Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi

What is the Best Approach to Measure the Interdependence between Different Markets

In order to measure the interdependence between different markets, we investigate and compare different measures of dependence including cross-correlation, conditional correlation, concordance and correlation in tails. In the latter case, we use the notion of copula and we define two kinds of diagnoses which enable us to adjust the joint empirical tail distribution in the case of two or three markets for the best copulas. In particular, this approach makes it possible to understand the evolution of the interdependence of more than two markets in the tails, in particular, when extremal values (which correspond to a shock) induce some turmoil in the evolution of the markets.

Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated Sticky Price Model of the US Economy

In this paper, we, seek to characterize the dynamic effects of permanent technology shocks and the way in which US monetary authorities reacted to these shocks over the sample 1955(1)--2002(4). To do so, we develop an augmented sticky price-sticky wage model of the business cycle, which is estimated by minimizing the distance between theoretical, dynamic responses of key variables to a permanent technology shock and their structural VAR counterparts. In a second step, we compare these responses with the outcome of the optimal monetary policy.

Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated Sticky Price Model of the Euro Area

In this paper, we seek to characterize the dynamic effects of permanent technology shocks and the way in which European monetary authorities reacted to these shocks over the past two decades. To do so, we develop an augmented sticky price-sticky wage model of the business cycle, which is estimated by minimizing the distance between theoretical, dynamic responses of key variables to a permanent technology shock and their structural VAR counterparts. In a second step, we conduct a counterfactual experiment consisting to compare these responses with the outcome of the optimal monetary policy. A significant discrepancy emerges between these responses, suggesting the European monetary authorities might not have responded optimally to permanent technology shocks.

Are Business and Credit Cycles Converging or Diverging? A comparison of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Euro Area

This paper provides an analysis of co-movements between real and financial variables in three new EU member countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and the euro area. It focuses on the co-movement between real credit granted to firms and real industrial output on the one hand, and between the aforementioned variables and a monetary policy indicator (the three-month real interest rate) on the other. Given that there is no single definition for the business cycle, we take three different approaches: we identify the turning points in the series and then estimate a concordance index; we decompose and compare the cyclical components of the series; and we calculate dynamic correlations across the variables. We find a better convergence of real than financial cycles between the new EU members and the euro area. There is no a high degree of dependence between loans and industrial output in all countries; yet, monetary policy appears to smooth the distribution of credit throughout the cycles.

Central Bank Liquidity and Market Liquidity: The Role of Collateral Provision on the French Government Debt Securities Market

We examine the effects of collateral provision as a potential channel between funding liquidity tensions and the scarcity of market liquidity. This channel consists in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants that bear new liquidity risk on the market associated with collateral. In particular, we address the issue of the liquidity of the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. We use a time-varying transition probability (TVTP) VAR model considering both the monetary policy cycle and the cycle of French treasury auctions. We highlight the existence of a specific regime in which monetary policy neutrality is not verified on the market for French bonds. Moreover, the existence of conventional and unconventional regimes leads to asymmetries in monetary policy implementation.

Macro Stress Testing with a Macroeconomic Credit Risk Model: Application to the French Manufacturing Sector

The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilsons CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic scenarios. We implement two simulation procedures based on two assumptions relative to probabilities of default (PDs): in the first procedure, firms are assumed to have identical default probabilities; in the second, individual risk is taken into account. The empirical results indicate that these simulation procedures lead to quite different loss distributions. For instance, a negative one standard deviation shock on output leads to a maximum loss of 3.07% of the financial debt of the French manufacturing sector, with a probability of 99%, under the identical default probability hypothesis versus 2.61% with individual default probabilities.

Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts

In this paper, we study the co-movements between stock market indices and real economic activity over the business cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two complementary approaches in our analysis. First, we identify the turning points in real economy indicators and stock market indices and determine the extent to which these series co-move. Second, we calculate the correlations between the cyclical components of real economy indicators and excess returns, on the one hand, and the correlations between the structural components and these indicators, on the other. We then analyse the co-movements between three-month interest rates and the cyclical and structural components of the real economy and stock market indices.

The Dynamics of Bank Loans Short-Term Interest Rates in the Euro Area: What Lessons Can We Draw from the Current Crisis?

We analyze the dynamics of the bank interest rates on the new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in seven countries of the euro area (France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Our specification is based on a multivariate diffusion model, involving factors and stochastic volatilities. In the application, we use a harmonized monthly database collected by the national central banks of the Eurosystem, over the period January 2003-November 2012. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chains Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Unlike the results on spot rates in the empirical financial literature, we find that bank interest rates do not display evidence of mean reversion, and that the variance increases with the level of the bank rates only for a few countries. Moreover, we notice that the correlations between changes in the rates are not constant over the whole time period, and peak during the last months of 2008. Afterwards, they return more or less quickly to their previous level for some countries, while they remain lower for others. From this standpoint, the patterns within the euro area became more heterogeneous after the years 2008-2009

The Money Demand Function for the Euro Area: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper sets out to re‐examine the money demand function for the euro area. Traditional specifications often yield unsatisfactory results: instability of short and long‐term coefficients; relatively large differences between estimated and actual value of variables; and significant changes in the number of long‐term relationships, etc. Using a standard Vector Error Correction Model, we find that the usual specification is indeed unstable. However, introducing a European equity price gives rise to a more stable system. Furthermore, recursive estimates confirm the relative stability of long‐term coefficients. Estimates of the real money gap, based on the money demand equation including equity prices, point to moderate, albeit persistent, excess liquidity in the euro area in recent years. The real money gap contains information about future inflation but this content may have diminished since 2001.

The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the market for collateral: The case of the French bond market

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. In our time-varying transition probability Markov-switching (TVTP-MS) model, we highlight the existence of two regimes. In one of them, which we refer to as the conventional regime, monetary policy neutrality is verified; in the other, which we dub the unconventional regime, monetary policy operations lead to volatility and liquidity premia on the collateral market. The existence of these conventional and unconventional regimes highlights some asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy.