Sanjay G. Reddy

Has World Poverty Really Fallen

We evaluate the claim that world consumption poverty has fallen since 1990 in light of alternative assumptions about the extent of initial poverty and the rate of subsequent poverty reduction in China, India, and the rest of the developing world. We use two poverty indicators: the aggregate headcount and the headcount ratio, and consider two widely-used international poverty lines (

Chinese Poverty: Assessing the Impact of Alternative Assumptions

1/day and

Learning to Learn: Undoing the Gordian Knot of Development Today

2/day). We conclude that, because of uncertainties in relation to the extent and trend of poverty in China, India, and the rest of the developing world, global poverty may or may not have increased. The extent of the estimated increase or decrease in world poverty is critically dependent on the assumptions made. Our conclusions highlight the importance of improving the quality of global poverty statistics.

Global Development Goals: The Folly of Technocratic Pretensions

This paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2004 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. Our methodology focuses on the following sources of variation: purchasing power exchange rates (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative levels and distributions of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of different income groups, and alternative spatial and temporal price indices. We report national, urban and rural poverty estimates corresponding to distinct assumptions. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction took place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be largely robust to the choice of assumptions, although estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty, and therefore of world poverty, in any year are greatly influenced by this choice.

The Estimation of Poverty and Inequality through Parametric Estimation of Lorenz Curves: An Evaluation

The authors, specialists in development, argue that what they call dirigisme—an a priori set of requirements for economic development—has led to the preeminence of the strong and the exclusion of the weak. They advocate a learning-centered approach to development, which in turn emphasizes the contributions of both demand and supply to economic development.

The Role of Apparent Constraints in Normative Reasoning: A Methodological Statement and Application to Global Justice

This article argues that, although effective strategic choices for achieving global development goals need to be based on assessments of the costs and benefits of alternative approaches, existing methods of arriving at such assessments are highly unreliable, in particular deriving from implausible and restrictive assumptions and often depending on data of poor quality, and on the pretence that the future can be adequately known. Such weaknesses can be mitigated, but not easily overcome, without abandoning deeply held technocratic presumptions.

How Not to Count the Poor

Poverty and inequality are often estimated from grouped data as complete household surveys are neither always available to researchers nor easy to analyze. In this study we assess the performance of functional forms proposed by Kakwani (1980a) and Villasenor and Arnold(1989) to estimate the Lorenz curve from grouped data. The methods are implemented using the computational tools POVCAL and Sim-SIP, developed and distributed by the World Bank. To identify biases associated with these methods, we use unit data from several household surveys and theoretical distributions. We find that poverty and inequality are better estimated when the true distribution is unimodal than multimodal. For unimodal distributions, biases associated with poverty measures are rarely larger than one percentage point. For data from multi-peaked or heavily skewed distributions, the biases are likely to be higher and of unknown sign.

Inter-country Comparisons of Poverty Based on a Capability Approach: An Empirical Exercise

The assumptions that are made about the features of the world that are relatively changeable by agents and those that are not (constraints) play a central role in determining normative conclusions. In this way, normative reasoning is deeply dependent on accounts of the empirical world. Successful normative reasoning must avoid the naturalization of constraints and seek to attribute correctly to agents what is and is not in their power to change. Recent discourse on global justice has often come to unjustified conclusions about agents’ obligations due to a narrow view of what is changeable and by whom.