved multidrug-resistant sublineages that replaced antibiotic-susceptible sublineages after 2000. This phylogenetic framework describes the periodicity of lineage introduction and the stable routes of cholera spread, which should inform the rational design of control measures for cholera in Africa.

No Evidence of Significant Levels of Toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in the Haitian Aquatic Environment During the 2012 Rainy Season.

Background: On October 21, 2010, Haiti was struck by a cholera epidemic for the first time in over a century. Epidemiological and molecular genetic data have clearly demonstrated that the bacterium was imported. Nevertheless, the persistence of the epidemic for more than two years, the high incidence rates in some coastal areas and the seasonal exacerbations of the epidemic during the rainy seasons have prompted us to examine the levels of toxigenic Vibrio cholerae in the Haitian aquatic environment. Methods: In July 2012, during the warm and rainy season, 36 aquatic stations were sampled to search for toxigenic V. cholerae. These stations included fresh, brackish and saline surface waters as well as waste water; the sampling sites were located in both rural and urban areas (around Port-au-Prince and Gonaïves) located in the West and Artibonite Departments. V. cholerae bacteria were detected in enrichment cultures of water samples (sample volumes included 1 L, 100 mL, 10 mL, 1 mL, 0.1 mL, 0.01 mL and 0.001 mL depending on the context). Detection methods included both culture on selective agar (for strain isolation) and PCR assays targeting the genes ompW (V. cholerae species), O1-rfb and O139-rfb (O1 and O139 V. cholerae serogroups, respectively), and the cholera toxin gene ctxA, which is present exclusively in toxigenic cholera strains. Results: A total of 411 culturable V. cholerae isolates from 29 stations were obtained via selective culture; however, only one of these isolates displayed a late positive reaction with polyvalent anti-O1 serum. Positive V. cholerae PCR results were obtained from each of the 32 tested stations (a total of 77 enrichments out of 107 yielded a positive result); only one sample yielded a positive V. cholerae O1 PCR result. The cholera toxin gene ctxA was never detected via PCR with either primer pair, which includes samples derived from the two stations yielding positive O1 culture or positive O1 PCR results. Therefore, we could not demonstrate the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 among the 36 stations sampled. This suggests that all water samples analyzed contained less than 10 toxigenic V. cholerae O1 bacteria per liter, a level 1000-fold below the dose that has been shown to provoke cholera in healthy adults. Conclusions: Currently, there is no evidence of a significant level of contamination of the aquatic environment in Haiti by the imported toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strain. The reemergence of cholera outbreaks in Haiti during rainy seasons is therefore more likely due to persisting outbreaks insufficiently tackled during the dry periods rather than the commonly suspected aquatic reservoir of toxigenic bacteria.

The Dry Season in Haiti: a Window of Opportunity to Eliminate Cholera Citation Revisions Authors

Background: Since the beginning of the cholera epidemic in Haiti, attack rates have varied drastically with alternating peak and lull phases, which were partly associated with the fluctuating dry, rainy and cyclonic seasons. According to a study conducted in 2012, the toxigenic V. cholerae O1 strain responsible for the outbreak did not settle at a significant level in the Haitian aquatic environment. Therefore, we hypothesize that some areas of lingering cholera transmission during the dry season could play an important role in the re-emergence of outbreaks during the rainy season. Our objective was therefore to describe the dynamics of cholera and assess the fight against the disease during the dry season. Methods: A field study was conducted from February 19 to March 29, 2013. After identifying the affected communes by analyzing the national cholera database, we visited corresponding health facilities to identify patient origins. We then conducted a field assessment of these foci to confirm the presence of cholera, assess factors associated with transmission and examine the activities implemented to control the epidemic since the beginning of the current dry season. Results: We found that the great majority of Haitian communes (109/140) presented no sign of cholera transmission in February and March 2013. Suspected cases were concentrated in a small number of urban and rural areas, almost all of which were located in the northern half of the country and often in inland locales. In these areas, community health activities appeared insufficient and were often inappropriately targeted. Out of 49 analyzed foci, only 10 had benefited from at least one intervention involving the distribution of water treatment products together with an awareness campaign since December 2012. Conclusion: Cholera continues to affect Haiti as observed in early 2013; however, activities implemented to interrupt cholera transmission appear insufficient and poorly suited. This deficiency in the fight against cholera, especially at a period when transmission is weak, may explain the persistence of cholera even in the absence of significant aquatic reservoirs in Haiti.

Relationship between Distinct African Cholera Epidemics Revealed via MLVA Haplotyping of 337 Vibrio cholerae Isolates

Background Since cholera appeared in Africa during the 1970s, cases have been reported on the continent every year. In Sub-Saharan Africa, cholera outbreaks primarily cluster at certain hotspots including the African Great Lakes Region and West Africa. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, we applied MLVA (Multi-Locus Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis) typing of 337 Vibrio cholerae isolates from recent cholera epidemics in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zambia, Guinea and Togo. We aimed to assess the relationship between outbreaks. Applying this method, we identified 89 unique MLVA haplotypes across our isolate collection. MLVA typing revealed the short-term divergence and microevolution of these Vibrio cholerae populations to provide insight into the dynamics of cholera outbreaks in each country. Our analyses also revealed strong geographical clustering. Isolates from the African Great Lakes Region (DRC and Zambia) formed a closely related group, while West African isolates (Togo and Guinea) constituted a separate cluster. At a country-level scale our analyses revealed several distinct MLVA groups, most notably DRC 2011/2012, DRC 2009, Zambia 2012 and Guinea 2012. We also found that certain MLVA types collected in the DRC persisted in the country for several years, occasionally giving rise to expansive epidemics. Finally, we found that the six environmental isolates in our panel were unrelated to the epidemic isolates. Conclusions/Significance To effectively combat the disease, it is critical to understand the mechanisms of cholera emergence and diffusion in a region-specific manner. Overall, these findings demonstrate the relationship between distinct epidemics in West Africa and the African Great Lakes Region. This study also highlights the importance of monitoring and analyzing Vibrio cholerae isolates.

Antimicrobial Drug Resistance of Vibrio cholerae, Democratic Republic of the Congo

We analyzed 1,093 Vibrio cholerae isolates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo during 1997–2012 and found increasing antimicrobial drug resistance over time. Our study also demonstrated that the 2011–2012 epidemic was caused by an El Tor variant clonal complex with a single antimicrobial drug susceptibility profile.

Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months

The n e w e ng l a n d j o u r na l of m e dic i n e c or r e sp ondence Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months To the Editor: The World Health Organization (WHO) Ebola Response Team (Oct. 16 issue) 1 predicted that the current Ebola epidemic would claim a dreadful 20,000 combined cases by early November 2014, assuming no change in the con- trol measures applied in West Africa. The threat that Ebola poses to national public health and social, economic, and security foundations may worsen if a secondary epidemic eventually ex- plodes in the region. Since June 2014, nearby Ghana has been affected by a serious cholera epidemic that was responsible for 12,622 cases as of September 6. 2 Current cholera and Ebola zones are separated by Ivory Coast, a frequent crossing point for commuters traversing West Africa. To effectively control cholera epidemics, specialized treatment centers, access to potable water, sani- tation, and community hygiene awareness are critical. However, in Ebola-affected areas, quaran- tine units are overwhelmed, many health facili- ties are dysfunctional after the desertion by staff members who fear viral contamination, and it has become increasingly dangerous to conduct awareness campaigns owing to violence against health and humanitarian workers accused of this week’s letters 188 Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months 189 Goal-Directed Resuscitation in Septic Shock 191 Malpractice Reform and Emergency Department Care 193 Physiological Approach to Acid–Base Disturbances 196 Inefficacy of Platelet Transfusion to Reverse Ticagrelor spreading Ebola. Likewise, neglecting to rapidly control this cholera epidemic in Ghana could have unpredictable yet potentially devastating consequences. Stanislas Rebaudet, M.D., Ph.D. Assistance Publique–Hopitaux de Marseille Marseille, France Sandra Moore, M.S., M.P.H. Renaud Piarroux, M.D., Ph.D. Aix–Marseille University Marseille, France renaud.piarroux@ap-hm.fr No potential conflict of interest relevant to this letter was re- ported. 1. WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa — the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projec- tions. N Engl J Med 2014;371:1481-95. 2. Cholera outbreak in the West and Central Africa: regional update, 2014 (week 35). New York: UNICEF (http://www.unicef .org/cholera/files/Cholera_regional_update_W35_2014_West_ and_Central_Africa.pdf). DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc1413884 To the Editor: The WHO Ebola Response Team describes the epidemiology of Ebola virus dis- ease (EVD) in West Africa using anonymized pa- tient-level data generated from EVD surveillance in multiple countries. These data document the demographic profile of patients with EVD, their risk factors, and the course of their illness. We regret that the WHO neither makes this data set publicly available nor provides an interface to ex- tract customized tabulations. Such data sharing could accelerate the discovery of key factors in the epidemic and could yield insight into the eco- nomic and demographic drivers of the outbreak. It would also permit a better assessment of pos- sible control scenarios. Current models of EVD transmission 1,2 are parameterized with the use of outdated data from much smaller Central Afri- can outbreaks, which limits their applicability to West Africa. Some patient-level data sets collect- n engl j med 372;2 nejm.org january 8, 2015 The New England Journal of Medicine Downloaded from nejm.org at UC SHARED JOURNAL COLLECTION on January 11, 2015. For personal use only. No other uses without permission. Copyright

The national alert-response strategy against cholera in Haiti: a four-year assessment of its implementation

Background A massive cholera epidemic struck Haiti on October 2010. As part of the national cholera elimination plan, the Haitian government, UNICEF and other international partners launched a nationwide alert-response strategy from July 2013. This strategy established a coordinated methodology to rapidly target cholera-affected communities with WaSH (water sanitation and hygiene) response interventions conducted by field mobile teams. An innovative red-orange-green alert system was established, based on routine surveillance data, to weekly monitor the epidemic. Methodology/Principal findings We used cholera consolidated surveillance databases, alert records and details of 31,306 response interventions notified by WaSH mobile teams to describe and assess the implementation of this approach between July 2013 and June 2017. Response to red and orange alerts was heterogeneous across the country, but significantly improved throughout the study period so that 75% of red and orange alerts were responded within the same epidemiological week during the 1st semester of 2017. Numbers of persons educated about cholera, houses decontaminated by chlorine spraying, households which received water chlorination tablets and water sources that were chlorinated during the same week as cholera alerts significantly increased. Alerts appeared to be an interesting and simple indicator to monitor the dynamic of the epidemic and assess the implementation of response activities. Conclusions/Significance The implementation of a nationwide alert-response strategy against cholera in Haiti was feasible albeit with certain obstacles. Its cost was less than USD 8 million per year. Continuing this strategy seems essential to eventually defeat cholera in Haiti while ambitious long-term water and sanitation projects are conducted in vulnerable areas. It constitutes a core element of the current national plan for cholera elimination of the Haitian Government.

Dynamics of cholera epidemics from Benin to Mauritania

Background The countries of West Africa are largely portrayed as cholera endemic, although the dynamics of outbreaks in this region of Africa remain largely unclear. Methodology/Principal findings To understand the dynamics of cholera in a major portion of West Africa, we analyzed cholera epidemics from 2009 to 2015 from Benin to Mauritania. We conducted a series of field visits as well as multilocus variable tandem repeat analysis and whole-genome sequencing analysis of V. cholerae isolates throughout the study region. During this period, Ghana accounted for 52% of the reported cases in the entire study region (coastal countries from Benin to Mauritania). From 2009 to 2015, we found that one major wave of cholera outbreaks spread from Accra in 2011 northwestward to Sierra Leone and Guinea in 2012. Molecular epidemiology analysis confirmed that the 2011 Ghanaian isolates were related to those that seeded the 2012 epidemics in Guinea and Sierra Leone. Interestingly, we found that many countries deemed “cholera endemic” actually suffered very few outbreaks, with multi-year lulls. Conclusions/Significance This study provides the first cohesive vision of the dynamics of cholera epidemics in a major portion of West Africa. This epidemiological overview shows that from 2009 to 2015, at least 54% of reported cases concerned populations living in the three urban areas of Accra, Freetown, and Conakry. These findings may serve as a guide to better target cholera prevention and control efforts in the identified cholera hotspots in West Africa.