Sandro Bologna

Towards intelligent decision support systems for emergency managers: the IDA approach

The paper presents ENEAs next step towards the development of Intelligent Decision Support Systems (IDSS) for large-scale industrial and territorial emergencies. The prototype IDA (Intelligent Decision Advisor) for emergency management in an oil port is analysed as a test case. The work was performed under the national R&D MICA project and specifically ENEAs long-term strategic MINDES Program synchronised with indications of the worldwide GEMINI (Global Emergency Management Information Network Initiative) of the G7 Committee. IDA is an approach in designing intelligent agent-based kernels of IDSS. In the frame of the generic TOGA (Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach) model of abstract intelligent agents, IPK (Information, Preferences, Knowledge) architecture was employed. The specific IDA objectives were to develop and verify the properties of an information-managed agent and a knowledge managed agent, where the latter should suggest an action or plan after every new significant event in the emergency domain. The IDA functional kernel is composed of three simple agents a DirectAdvisor, which interacts with the human user and emergency domain, an InfoProvider, which manages information and intervention goals and an IDAPlanner, which plans adequate interventions. For the design, UML (Unified Modelling Language) has been employed. MDP (Markov Decision Process) and CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) are used for planning crisis management actions. Owing to a generic agent model and object-based conceptualisation, the IDA system should be adaptable to the different roles of emergency managers. The obtained results confirm the IPK conceptualisation hypothesis and provide a concrete technological experience for the next step towards high-intelligent DSSs for the management of emergencies.

An Integrated Approach For Simulating Interdependencies

The detailed simulation of interdependent critical infrastructures is a hard problem. Major challenges include modeling multiple heterogeneous infrastructures in a single framework and expressing internal dependencies and interdependencies between infrastructures. This paper attempts to address these issues by proposing a simulation framework where several sector-specific simulators (vertical simulators) are integrated into a general simulation environment (horizontal simulator). Specialized software implemented in the vertical simulators models individual infrastructures and their intra-domain dynamics. The horizontal simulator effectively captures inter-domain relationships and merges heterogeneous information from the vertical simulators to facilitate comprehensive infrastructure simulations.

Safeguarding information intensive critical infrastructures against novel types of emerging failures

Abstract The complexity of information intensive critical infrastructures, like electricity networks, telecommunication networks and public transportation networks is today augmented much more than in the past: such complexity augments the number of possible failures and anomalous working conditions and consequently decreases the survivability of the infrastructures. In this paper, the possibility is investigated to detect early anomalies and failures inside information intensive critical infrastructures by the introduction of anomaly detectors being “self-aware” about the normal working conditions of the infrastructure itself. This approach has the objective to improve the performance of the most popular signature-based algorithms for intrusion detection, and makes use of different classes of time-oriented algorithms based on artificial intelligence paradigm. It has the advantage to work also in presence of unknown and unexpected types of attacks or failures. The tests, to evaluate the performance of the utilised detectors, are executed inside an emulated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system of an electrical power transmission grid, and a proposal for the future integration inside real SCADA systems is also reported.

Analysing interdependencies of critical infrastructures using agent discrete event simulation

The paper explores the possibility of using interacting agents for modelling and discrete event simulation as a tool to approach interdependencies analysis and evaluation for critical infrastructures. A discrete event simulation system was developed, using agent-oriented programming, considering the following limited sets of critical infrastructures: a great hospital infrastructure, a railway transportation infrastructure and other public transportation infrastructures. Faults inside the electricity distribution system are simulated, producing electrical power outages whose duration could be variable with respect to time and space, and generating consequences inside the transportation infrastructures. The hospital infrastructure users, such as different types of physicians, nurses, subsidiary personnel, students and patients are also modelled using agent oriented architectures. The objective of the simulations is to study and analyse the interdependencies of the considered infrastructures Many typologies of test scenarios are also executed and the severity of the generated consequences are analysed in the paper.

Dependability and Survivability of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures

This paper refers to research activities related to SAFEGUARD project (IST Project Number: IST-2001-32685). The aims of the project is to examine LCCI’s in terms of nature of different facets in each infrastructure: organizational, computational (cyber) and physical layers. Critical inter-dependencies among layers can thus be analyzed. Possible impact of bad events, early classified in attack scenarios with and without SAFEGUARD, will be coped with countermeasures to maintain at acceptable level system’s operability. SAFEGUARD, an agent-based middleware, is conceived to operate embedded inside of the cyber-layers, the more sensitive part to malicious attacks and anomalies, and is designed to enhance dependability and survivability of a LCCI. Self-healing mechanism of SAFEGUARD agents will start with the trouble diagnosis and classification using Hybrid Intrusion Detection techniques (software instrumentation, novelty detection, etc.). Once the problem has been diagnosed, a number of techniques will be used to solve and repair the fault (i.e.: adaptive middleware technology, backup, hot standby and so on). More self-healing mechanisms will have to be combined and coordinated to with an attempt to deal with the source of the problem.

Knowing power grids and understanding complexity science

Complex networks theory has been well established as a useful framework for studying and analysing structure, dynamics and evolution of many complex systems. Infrastructural and man-made systems like power grids, gas and water networks and the internet, have been also included in this network framework, albeit sometimes ignoring the huge historical body of knowledge surrounding them. Although there seems to exist clear evidence that both complexity approach in general, and complex networks in particular, can be useful, it is necessary and profitable to put forward some of the limits that this scheme is facing when dealing with not so complex but rather complicated systems like the power grid. In this introductory paper, we offer a critical revision of the usefulness of the complexity and complex networks’ approach in this later case, highlighting both its strengths and weaknesses. At the same time we emphasise the disconnection between the so called complex and the more traditional engineering communities as one of the major drawbacks in the advent of a true body of understanding, more than simply knowing the subtleties of this kind of complex systems.

Methodologies for inter-dependency assessment

We report on an recent European Project aimed at assessment of suited Methodologies to measure interdependencies between the Electric and the ICT System. Based on best practices and available data, several different metrics have been defined. Depending on the methodology involved, three main types of metrics can be identified; namely “topological”; “system theory based” and “simulation based” metrics. The selected methodologies have been applied to the Roma Area electric and communication system. Results from all the different approaches are discussed. All metrics provide quantitative measures of the inter-dependence between both the two systems and their components. In addition to the established metrics, a novel “spectral” metric has been introduced specific for cascade effects. Such an innovative methodology has also been applied to the US Power Grid and results compared with those from the Roma Area.

An overview of r&d activities in europe on critical information infrastructure protection (CIIP)

In recent years there has been an increasing R&D interest in critical infrastructures and their protection. However, this represents a still very immature field of research with very fuzzy and confused boundaries. This paper reports an initial overview of R&D activities in Europe on this topic to illustrate the state of art and to emphasize the major areas of research but also to identify the most relevant lacks.

Verification and Validation Program for a Distributed Computer System for Safety Application

Abstract The importance of a Verification & Validation (V&V) program, to affirm the reliable operation of computer systems in real time safety applications, is widely recognized. To ensure consistent, traceable, and auditable high performance of the individuals involved in the V&V program, several pragmatic issues such as quality of documentation, details and staging of activities, etc. should be resolved prior to the practical application of the V&V program This paper presents the V&V program established for the development of 16-bit, microprocessor-based distributed safety systems, for application to the safety of nuclear power plants and especially tailored for the Italian plants. The development project, which is under the responsibility of Westinghouse, has the participation of various Italian organizations, each contributing in different areas of expertise

Safety applications of programmable electronic systems in the process industry

Abstract Scope of the paper is to provide indications of todays best practices on safety applications of computer based systems and the impact of emerging standards. Starting in the early 1970s, the potential benefits and problems of such systems are recognised. Since then, standards and guidelines have been proposed to regulate the application of computer to perform safety functions. Among them all there is a common agreement that safety of critical systems can only be properly addressed in the overall system context. No single method can be considered sufficient to achieve the safety features required in many safety applications. The paper is intended to cover those aspects, which need to be addressed when programmable electronic systems are used to achieve functional safety within the process sector.